u.s former firm modernist says trials
of its corona virus vaccine candidate
show
it is 95 percent effective it's the
second company to announce
successful trials after pfizer and
biontech last week
it'll still take time for the actual
vaccine to be certified but
already there's the question will there
be enough to go around
well lyontech and pfizer and moderna are
hoping to distribute a billion or more
doses
during the next year huge numbers when
you compare it to the likes of germany's
curavac
which is aiming to produce up to 400
million doses
of its candidate in 2021
and prices well they'll vary massively
uk-based astrazeneca is planning to
charge the eu perhaps as little as
three dollars a dose johnson and johnson
is a bit more expensive but the two
front
runners biontech pfizer and moderna are
expected to charge significantly more
because theirs are more expensive to
produce
kurovak is yet to say how much its
candidate
will costs so prospects
of a working vaccine appear to be
promising but
where do we go from here let's bring in
kosovsky he's the
chief economist for germany and austria
at ing bank welcome to the program
carson
um two hopeful candidate candidates
which still
lacks certification though experts said
a vaccine by the
end of the year would be essential uh
in order to go forward and not see more
economic damage
but that's a close call we're in the
middle of november
we're getting closer there but i would
agree with these experts because that's
also we have in our base case scenario
so
our base case scenario sees this soft
patch especially in europe
a contraction in the fourth quarter some
stabilization in the first
quarter next year but everything is
based really on this vaccine on this
vaccine
being rolled out in the course of the
first half of next year
if this doesn't happen then we're in a
completely different play
then we would not talk about a recovery
in 2021 but a really a
long lasting stagnation all right let's
try to stay
positive here i mean even if the vaccine
is there it'll
take time to distribute it'll obviously
take time to vaccinate all the people
how much of a challenge is this interim
phase
the interim phase we're in this interim
phase already and we see that this is a
challenge just see what what the
german government was discussing namely
a possible
um making the lockdown measures even
stricter
we just last weekend we had austria
going for a stricter lockdown now in
europe we even have sweden
going into a strict lockdown so you know
there's this typical saying of
things will first have to get worse
before they get better i think this
is very typical for this interim phase
in which we're in right now a very tough
winter
and then with the with the silver lining
off a vaccine
in the first half of next year we would
also have the prospect for people
to really hang in there and then get
this the recovery but currently
the really short-term outlook is clearly
not very positive
the german government has said so far
tighter restrictions
in order to rein in the pandemic are
likely to slow the recovery
but not stall it do you agree
not entirely to be honest because we saw
that the service sector
had already been slowing down towards
the end of the third quarter
so we entered the fourth quarter now
with an enormous hit
from first more social distancing that
now since the beginning of november
really a new lockdown so the the
domestic part of the economy consumption
services will be in contraction so the
only wild card is manufacturing and
exports
which had been benefiting a lot from
this strong rebound in the chinese
economy
it's hard to tell whether this rebound
will be sufficient
to avoid a contraction in the fourth
quarter
i personally when i look at the data so
far i think it's yes it is a close call
but our call is that we will see a
contraction of the german economy a mild
contraction
nothing compared to what we saw in
springtime but it is a mild contraction
in the fourth quarter
kashmirsky of ing thank you for your
thoughts this morning
so the development of a covet 19 vaccine
seems to be making
hopeful progress and of how
to distribute it are also underway
logistics officials call it the mission
of a century
we wanted to see what it looks like at
the rossier
cargo hub at france's biggest airport
child ago
this is where the global airlift begins
at france's largest airfreight hub rossi
preparations for transporting a covid19
vaccine are in full swing
hundreds of thousands of doses have to
be stored at very low temperatures
then shipped from here to destinations
around the world
it's a herculean task for florence in
charge of the airport's pharmaceutical
freight section
the temperature inside is 52 degrees
celsius
minus 80 is possible but not easy
behind the scenes airlines are also
gearing up for the global airlift
thousands of planes and workers will be
needed for the operation
it's important to keep things running as
smoothly as possible
we check each step so the deliveries are
in the right place at the right time
once a consignment gets the green light
it has to happen quickly
the vaccine must be kept deeply frozen
in a complex logistics system
we know there'll be a lot of traffic
arriving at hwasi because it's the major
cargo airport in france
and europe but the planes will also have
to land in other regional airports close
to where patient delivery is needed
the vaccine's still not ready for market
but test runs are underway for what the
aviation industry calls the mission
of the century