.
. >>>
. >>> WALL STREET HAS TAKE KNOW
SEVERAL TWISTS AND TURNS IN
RECENT MONTHS.
RECENT MONTHS. THE TALK OF TARIFFS AND ONGOING
TRADE WAR WITH CHINA.
THERE IS A LOT OF VOLATILITY
THIS SUMMER.
THIS SUMMER. HERE TO TALK MORE ABOUT WHAT IS
AFFECTING YOUR PORTFOLIO IS THE
SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT OF
ADVISORY SERVICES AT SUNTRUST
BANK.
BANK.
BANK. THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.
>> ABSOLUTELY.
>> ABSOLUTELY. >> WE HAVE TONS TO TALK ABOUT.
START WITH TARIFFS.
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. >> GOING INTO, PICTURE
SEPTEMBER 1st, TODAY.
HOW MIGHT THAT EFFECT THINGS,
WE'RE OFF TOMORROW BECAUSE OF A
HOLIDAY.
HOLIDAY.
HOLIDAY. TUESDAY WHEN THE U.S. MARKETS
OPEN, ARE COMPANIES ALREADY
EXPECTING THIS BAKED IN?
>> FOR THE MOST PART, I THINK
COMPANIES CAN'T REACT THAT
QUICKLY.
QUICKLY.
QUICKLY. SO IN THE CASE OF THOSE BUYING
GOODS FROM OVERSEAS, MANY OF
THOSE SEEM TO HAVE, AT LEAST
WHAT THEY'RE TELLING US, BOUGHT
THE GOODS ALREADY AHEAD OF THE
TARIFFS SO THEY WOULDN'T HAVE
TO PAINT THE TARIFFS AND OTHERS
IF THEY WEREN'T ABLE TO
ESSENTIALLY, THEY WILL HAVE TO
EAT IT.
EAT IT.
EAT IT. FOR A LOT OF COMPANIES THEY'RE
NOT ABLE TO AVOID IT J. AND WE
DID, YOU KNOW W SOME OPT
PERFORM ABOUT CHINA SAYING THEY
NOT GOING TO RETAIL IT.
AND I WOULD IMAGINE?
>> AND ABSOLUTELY EXCITED.
AS WE GET TO THE NEXT WEEK AND
THE HOLIDAY, THAT MIGHT BE THE
FIRST THING THAT INVESTORS WILL
TRY TO DIGEST, WHAT IS GOING TO
GO ON WITH THE TARIFFS.
IS THERE GOING TO BE FURTHER
ESCALATION AND WHAT DOES THAT
MEAN FOR MY BUSINESS AND FOR
INVESTORS.
INVESTORS. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR STOCKS?
>> YOU KNOW, SUMMER IS USUALLY,
WE'RE HERE AND GO AWAY.
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. IF YOU CAN THAT THIS YEAR AND
LOOKING AT, IF YOU DID THAT
THIS YEAR AND LOOKING AT THE
MARKS, YOU WOULD PROBABLY BE
SURPRISED.
SURPRISED. THE INVESTORS ARE LOOKING AHEAD
TO WHAT THE FED WILL DO LATER
THIS MONTH.
THIS MONTH. >> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. >> AND LATER INTO DECEMBER.
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. >> WE HEAR HERE LOCALLY, ONE OF
THE LOCAL ECONOMISTS EXPECT
RATE CUTS.
RATE CUTS. >> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. >> WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON
THAT?
THAT?
THAT? YOU
THAT? YOU HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS
BASED ON FUNDAMENTALS?
>> IF YOU LOOK AT THE U.S.
DATA, THERE IS REALLY NO REASON
FOR THE FED TO BE CUTTING ;
HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT ABOUT THE
U.S. THIS IS ABOUT GLOBAL RATES
AND WHERE THINGS ARE AT.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT OTHER KEY
ECONOMIES AROUND THE WORLD.
>> DEALING WITH THEM IN IS.
>> AND NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES,
TRYING TO DEAL WITH THAT.
AND THAT IS PUTTING A LOT OF
PRESSURE ON MARKETS AND THE
FED.
FED.
FED. TO
FED. TO TRY TO ADJUST AND HIT THE
RESET BUTTON ON RATES.
WE EXPECT A COUPLE MORE CUTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR,
PROBABLY IN SEPTEMBER.
THEN LIKELY OCTOBER OR
DECEMBER.
DECEMBER.
DECEMBER. LIKELY TO GET TWO MORE CUTS.
IF WE LOOK AT IT IN
PERSPECTIVE, IN JULY, THERE
WERE 12 CENTRAL BANKS THAT CUT.
IN AUGUST, WE HAVE HAD 12 MORE
RATE CUTS.
RATE CUTS. >> WOW.
>> WOW.
>> WOW. >> AND IT'S REALLY ABOUT
ADJUSTING TO WHAT THE GLOBAL
MARKETS ARE DOING.
>> THERE IS A LOT GOING ON.
WHAT ARE YOU HEARING FROM
COMPANIES IN TERMS OF WHETHER
THEY'RE CONFIDENT MOVING
FORWARD, WHETHER IT'S MMA
ACTIVITY OR INVESTING IN THEIR
COMPANIES.
COMPANIES. A LOT OF COMPANIES IN ATLANTA
DO BUSINESS ALL OVER THE WORLD.
>> ALL OVER THE WORLD.
AND A LOT OF PEOPLE
UNDERESTIMATE ATLANTA, BUT WE
HAVE 72 CONSULATES IN ATLANTA.
VERY GLOBAL MAKEUP OF A LOT OF
BUSINESSES.
BUSINESSES. NOPES, UNCERTAINTY IS TERRIBLE
AS A RULE AND THIS IS NOT
HELPING ON THE DECISION-MAKING
FRONT.
FRONT.
FRONT. SO
FRONT. SO A LOT OF BUSINESSES ARE
TELLING US THEY HAVE A WAIT AND
SEE UNTIL THEY HAVE TO MAKE
INVESTMENTS OR CHOICES.
IN THE CASE OF MMA, IT'S SPOTTY
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR AND THERE
IS A LOT OF WILL HAVE VOL
TILLITY IN MARKETS TO SIT BACK
AND WAIT.
AND WAIT.
AND WAIT. NOT NECESSARILY A GOOD THING.
>> AND NOT AT ALL.
QUICKLY WITH THE FEW MINUTES WE
HAVE LEFT, I WANT TO ASK YOU
ABOUT THE INVERTED YIELD
MARKET.
MARKET.
MARKET. WE HAVE HEARD A LOT ABOUT THAT
AND HOW THAT MEANS THERE MIGHT
BE A RECESSION.
ANY THOUGHTS?
ANY THOUGHTS? >> THE QUICKEST THING IS THIS
TIME IS NOT DIFFERENT.
THE YIELD CURVE HAS REAL
IMPLICATIONS, BUT IT'S ONE
METRIC TO LOOK AT BUT NOT THE
ONLY THING TO LOOK AT.
WE MENTIONED EARLIER THE U.S.
ECONOMY LOOKS GOOD.
ROUGHLY 70% OF THE U.S. ECONOMY
IS U.S. CONSUMERS.
RETAIL SALES LOOK SOLID AND
FROM A U.S. PERSPECTIVE, THINGS
LOOK GOOD.
LOOK GOOD. IT'S THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
THAT ARE REALLY PUSHING DOWN
THIS GLOBAL HUNT FOR YIELD THAT
IS HAPPENING.
IS HAPPENING. THAT IS PUSHING DOWN THE RATES.
IT'S A SIGN AND FLAG, BUT IT'S
NOT THE END-ALL, BE-ALL.
AS FAR AS OUR MODELS, WHAT
WE'RE LOOKING AT, IT LOOKS LIKE
WE'RE GOING TO SKIRT AROUND A
RECESSION AND SLOWING BECAUSE
OF THE GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF WHAT
IS GOING ON, WITH THE TRADE AND
TARIFFS.
TARIFFS.
TARIFFS. ULTIMATELY, WE THINK WE'RE ABLE
TO ESCAPE A RECESSION.
>> THAT IS