Mood music has shifted a little bit more optimistic from the people that have sat
in your seat. Nigeria is expected to grow by three
point seventy five percent this year. That's a bit ambitious, isn't it?
What are you going to deliver in a tough year for 2023?
Well, for 2023, we're looking at a group of three point five percent and we're
looking at closing 2020 to around the same number as well.
So waiting for our last quarterly reports to come out.
Growth has slowed down a bit in the third quarter of 2022.
And therefore, we have had to moderate our
year and projections to reflect that that decline.
What's going to drive 2020? 3 4.
If you've had to moderate in Q4, what drives what drives this year forward?
What drives 2023 forward is increase revenues from the non oil sector and
also the beginning of the pick up of revenues from the oil sector itself.
I'm sure you know though, we've had some problems regarding production and but
the production has picked up and it's going to it's looks good
to continue to reach the numbers that we have put in the budget.
So we hope so. What do you think what you think Nigeria
will produce in terms of oil this year? What's realistic?
I know Medicare is going after the oil thieves.
What can you deliver in terms of oil production?
Our target is one point six million barrels per day.
And that comfortably achieve that that we can comfortably achieve that.
We're about one point two five, one point three.
Now average off. So we should be able to reach that and
hopefully we surpass that as well with the measures that have been put in
place. Did you have full electioneering mode
and the election is hot on our heels? Would you say your party has done enough
to win re election inflation? It's a global problem, but that's
double. Growth has slowed to just an average of
one point one percent from 2015 when you took over.
You've done enough to convince the public to put you back in office.
We have done a lot. We've done a lot in terms of taking care
of the people, increasing that infrastructure stock, holding the
economy to grow on a consistent basis. Despite two recessions, we pulled out of
recession quickly and set the country back from the path of it.
We've also done a lot in terms of being able to provide for our people at the
time that people need help the most. But the.
The accusation back to that that that political narrative is that debt and
debt sustainability is probably the single biggest issue.
Nigeria is now spending 80 percent of its revenue on debt servicing last year.
I'm African. That's going to break a hundred percent.
That is not sustainable. You've not got a sustainable debt
trajectory. Well, 80 percent is not sustainable.
And our plan is it's being is coming down to 60 percent in 2023.
And how are we doing that? We're doing that by increasing revenues
and by reducing significantly reducing costs to enable us.
But that's going to hit the real economy as it is.
You've got to pull costs out. That's going to hit the people on the
ground there. There are some costs that we can pull
back on that will not hit the economy. But there are some costs that we must
sustain, such as provisions for education and health as well as
infrastructure. So you would defend robustly that you're
in a sustainable debt sustainability. I just I'm struggling with that.
We are sustainable in our debt trajectory.
We have made our plans to make sure we're able to consistently service our
debts. And by the way, we're also exiting for a
subsidy, which is a huge cost. I'm part of the contributors to where we
are in terms of the debt stock. So once we pull the first subsidy out of
production of crude oil increases and then we sustain the improvements we have
put in place in terms of non oil revenue, then we should be able to come
down to 60 percent debt to revenue.
Does that open up the bond markets for you again?
If I look at the yield movement, the current year is at a low enough for you
to consider a euro bond issue. This you're not not 2023.
No, you're not in the bond market 2023, not changing to three.
What do you need to get to for you to think?
Yes. Well, back in power, I can get back to
the bond market. International debt market will go back
to the rates of early 2021. Then we can consider going back to the
bond market. But then we are consistently monitoring
the bond market. We're monitoring the performance of our
bonds. So when he gets to that comfortable
level, we will exploit liquidity.
Hi. Hi.
How big an issue is liquidity for you? Is it getting tough?
Is it getting tight? It is tough.
It's an election year is also a year where we have planned a census in April.
So those are two very large funds that we have early in the first quarter of
this year. Under President Buhari, the bill for
running the country is at 50 billion dollars.
I want to deal with this in a couple of different ways.
That to many people is something which is just very unsustainable.
Are you talking to the World Bank, the IMF, any multilateral agencies about any
help or relief on your debt? We have been able to get support from
the World Bank, from the IMF during the Covid, from the IMF.
We got support of the SDR. So we have two runs of it.
Yes, that had helped us a great deal. And is there more to come?
Are you in active negotiations for more? So there's this generic negotiation
about another round of S.T. ISE.
We are part of a group that is asking for that and we do hope it comes because
it would benefit all of the emerging economies as well as the low income
countries. How close are you to a significant
announcement on not from the multilateral?
Could it be before the election? No, I don't think so.
I don't think so, so we just want to wait and see what happens in the spring
meetings. If I look at the currency side, you
know, we talk about liquidity being tight.
So are the bond market a currency which has dropped by more than 10 percent.
Many currencies have had the same tough time.
Is it a deliberate move by the government to embolden that weakening of
the currency? Well, it is a plan of the monetary
authority, and it was planned carefully and implemented.
Most people even say slowly, but we are where we are.
And of course, what happens to the U.S. dollar affects us as well.
Of course, the dollar has come off for up upfront from its peak.
Is it time to dump those multiple exchange rates?
I mean, just cost you 144 billion between 2017 and 2021.
Is it time to dump and run on the multiple exchanges?
Right now we have one. Forman My then effects where trading is
done, and that is the rates that we use for official exchanges as well.
So if I get any dollar inflows, that's where it is monetize as well as any
outflows I have is monetize also at that I need a new window.
So we have only one window that is an efficient window.
I mentioned 50 billion dollars. The story that we wrote yesterday under
President Buhari. Maybe we'll talk about the ways, means
advances from the central bank. Your government is not asking the
National Assembly to convert that debt in part of that debt into a bond to be
repaid over 40 years. The question politically, I suppose, and
from markets is, is that legal? What do you say to the critics of that
of that strategy? It is legal.
It is legal. And we couldn't do it earlier on because
there was limitations as provided in the fiscal responsibility.
But in the 20 21 finance, we actually need an amendment that is enabling us to
do that. Now, we could have done this politically
palatable to ask the country to pay this bill.
It is the necessary two thing to do and it is the right thing to do.
We don't want to live this for another administration to come.
So what we have also is a situation where this will provide significant
fiscal relief because it's bringing down the cost of service in the ways of
medicine. Very significant.