Still a lot of people think that LFP batteries will be in the 4680 form factor.
We have been through this many times.
Elon has said on 3 occassions I can think of, that LFP will not use 4680 form factor.
But I can understand why.
Tesla have spent all this time, capital, resources in researching the ultimate form factor for
their battery.
One of the most important elements of the new battery was that it must have a good enough
energy density to get a decent range for semi trucks.
If we can't power all vehicles electrically, then this whole fossil fuel movement won't
work so well.
There was a lot riding on these batteries.
The other aspect was we needed a lot of range.
Tesla have discovered an application for vehicles that may mean the life usage increases perhaps
10 fold, with a vehicles entering a Robotaxi network.
Therefore we needed a special battery that could handle one million miles without too
much degradation.
Along with manufacturing techniques to get the cost of the battery down significantly.
This battery was so important.
It truly is the biggest break-through technology to date that will take transportation electric.
Anyway, I understand from a manufacturing or engineering perspective how much easier
and better life would be if all Tesla batteries were the same size and form factor, of course
it makes things easier and tidier.
But was Tesla's mission to accelerate the transition as clean and tidy as possible,
or was it more to do it as a fast as possible?
Tesla are currently working with all sorts of form factors currently, and managing.
It is not what is holding the company back.
If growth of Tesla was being stunted by the fact they had to make so many different battery
packs for all the different form factors, then it perhaps it would a good idea.
But that is not what will hold back Tesla, it's going to be the actual battery supply.
Tesla want as many batteries as they can possibly get.
It doesn't matter if its prismatic or cylindrical form factor, although they may refuse pouch
form factors.
I think leave that special one for GM.
Tesla are adapting already to the different form factors.
If they can continue to adapt to more, then it will mean they simply have that many more
batteries available to them.
Yes, ok makes sense, but why can't Tesla make all their other batteries 4680 form factor.
In other words why can't Tesla make their LFP batteries 4680?
The 4680 batteries are designed around what is best for the nickel cathode designed battery.
The entire battery is designed around that specific chemistry, but not only that, it's
also designed around the desired application.
What was the desired application of the 4680 nickel cell?
Like we said, it was to power a long range semi truck, be suitable for Robotaxi miles,
and get the costs down.
Therefore the battery cell was designed to optimize these qualities.
The problem is nickel is too scarce for the number of batteries we need.
But what about LFP batteries, they are not going to be designed for the same intentions.
For example LFP batteries are already a lot cheaper.
Therefore, perhaps there will be less compromises on other elements, in trying to get the prices
down.
The issue with LFP is the energy density.
My theory is that as LFP lacks in density, it will thus be a form factor that generates
the greatest energy density for LFP.
Likely using some of the chemistry we saw on battery day, namely the silicon used in
the anode, thus increasing the lithium-ions you can store in the battery.
Honestly, if Tesla just made a small dent on battery efficiency with LFP, and managed
to improve ranges by 10%, that would be such an insane break through.
The Model 3 standard range with 300 miles.
Yet the cost, well probably another $4,000 saved from CATL LFP to Tesla LFP.
But CATL can't make enough anyway.
This would also mean that Tesla's biggest selling product would now be possible.
It doesn't take much improvement until we see big jumps and more products become feasible.
This would mean that Tesla could offer a decent range in a standard range model y, possibly
above 260 miles of range.
This will be Tesla's best selling product for sometime, maybe ever, at least their best
selling vehicle.
I can't see any other car will outsell that.
Bearing in mind that there is no $25,000 Tesla on the way.
The profit margins on an LFP Model Y sold in the major markets, would be insane, and
they would sell so well.
I know it may be a mess having all sorts of different batteries, and for some reason some
of you really don't like that idea.
Well it's not you who has to sort out all the battery packs for it all.
That's Tesla's problem.
But I imagine they will keep it as tidy as possible, and that the batteries are somewhat
consistent.
e.g. all standard ranges from China will continue to use CATL LFP, but all other standard ranges
use Tesla's LFP.
We would also need the batteries to be structural.
Structural battery packs are the future, which is why the 4680 batteries are so good.
Well not many people seem to know this, but Tesla are already using structural battery
packs with their LFP batteries, in the standard range versions.
That is part of how Tesla were able to do such a good job with LFP by getting the weight
down, making them structural.
Obviously though any batteries Tesla make in-house for vehicles will be structural.
All the batteries Tesla make in-house will be in cylindrical form.
I don't think Tesla have a choice as the manufacturing speed is just that much faster than anything
else, and like I say, Tesla need to make a lot of batteries.
I also heard that cylindrical is the most difficult to work with for the battery manufacturer,
but the easiest to work with for the car manufacturer.
What about the batteries Tesla make that are not for vehicles, that are for energy.
We have a different application here again, we would likely require a different specification
battery.
What's the major difference about batteries required for energy storage and batteries
designed for transport?
Energy density.
Energy storage is not continually moving, it's weight is of little consequence, as is
it's energy density.
Therefore I think Tesla will make another form factor specifically for energy.
I don't think any of you would object to this alternate form factor so much, and surely
you totally understand.
So what qualities are we going to be looking for when it comes to energy?
Well we need a lot of batteries, so whatever it is, it needs to be abundant.
We are very likely talking an iron cathode again.
But we also want these batteries to be cheap, and as they don't need to be energy dense,
then the cost should come down a lot.
Tesla's energy business is still not profitable, because Tesla are using batteries that are
designed for EVs, in energy.
Because no one has really designed a specific volume production battery for energy storage
yet.
I think that's it then, just abundant and cheap.
My current thoughts that potentially Tesla could be looking at sodium-ion batteries instead
of lithium, as sodium is cheaper and more abundant.
So we might see a whole new chemistry there again when it comes to energy.
Then we have the latest chemistry we recently heard on the earnings call, that Tesla are
going to potentially launch.
A manganese based cathode.
This is actually very exciting, as there is enough manganese to make a lot batteries for
vehicles.
It also might serve as the sweet spot, a cost closer to iron, yet still not far off the
energy density that nickel can generate, yet manganese is more abundant.
I think Tesla could potentially make long range 3s and Ys out these manganese batteries.
That's how energy dense they might be.
So this is a very exciting battery potential.
Perhaps the scarce nickel might be used only for semi trucks and then maybe robots too.
All these chemistries and battery forms are exciting, but at the end of the day, it will
come down to how Tesla can manufacturer them.
We need them manufactured at speed.
There are a lot of batteries to make.
But with assortment of batteries and technologies available from Tesla, surely it wont take
long until they are the largest battery manufacturer in the world, my thoughts are by around 2025.
I am sure for sometime at least, Tesla will keep their own batteries for themselves, they
need more than anyone else, and they are move valuable to anyone else, so it makes sense.
There will be some great products coming from these batteries.
I expect a battery day announcement again sometime this year.
It might tie in with the annual shareholder meeting too.
So maybe sometime in October.