This is Rummy’s Corner.
Coming up on September 25 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England, Anthony Joshua
will put his unified IBF/WBA/WBO heavyweight championship on the line against former undisputed
cruiserweight world champion Oleksandr Usyk.
The last time we saw AJ in action was in December of last year, when he scored a 9th round knockout
against Kubrat Pulev.
The last time we saw Usyk in action was in October of last year, when he was awarded
a 12 round unanimous decision in a workmanlike effort against Dereck Chisora.
So who will win the upcoming heavyweight championship contest between Anthony Joshua and Oleksandr
Usyk?
The big question going into this one is whether or not Usyk has the size and strength to be
successful at heavyweight.
Usyk is undefeated and is the former undisputed cruiserweight world champion, having successfully
unified all four major alphabet belts of today - the WBO, WBC, WBA, and IBF.
Usyk is one of just five boxers to have ever unified all 4 belts of this day in any weight
class.
Generally speaking, cruiserweight champions who try their luck at heavyweight aren’t
typically successful at the highest level.
In fairly recent years, David Haye won an alphabet trinket when he defeated Nikolai
Valuev.
And of course the gold standard here is Evander ‘Real Deal’ Holyfield.
Holyfield was the first ever undisputed cruiserweight champion having successfully unified all three
major belts in his day, back before the WBO was a major world title.
And Evander ultimately became undisputed heavyweight champion as well, and he became a 2-time lineal
heavyweight champion and won a portion of the heavyweight title a record 4 times.
Holyfield is the big standout here.
He is the only cruiserweight champion who had prolonged success at the highest level
at heavyweight.
So the odds would seem to be against Usyk here, although it is worth noting that Usyk
is the only undisputed cruiserweight champion we have had since Evander.
In that light, perhaps Usyk’s odds are better than any cruiserweight champion we’ve seen
test his luck at heavyweight following Holyfield’s cruiserweight reign
Usyk did what he needed to do against Witherspoon, which was his first fight at heavyweight following
his impressive reign at cruiserweight.
Against Chisora he put forth a consistent and effective effort to secure a 12 round
unanimous decision.
The victory against Chisora, however, was far from easy.
Chisora made a strong account of himself and was able to really test Usyk.
At times Chisora was effectively applying pressure, and he never stopped trying.
But for the most part Usyk was able to do a better job dictating the fighting range
and he was clever with picking his spots.
The upside here for Usyk in this performance is that Chisora was a challenging stylistic
test, and Usyk passed.
For AJ he bounced back after losing his championship titles in a shocking upset loss at the hands
of Andy Ruiz Jr.
That was in June 2019, and AJ has fought twice since then.
He defeated Ruiz Jr by a lopsided 12 round unanimous decision in their rematch in December
2019.
And then Joshua had the very impressive effort against Pulev late last year.
That one blemish aside against Ruiz, AJ is putting together a quality heavyweight career
where he is now in the midst of potentially building a legacy for himself.
More importantly, he avenged his only loss, and it appears that AJ has learned from the
mistakes he made against Ruiz Jr and is now boxing with greater discipline and intelligence
inside the squared circle.
Regarding the question of whether Usyk has the size and strength to be successful at
heavyweight, I believe the answer is YES.
Absolutely.
Usyk is a very tricky customer once he finds his rhythm.
He has a good skill set, outstanding footwork, an exceptional ring IQ, and an ample bag of
tricks that compliment these attributes.
Usyk isn’t this tiny helpless cruiserweight moving up.
While he may be giving up a few inches in height and reach, the differences themselves
are not insurmountable.
That’s not to say that size might not play a factor in this fight, but I would hardly
say it will be the deciding factor.
And I for one, am fully expecting an elite level tactical match-up that is ultimately
decided by skills, smarts, and strategy.
The key here for AJ is to prevent Usyk from ever even establishing his rhythm.
Usyk is sometimes a bit of a slow starter before he properly adjusts his range and timing.
So in order to prevent him from finding his rhythm, I do not believe AJ will be able to
just stay outside and jab at range.
If that is his basic strategy, it might allow Usyk the opportunity to adjust and find his
groove.
I think the best gameplan for AJ is to mix up his attacks - at times he will need to
box at range, where he often excels at setting traps.
But at times AJ may want to break character and apply more pressure.
AJ is normally more of a boxer than a pressure fighter, but he is good at mixing it up on
the inside.
Aj doesn’t need to reinvent the wheel here, just mix things up enough that Usyk has trouble
building any momentum.
Sometimes he will want to take the initiative, but other times he’ll want to try and make
Usyk come to him, where he will have a chance to either catch him on the way in or scrap
in close where he can attempt to use his larger mass to his advantage.
AJ will likewise want to pace himself and fight in a defensively responsible manner,
because even though Usyk isn’t known as a powerhouse puncher, he has exceptional timing
and makes great use of angles.
The key here for Usyk is to try find his rhythm as quickly as possible.
In order to do this, Usyk needs to utilize his biggest advantages - namely, footwork
and footspeed, quicker pivots that allow him to attack out of his southpaw stance from
unusual angles, and his superior stamina.
If Usyk is going to have any real chance of winning, it all starts and ends with his quicker
feet.
His stamina can play to his advantage too, both in terms of activity and also in terms
of pressing his attack whenever AJ tries slowing the pace to get a breather.
In that sense, Usyk’s best chance might be to prolong the fight while remaining competitive,
where his advantages could potentially shine brighter later in the contest.
If Usyk can discover his range and timing early on, he can try and selectively push
the pace in an effort to slow AJ down later on.
But Usyk will also want to fight in a defensively responsible manner.
Usyk has quicker feet and better overall movement, but AJ has deceptively fast hands.
So Usyk cannot afford to get careless, especially in the event he does discover a nice rhythm.
If Usyk can make it through the first few rounds without getting seriously hurt I think
he has a serious chance of winning here.
In my honest opinion, Oleksandr is the most talented and skilled boxer AJ will have faced
since he beat Wladimir Klitschko more than 4 years ago.
I think this is going to be a fiercely competitive tactical chess match with some seriously explosive
moments along the way.
These guys both have the mindset of a true champion.
And at the end of the night, I wouldn’t be surprised if this one winds up being competitive
enough that it warrants a rematch, or perhaps even ends in a draw.
All of that being said, for my official prediction I am taking Anthony Joshua by a close but
competitive decision.
I think AJ might have to dig deep in this one and overcome some adversity along the
way, but in the end I think AJ will be triumphant in what I expect will be a tactical battle
of attrition.
Whatever happens, this is a very intriguing battle between two of the best heavyweights
in the world today.
Whoever wins this one deserves full credit!
I cannot wait for this matchup, May the best man win on that night, and in an ideal world,
hopefully the winner can go on to face the winner of Fury-Wilder 3.
But I’m not holding my breath.
So who do you think will win between Anthony Joshua and Oleksandr Usyk?
Please share your thoughts in the comments section.
Thanks for watching everyone, I hope you enjoyed, and have a wonderful night.
This is Rummy’s Corner.