chances are you've heard the old saying in some form or another it is a capital
mistake to theorize before one has data inevitably one twists facts to suit
theories rather than theories to suit facts I've
mentioned that quote many times in various videos as a reminder but today
we're going to go more in depth with that concept and how to practically
apply it chances are also pretty good that your
primary use of the skill of deduction is going to be in relation to people it is
the most readily advantageous application and many other applications
of the skill set still involve people in some way or another because much of what
we do as social creatures with an interconnected society involves
interaction with humans in some way shape or form in light of that we're
going to go back to a concept I made a video on quite some time ago a concept
that I've subsequently had some time to polish and that is organizing the way in
which you observe people
in the Arthur Conan Doyle Sherlock Holmes stories Holmes tells Watson that
when observing a person the first thing that he looks for on a woman is the hem
of her sleeve and for a man the knee of his trousers this makes sense in 19th
century London when factory and other manual labor jobs dominated by a male
working force would have had men on their knees quite a lot working with
machinery and women still primarily homemakers as dictated by society would
do more quote unquote delicate work that primarily involved the use of the hands
such as baking sewing ironing etc let it be noted that the great detective was
certainly not trying to step on any toes as we see he has a great deal of respect
for capable woman in his adventures but he saw the world for what it was and
knew the probability dictated certain things based on traditional gender roles
being such a dominant force in society as you can see his system was about
efficiency in the 21st century much has changed in the last century and a half
factory workers have been replaced with automation women have been given the
right to vote and traditional generals for men and women in society have become
less strict today the average day to day activities of men and women have become
more similar even in traditional nuclear families it is typical for both the
mother and the father to be working full time furthermore the middle class has
risen and dangerous factory jobs have been replaced with more skilled labor
and subsequently higher education rates in light of this I propose a different
system than that which Holmes implemented one they can be applied to
both men and women and is geared more towards modern activities before we go
into the system however I want to explain a bit about the relationship
between observation and theorization and why it is important to effectively
manage observations to accurately theorize when observing a person it can
be tempting to observe a few pieces of data and then condense them into a
singular theory and then move on to observing more data and condensing that
new data into a separate theory and so thus say 12 data points can be
condensed into three theories about different aspects of the person which
can then be cross-referenced with one's knowledge base in deductive fashion this
is a tempting shortcut because our conscious mind can't divide its
attention and the short-term memory can only juggle about seven items at a
time thus condensing observations in two sets and quote-unquote working as
you go is an effective way to manage a lot of data in theory this system can
work as long as all the data points in the set are connected to each other and
that there are no connections between data across sets if the former is not
the case then you were adding in irrelevant information to a data set
thus confusing possible theories if the latter is the case then you are not
looking at all the relevant information at once thus missing crucial pieces of
data in your analysis think of it like mixing the pieces of two puzzles with
each other because this system favors speed over accuracy the data
organization is likely going to be governed by intuition and as we have
discussed before intuition can be wrong quite a lot but you might be asking how
can one person be divided into multiple sets of data anyway it isn't all the
data observable on them relevant to that person and you would be correct but to
say that because of this data sets are not at all applicable to people is
essentially adopting a very one-dimensional idea of what a person is
and does while this intuitive system is not one that should be employed
nevertheless data sets are a part to a more complete system take for instance
the example of a man who wakes up and gets ready for work at the same time as
his wife he gives her a hug as they both head out and they drive off to work
separately he arrives at work and gets to selling cars then after work he goes to
a hobby shop and picks up a model car set and goes home to work on it you meet
him in the evening picking up groceries let's say that your friend that you're
with is acquainted with the man and introduces you you shake his hand and
notice that there is dried but not super strong glue on the tips of his fingers
you smell both men's deodorant and a woman's perfume and on his left hand you
observe a wedding ring lastly you notice that he is very adept at conversation
and seems quite charismatic now the question is do all these observations
point to one thing or do each point to a separate thing the smell of a woman's
perfume on a man who is already wearing deodorant suggests that he was in close
quarters with a woman when perfume was applied paired with the wedding ring
suggests that he is married this data set gives a glimpse into his
interpersonal relationships the weak glue on his fingertips suggests
that he was using glue on something small but it was not necessarily to
repair something as he would have used a stronger glue so you make theorize that
he as a hobby for model construction or something similar this dataset gives us
insight into his hobbies and interests and lastly his charisma and adeptness
at social interaction indicates that he might have a job that requires
person-to-person communication but more specifically in convincing someone to do
something by winning them over this final piece of data gives insight into
his potential occupation obviously this is a very simplified example but it
shows that not all data on a person necessarily points to one conclusion
thus there is a need to prioritize and categorize the problem with the
intuitive system is that you only start off with a handful of observations that
at first stick out to you and assume that they are connected and then move on
to another set of observations and assume that they are also connected in
this system you are already painting the way you will view subsequent data once
you have already decided on the first data set this is because of the
confirmation bias in order to properly categorize observable beta into sets
you need to observe all the data first and then decide which ties to which so
what's my solution a simple system that allows you to observe the bulk of
relevant data on a person in a quick and efficient way I break down a person into
sections sections that are already generally separate categories and will
generally have specific data sets relative to themselves however this
system is meant to be in regards to observation not logic so there's still
plenty of room to see if data from one section is relevant to data from another
section which will more than likely happen note that this observation is
exclusively a visual one while it is best used all of your available senses
to observe because we gather most of our data from sight however categorizing
that data is most important to efficiently manage observations begin by
observing the feet out of all the clothing that we wear shoes carry the
most information with them most people aren't concerned with keeping their
shoes excessively clean barring of course shoes meant for formal occasions
shoes as a result carry information relevant to where we have been walking
and where we walk relates heavily to where we spend our time and thus what we
do secondly move your eyes upward but stop
at the knees kneeling on one's knees is not as common as it was in Holmes' day
in the Western world but when it does happen it can leave telling marks from
bits of dry cereal on the knee of a mother with a messy young child to
grease left on the knee of the mechanic next turn your attention to the person's
hands now this is where our sense of touch can play a role through a
handshake but that is a topic for a whole nother video for now just observe
the hands as we do so many things with our hands there's a lot of data
available on them although since we wash them regularly the information available
will be more recent than that left on shoes more long-term data will be left
under the fingernails however and on jewelry while there is much to be
deduced from a person's hand we don't have time to go into that today for now
I recommend a video by my friend over the channel observe the link to which you
can find in the info card at the upper right hand corner of your screen then
move your eyes to the jacket if they have one jackets are not washed as often
as shirts and pants so they will be left with more data begin at the base of the
sleeves for information that has been potentially washed off from the hand and
move your eyes around the jack and looking for something out of place
look now from the shoulders up look at any markings you can observe such as tan
lines on the neck then observe the countenance of their face their
complexion their eye color hair color hair style shaving habits etc lastly
make a final scan of the person observe the style color and wear and tear on
their clothes their height build and posture
once you have observed all this data it is up to you to see how to categorize it
and put it all together but organizing your observations will make this much
easier this system may be clunky at first but with a few weeks of practice
it shouldn't be long before you can quickly scan a person in this fashion so
with that being said thank you all so much for watching more content along
these lines of practical applications of observation and deduction are coming
very soon so rejoice to all you long time viewers and if you're new and you
liked what you saw be sure to subscribe for those if you learned something
helpful here today be sure to give this video a like if you would like to
support the channel you can donate via my patreon and as always all you
aspiring detectives out there arrivederci