>> Stephen: HEY, EVERYBODY, WE ARE BACK WITH JULIA IOFFE.
JULIA, DO YOU HAVE A REACTION TO PEOPLE OFTEN ON THE RIGHT IN THE
UNITED STATES AND MANY PEOPLE ON THE RIGHT WING MEDIA WHO SAY WE
HAVE GOT NO SKIN IN THIS GAME? LIKE WHY ARE WE AGAINST PUTIN?
WHY WOULD YOU DISLIKE PUTIN? WHY WOULD YOU POSSIBLY PULL FOR
UKRAINE? THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE TWO OF THEM, WE SHOULD HAVE NO INVOLVEMENT IN THIS.
THAT IS JUST EASTERN EUROPEAN'S FIGHTING EASTERN EUROPEANS, NO
CONCERN OF OURS. >> I THINK THERE ARE TWO
DIFFERENT STRAIGHTENS, THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO SAY THAT AND TO THEM
I WOULD SAY THAT PEOPLE LIKE PUTIN, PEOPLE LIKE KIM JONG-UN,
THEY RARELY STAY WITHIN THEIR BORDERS.
THEY ALWAYS WANT TO EAT MORE. OR THEY ARE LIKE A SHARK, YOU
EITHER SWIM OR YOU SINK, AND, YOU KNOW, NOW IT IS UKRAINE, HE
MIGHT TRY TO DRAG IN THE BALANCE TICKS WHICH MEANS WE WOULD HAVE
TO GET INTO A WAR WITH RUSSIA BECAUSE WE ARE BOUND BY
OBLIGATION TO DEPEND POLAND. >> Stephen: THAT'S THE WORST
CASE SCENARIO IS ATTACKING A NATO COUNTRY.
>> IT IS HALF OF THE WORST CASE SCENARIO 0.
>> Stephen: THAT'S ONLY HALF A WORST CASE?
>> YES, I AM SORRY. >> Stephen: WHAT IS THE OTHER
HALF. THE OTHER HALF OF THE WORST CASE
AND THIS IS REALLY FUNNY, "FUNNY" BECAUSE I WAS TALKING TO
A PERSON I KNOW IN WASHINGTON WHO IS KIND OF A NEOCON
PERSUASION, WORKED IN THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION ON PUSHING FOR
IRAQ WAR, AND THIS PERSON SAID WELL LOOK, THE GOOD NEWS IS WE
ALSO THOUGHT IRAQ WAS GOING TO BE EASY.
>> Stephen: SO THEY COULD GET BOGGED DOWN.
>> RIGHT. >> Stephen: AND PROLONGED
OCCUPATION OF UKRAINE? >> YEAH.
THEY GET FOOLED BY A SHOCK AND AWE SITUATION WHERE THEY QUICKLY
DECAPITATE THE GOVERNMENT, INSTALL A PUPPET REGIME, I DON'T
KNOW, ZELENSKY AND TRY HIM FOR WAR CRIMES AND THEN SLOWLY AN
INSURGENCY STARTS BUILDING, IN FACT THE U.S. HAS BEEN HELPING
UKRAINIANS TRAIN FOR THESE KIND OF, FOR THIS KIND OF SCENARIO,
TEACHING THEM THE THINGS THAT THE U.S. LEARNED IN IRAQ WHEN IT
WAS FIGHTING INSURGENCY SO WE ARE TEACHING THEM KIND OF THE
SAUDI BRIGADE METHODS, AND THEN WE CAN GET DRAGGED IN WITH A
NATO COUNTRY, SO -- >> Stephen: SO THAT'S THE FULL
WORST CASE, SCENARIO? >> AND I AM SORRY.
>> Stephen: THAT IS ONLY TWO-THIRDS OF THE WORST CASE?
>> TWO-THIRDS. >> Stephen: WHAT IS LAST
THIRD? BECAUSE YOU ARE AT HEART FROM
RUSSIA AND BORN IN RUSSIA, THIS IS YOUR WORST CASE SCENARIO, SEE
THINGS AS BAD AS YOU POSSIBLY CAN, JULIA IOFFE, WE CAN TAKE
IT. >> IT IS VERY HARD FOR ME BUT I
WILL DO IT ANYWAY. SO I THINK THE OTHER PART OF IT
IS THAT WITH ALL OF THIS INSTABILITY, YOU ARE ALREADY
SEEING PEOPLE FLEEING ON FOOT FROM UKRAINE ACROSS THE BORDER
INTO HUNGARY, FOR EXAMPLE OR INTO POLAND AND AS WE SAW WITH
MASSIVE REFUGEES FROM SYRIA SIX YEARS AGO, FIVE YEARS AGO, WHICH
GAVE US BREXIT, WHICH GAVE US THE RISE OF NATIONALIST FAR
RIGHT PARTIES ALL OVER EUROPE, AND THAT WAS LIKE SIX YEARS AGO,
EUROPE HAS SUPER SATURATED WITH REFUGEES AND I DON'T KNOW IF
THEY CAN HANDLE ANOTHER MASSIVE FLOW OF REFUGEES COMING ACROSS
THEIR BORDERS, WHAT THAT WOULD MEAN FOR THEM POLITICALLY, WOULD
IT PUSH THEM EVEN FURTHER TO THE RIGHT?
>> Stephen: SO WHAT IS THE BEST-CASE SCENARIO, DO YOU HAVE
ONE OF THOSE? >> I DO, BUT I DON'T THINK YOU
WILL THINK IT IS A BEST-CASE SCENARIO.
>> Stephen: DO YOUR BEST, IT IS A LATE NIGHT TV SHOW.
>> DO YOU HAVE ANYMORE OF THAT BOURBON?
>> Stephen: I HAVE A WHOLE BAR BACK THERE, I HAVE VODKA TOO.
>> PERFECT. LET'S DO SHOTS.
[APPLAUSE] >> I THINK THE BEST-CASE
SCENARIO IS, THIS SOUNDS HORRIBLE THAT THEY ACCOMPLISH
WHAT THEY WANT TO IN UKRAINE, DECAPITATE THE GOVERNMENT,
INSTALL A PUPPET REGIME, WITHDRAW WITHOUT OCCUPYING IT
AND SCARY UH UKRAINIANS ENOUGH NOT TO HAVE ANOTHER REVOLUTION
TO BRING IN A NEW DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT FOR ANOTHER FEW YEARS
AND KEEP THINGS CALM THAT WAY. >> Stephen: THAT'S YOUR
BEST-CASE SCENARIO? YOU HAVE GOT NO --
>> OH, NO, I BEST, BEST-CASE SCENARIO UKRAINE WINS AND DRIVES
THEM BACK BUT -- THAT IS THE BEST-CASE SCENARIO.
>> Stephen: WHAT ABOUT THIS. WHAT ABOUT NO HOPE, HUH?
OKAY. NO HOPE.
I WAS HOPING FOR JUST A DOLLOP, A LITTLE REY OF SUNSHINE.
>> I HAVE BEEN THINKING HARD ABOUT THIS.
I GOT SOME HOMEWORK AND I THINK I CAME UP WITH SOMETHING.
>> Stephen: OKAY. WHAT IS IT?
>> I HAVE BEEN THINKING ABOUT THIS AND WATCHING MY FRIENDS
FREAK OUT IN MOSCOW ABOUT THEIR GOVERNMENT GETTING THEM INTO A
WAR THAT THEY DON'T AGREE WITH, AND THAT THEY FEEL, THEY ARE
STILL CULPABLE FOR, WATCHING UKRAINIANS FIGHT BACK THE WAY
THEY HAVE BEEN AND THESE ARE PEOPLE WHO DON'T HAVE AS MUCH
EXPERIENCE WITH DEMOCRACY AS WE DO, RUSSIANS ESPECIALLY RUSSIANS
OF MY GENERATION HAVE BARELY EVER EXPERIENCE EXPERIENCED IT,
REALLY HAVEN'T, THE UKRAINIANS HAD IT FOR A COUPLE OF DECADES
AND LOOK HOW HARD THEY ARE FIGHTING FOR IT.
AND I THINK WE TEND TO TAKE IT FOR GRANTED AND BE, AND WE ARE
COMPLACENT ABOUT IT THAT'S WHY WE WERE SURPRISED BY JANUARY 6TH
AND SURPRISED BY TRUMP, AND IF IT TEACHES US ANYTHING I THINK
IT IS THAT DEMOCRACY IS WORK, IT IS VIGILANCE, IT IS BEING
EDUCATED, IT IS BEING SAVVY CONSUMER OF MEDIA, IT IS VOTING,
IT IS PAYING ATTENTION. [APPLAUSE]
>> >> Stephen: AND A CAUTIONARY
TALE. >> LIKE WE ALREADY HAVE IT.
WE JUST HAVE TO MAKE IT BETTER. WE ALREADY HAVE IT.
WE HAVE HAD IT FOR HUNDREDS OF YEARS.
ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS KEEP IT AND MAKE IT BETTER.
THESE GUYS ARE STARTING FROM SCRATCH.
>> Stephen: AS JEFFERSON SAID, THE PRICE OF LIBERTY IS ETERNAL
VIGILANCE. >> YEAH.
>> Stephen: AND THIS IS A CAUTIONARY TALE FOR US.
>> YES. >> Stephen: WELL, JULIA, THANK
YOU FOR ALL OF THE CHEER. YOU CAN READ HER ARTICLES AT
PUCK.NEWS, JULIA IOFFE, EVERYBODY, WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK