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The earth goes through periodic cooling periods known as Ice Ages, with the last Ice Age ending
a few tens of thousands of years ago.
Today we are resting comfortably in the middle of a mild climate period, which means moderate
winters in most places around the world and year-long sunshine in California.
But today we're also capable of changing the environment artificially, and are already
doing so via uncontrolled release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere which are warming
the planet.
But with thousands of nuclear weapons around the world primed to detonate, that warming
trend could very quickly reverse and send us straight into a man-made ice age.
Hello and welcome to another episode of The Infographics Show- today we're asking: how
can we survive a nuclear winter?
The legendary astrophysicist Carl Sagan co authored a paper in the 1980s called Climate
and Smoke: An Appraisal of Nuclear Winter.
In this earth-shattering essay, Sagan and his partner, James B. Pollack, studied the
physical effects a nuclear war would have on our planet, and discovered that not only
would such a war devastate nations, but it could potentially disrupt the global climate.
By vaporizing debris and filling the atmosphere with ash, soot and aerosols, a nuclear war
would result in global dust clouds that would block the sun's rays for years, preventing
the sun's energy from reaching the surface of the planet.
This would trigger a cascade cooling effect which would plummet global temperatures by
as much as 22 degrees Celsius- turning sunny California into something more akin to blustery
Seattle.
The world would enter an artificial ice age.
Though recent studies have shown that Sagan and Pollack's original estimates may have
been a bit overzealous, our environment is incredibly fragile and even a ten degree drop
in temperature would have dramatic repercussions.
Not only would lower temperatures severely shorten growing seasons for crops, but all
of that blocked sunlight would send weather and ocean current patterns that help keep
the world mild today into disarray.
The North Atlantic Drift is an ocean current that brings warm water heated by the sun in
the equator into northern Europe, which in turn is why Europe is so far north yet enjoys
mild weather and warm summers.
With a decline in sunshine this current will completely shut down, and without warm water
being circulated around Europe and into the Mediterranean, Europe would begin to see weather
closer to what is common in Canada today.
Spain and France's famous summertime beach destinations would be a thing of the past,
and in fact pretty much the entire Mediterranean would be far too chilly to go for a swim in.
But it wouldn't be just sunny beaches that are a casualty of a nuclear winter- the North
Atlantic Drift also helps bring favorable weather for growing crops to Europe, and without
it Europe would experience a catastrophic crop collapse during what little growing season
may be left due to all the dust in the atmosphere.
The east coast of the US is also dependent on ocean currents for its mild weather, and
a global cooling that reached the equator would shut down the Gulf Stream along the
US's shores.
Originating in the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf Stream circulates warm water up along the
east coast of the US and into southern Canada, helping bring mild temperatures to the area
during spring and summer.
Chilly temperatures would be hard enough to deal with, but all of that blocked sunlight
would then also shorten growing seasons for crops.
With much reduced sunlight, humanity would be unable to grow enough crops to feed everyone
alive today, and mass starvation would ensue.
If current stockpiles of non-perishable goods could be evenly and fairly distributed- a
doubtful circumstance in a post-apocalyptic world- it's possible that the majority of
the population could survive a short-term nuclear winter.
The length and severity of a nuclear winter would ultimately depend on the amount of weapons
exchanged between combatants, but even a small, regional exchange of just a few hundred low-yield
weapons is estimated to plunge the earth into a ten year nuclear winter.
Even with today's large stockpiles of non-perishable goods, there's simply no way the majority
of the population could survive a decade of famine.
Those that do survive however would face crippling vitamin and mineral deficiencies, leading
to disease and illness which would further decimate humanity's plunging population.
In the midst of a nuclear winter you'd probably be delighted to see a few shafts of sunlight
through clouds full of choking dust- but beware, that sunlight could be lethal.
That's because a nuclear war would destroy the ozone layer, meaning there would be very
little protection from the sun's harmful UV rays.
Unless you slather up in the most powerful sunscreen you can find, basking in the sun
for too long will result in severe sunburns and cancers.
Your eyes would be especially sensitive to that intense UV radiation, and it would be
vital to wear goggles or sunglasses with UV filters in order to keep yourself from going
blind.
Because UV rays can damage your eye without you even feeling it, your vision could become
severely impaired without you realizing what was happening until it was too late.
A nuclear winter would clearly be a nightmare scenario, but it might be survivable- after
all your ancestors already did.
That's right, you are the descendant of a very small group of humans who survived an
ancient nuclear winter.
75,000 years ago a supervolcano in modern-day Lake Toba, Sumatra, erupted with a fury equivalent
to thousands of nuclear bombs, and was 100 times greater than the 1815 eruption of Mount
Tambora which resulted in 1816's “year without a summer”.
Injecting six billion tons of sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere, the eruption dropped
global temperatures by 3-5 degrees Celsius for three years, and further cooling lasting
decades.
Though scientists differ on the severity of the cooling, the Toba supereruption is widely
credited with creating a genetic bottleneck in human evolution, during which the human
population dropped suddenly to a surviving population of only about 3,000 to 10,000 individuals.
So though a nuclear winter sounds bad, know that you are already genetically predisposed
to survive one!
But how exactly can you help your odds of survival?
First you'll want to tackle your greatest threat: the cold.
Insulating your home will be critical to keeping warm, and if you don't know anything about
insulation or construction, now is a good time to learn at least how to use spray foam
insulation materials.
Fuel supplies will run critically low very quickly, and even trees may become scarce
if there's not enough sunlight for them to grow- you're going to want to keep out as
much cold as possible, while keeping in as much heat as you can at all times.
Secondly you'll want to secure a fresh water drinking supply.
A nuclear winter may paradoxically not necessarily result in snow, as disrupted weather patterns
and a lack of evaporation, and thus precipitation, may turn the world into a frozen desert.
Even if there is snow where you are though, it is likely to be highly contaminated with
radioactive or other particles from the trillions of tons of debris ejected into the atmosphere
by the nuclear bombs.
Emergency water filters will be critical for your health, as well as water purification
tablets and possibly iodine pills for radiation poisoning.
It goes without saying that intense radiation will also be a hazard, but you are in fact
not very likely to be irradiated in a nuclear winter as long as you stay out of ground zero
blast zones.
That's because a nuclear weapon is designed to air burst- or explode several hundred to
a few thousand meters above its target.
This is because if the bomb were to explode on the ground, the blast wave would be mitigated
by terrain and buildings, severely limiting the explosive potential of a nuclear bomb.
High up in the air though a blast wave can spread for several miles without being dampened
by hilly terrain or dense clusters of buildings.
An airburst detonation will also ensure that the majority of the radiation from an explosion
will actually be projected upwards into space, while a ground burst detonation will irradiate
millions of tons of soil which will be carried by the wind.
So stay out of large craters and you shouldn't be turning into a Fallout-style Ghoul anytime
soon.
Your third concern will be to secure a food supply.
This may be trickier than finding water or keeping warm as even perishable goods will
quickly become scarce, and with most nuclear weapons aimed at major manufacturing and distribution
centers it's unlikely you'll find much that will be safe to scavenge without irradiating
yourself.
Hunting and fishing may seem a viable alternative, but the world operates on a complex food web
with organisms feeding on each other, and at the very bottom of that food web sits the
sun.
It doesn't matter if you're a polar bear or an antarctic leopard seal, the food you eat
inevitably eats food that in turns eats something that grows thanks to the sun.
Polar bears for instance hunt seals, who in turn hunt small fish, who in turn feed on
krill or plankton which depend on the sun.
Global food chains will collapse inevitably, but with a severely diminished population
you just might be able to eke out enough hunting and fishing to survive.
If not, well, there's always billions of freshly barbequed human bodies laying around.....
A nuclear winter would decimate civilization, and possibly drive humanity to the brink of
extinction- but this isn't a threat we haven't faced before.
As the Toba super volcano showed us, we as a species have what it takes to survive and
thrive in the face of any disaster, and with these catastrophes acting as genetic bottlenecks,
our children will be even more capable of surviving whatever the future throws at them.
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How would you survive a nuclear winter?
What would be your action plan?
Let us know in the comments.
Also, be sure to check out our other video what to if there is a nuclear explosion.
Thanks for watching, and as always, don’t forget to like, share and subscribe.
See you next time.