- Barriers are being broken in sport all the time.
But before they're overcome,
they're often thought of as impossible.
Going sub eight hours on this Kona Ironman
World Championship course comes into that bracket.
But why?
- Well we are going to be taking a detailed look
at those stats.
And what it will take, to break that barrier.
- It's now the 40th year for the
Ironman World Championships and within that time,
some huge and significant barriers have been broken
in this iconic race.
If you rewind to 1978 the winning time was 11 hours 46.
That just gives you a bit of an idea of how far the sport,
the athletes, and technology have come.
Because back then,
it was probably hard to fathom even breaking
the 11 hour barrier, but in the men's race now,
they all regularly go three hours,
or more than three hours quicker than that time back then.
And the women's current record
is actually exactly three hours quicker,
set by Daniella Ryf in 2016 when she posted a time of
eight hours, 46 minutes and 46 seconds.
- Well lets give you an idea of just how quickly
those hour barriers are broken.
Both the 11 hour and the 10 hour barrier
were broken in the same year.
In 1980 by Dave Scott with an astonishing time
of 9 hours and 24 minutes and then a few years later,
he even got close to breaking the 9 hour barrier
with a time of 9 hours and five minutes.
Then he finally did break that nine hour barrier in 1984
very convincingly as well with a time
of eight hours and 54 minutes.
And then over the next few years we saw the times drop
considerably as a result of that famous battle between
Dave Scott and Mark Allen and eventually by 1989,
the time was down to 8:09 and then after that
we saw a whole new generation of athletes coming through
Luc Van Lierde on his debut at the Iron Man champs in 1996
with a time of 8:04 and then for the next several years
the time seemed to get a little bit slower.
It wasn't until 2011 that Craig Alexander managed to break
that record setting a new course record of 8:03
and then in 2017 Patrick managed to beat it again
on near perfect conditions here in Kona
with a time of 8:01:40
and that has kind of got us thinking.
Is sub eight at Kona possible?
- Well on the women's side it was Paula Newby-Fraser
who was the first woman to go sub 10
when she posted a time of 9:49 back in 1986
and incredibly only six years later
she also was the first women to
break the sub nine barrier with a time of 8:55.
But no other woman when under nine hours until 2009
when Chrissy Wellington broke the next record.
But it's now down to a time of 8:46 as we mentioned earlier
set by Daniella Ryf two years ago.
So I guess the most significant or next significant barrier
for the women's race will be a sub eight hours 40
and I wonder if Daniella could be the person to do that.
- Now we are talking about the Kona record here
but the first sub eight hour Iron distance record
was first recorded in 1996 and that was set by Lothar Leder
in a time of seven hours and 57 minutes.
And now the current course record still comes
from the same race but a none Iron Man branded event.
It is Challenge Roth and that was set in 2016
by Jan Frodeno in an amazing time of seven hours
and 35 minutes.
On the big island of Hawaii there are so many unique factors
that make going sub eight hours almost impossible.
- Let's start with the obvious.
The terrain, this course is far from flat,
the bike course actually has over 3000 feet
or 900 metres of climbing
and the run has over 300 feet or 100 metres of climbing.
But it's not just the hills that slow the athletes down.
It's also the fact that if they pace incorrectly
it can come back to bite later on.
For example, if they ride too hard
on the hill up to Hawi on the bike
or they run too hard up this part of Palani Drive
early on in the run it can certainly come back
and affect the race later on.
The conditions can change dramatically here
with it being an island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
Most notably it's the wind.
It does tend to build as the day goes on and frustratingly
for athletes it can change direction.
So much so that some talk of having a headwind
all the way out to Hawi along the Queen K and when
they turn round they still have one on the way back.
And then add to that the crosswinds
that you can get as the wind comes down off the volcano.
It makes it really difficult to try and stay in
that aerodynamic position and the winds can get
so strong here that disc wheels aren't
actually allowed so you lose that aerodynamic benefit
that you would have on other courses.
- Tactics play a big role in any race
but they have a much bigger emphasis when we talk about
winning a race as opposed to breaking a record.
See I'm sure all athletes would love
to go sub eight hours here in Hawaii.
But to win the World Championship title,
tactics and racing wisely have a much bigger part in that
so tend to see athletes trying to make
that front pack in the swim
or try to be at least within contention
and then on the bike they want to stay within in that group
and conserve energy or they're going
to come powering through and try to split the field apart.
But as we saw last year it can come down to the run
and quite often does here in Hawaii
as we saw with Patrick Lange.
- Then there is the added pressure as it is just one chance
each year to become crowned world champion.
And you'll see some athletes
that really excel in this environment but others
that really might just start to crumble
and not have their best performance
as the pressure just gets to them.
And then finally as iconic as this race might be,
it is a mental battle on large sections of the course.
I, personally found that when I was out
on the Queen K both on the bike
and the run because suddenly you're
in this desolate landscape and there's just no support,
there's no distraction, there's no crowd.
Something which I'm personally not used to.
But a real contrast to when you're running on a Ali'i Drive
and it is lined full of people cheering you on
and that can really give athletes a boost.
- But enough about why this course is so tough.
I want to know how or if it is possible
to break the eight hour barrier
and for that I think I need a little expert help.
So Ryan Cooper has very kindly agreed to join me.
Ryan, thanks for joining me. - Of course.
- Now Ryan is a designer of Best Bike Split
and more recently The Pacing Project so certainly knows
how to break a course down and how to pace it.
Ryan the first question I want to know is.
What combinations of bike and run,
so what's the sort of fastest bike and then the slowest run
that could break the barrier and vice versa?
- Sure so I'll actually start vice versa
and I'll start and look at the bike
so kinda the slowest bike time you could expect
and still try and hope to break the eight hour barrier
would be in the mid 4:20's, so 4:25, 4:26
so you're still going to have to bike pretty fast
and then once you get off the bike
you're going to be looking at a low 2.40's run.
So I mean you're going to be low 6.10, 6.12 type of pace,
6.20 pace and that's the only way you're going to be able
to kind of get close to it-- - Yeah.
- with that kind of bike time.
On the other side of the-- - Yeah.
- You know the other side if you can bike close
to that sub 4.20, 4.18 you know it's close
to the old bike course record, last year obviously
it got shattered but yeah if you can bike in that
and then run in that mid to upper 2.40's, have a decent swim
then you can possibly do it.
- And where on the course of this fastest part
so where is the fastest part
and what time on the bike and the run?
- Sure so coming off of Hawi is the fastest,
you'll see the big strong cyclists,
you know, hitting 75 kilometres an hour plus,
45 miles an hour-- - Yeah.
- Plus you're coming down off of that
and if there is a tail wind section they'll even extend that
40 miles an hour as they're starting to come into Waikoloa.
- Yeah.
- And it just kinda all depends on the wind conditions
as they're coming off the Hawi.
- And do you know the fastest section of the run,
sort of historically?
- So-- - I mean its a bit of a--
- Funnily enough its actually, you know,
if it's coming down to a tight race,
it's actually kinda that last part you come back into town.
- Yeah.
- And you see if it's a close race you'll see the athletes
they feel the energy of the crowd, they pick it up
and they're doing sub six minute paces coming back--
- Yeah.
- into the finish line so-- - Yeah.
- Yeah that portion of the course if it's a close race tends
to elevate everybody and push 'em back into the finish.
- And where on the course can it be,
you know, a make or break time for both the bike and run?
- Sure so there's a lot of tactics on the pro side,
on the bike course and so the make or break is kind of
can you make that lead group going out.
- Yeah
- And so you see a lot of the stronger athletes trying
to keep the distance very small in the swim so
that they don't have to overextend themselves up to Hawi.
- Yeah.
- On the way back the winds change a little bit so they
can get some separation but there is you know, a little bit
of a pack dynamic going out and if you miss some of that
then it's a lot harder to try and--
- Yeah.
- bridge that gap to come back.
- And on the run is there anywhere
that you see from analysing past results
that athletes have just gone too hard
at the wrong point or actually gone too slow
and just not been able to make it back up.
- Yeah a lot of times you see the same kind of problems
that you see that age groupers and everybody else has.
- Yeah.
- You get off that bike, you're excited about getting off
the bike so you kinda push it too hard right off the front.
And so you'll see a lot of sub six minute paces
coming off the bike-- - Yeah.
- and they've got a lead.
And those sub six minute paces don't lead
to low six minute paces-- - Yeah yeah yeah
- later on in the run.
So you know the smarter runners and the smarter athletes
will keep their heart rate in check,
make sure they're in a good place up Palani
and then they'll let the rest of them play it out.
- Yeah and obviously, got the swim course here behind us
and didn't actually talk about the swim.
What's the slowest sort of possible swim
to still be able to break eight hours?
- I think if you're a really strong biker, runner, you know
that low 50 minute, 51 minute might be the extent of it,
you know, you go any longer then you know,
it's probably out of reach.
- Yeah and finally what conditions do we need
both in the water and on the Queen K, on Ali'i Drive
on Saturday to see-- - Yeah
- eight hours broken?
- So ideally you have the wind conditions from last year.
A lot calmer, the strong cross winds
didn't ever really materialise on the bike
so made for some really fast fast bike times.
Some cloud cover, keeping a little cooler
even having a little bit of rain--
- Yeah.
- is going to cool things off
and it actually can make things a little bit faster
and so ideally lower humidity
or cloud cover with a little bit of rain
to keep things cool if you hit
that scorching hot heat out on the lava fields.
There's no shade, it would make for a hard hard day.
- Yeah.
Okay well lets break it down
and have a look at the time
that Patrick Lange actually recorded
when he broke the world record.
But also what the world record is
for each separate discipline.
We're going to start with the swim.
- Yeah now that was set in 1998 by Lars Jorgensen
and that's a time of 46:41 which equates to 1:13 per 100.
- Yeah well Patrick Lange when he broke
the overall record swam a 48:45 which wasn't
that far off the leading pace set by Josh Amberger.
- Yeah but then out onto the bike and it's Cam Wurf
who set the course record just last year 2017
with a time of 4:12:54 and to post that kind of split
that means he had to ride at around 26.5 miles an hour
or 42.6 kilometres per hour.
- Wow, well Patrick Lange was a bit slower than that
but obviously the pace Cam Wurf set at the front of the race
did affect the overall record,
Patrick Lange came in with a four hour 28 bike split.
Well the run course marathon record was set here in Kona
back in 2016 at a pace that the car is now going
to be set to while Mark and I carry on presenting.
- Yeah and that record?
It was set by Patrick Lange a time of two hours 39 minutes
and 45 seconds which equates to 9.85 miles per hour
which the car is setting right now
which is also 15.9 kilometres per hour.
- Yeah well that's a 6:05 minute mile
if you're running to your watch
or a 3:47 minute kilometre which would give you a 5K
or Patrick Lange went through a 5K in 18:54
which in theory I can do quite comfortably.
- Yeah what, how about we step it up now to 10K 37:47
- Yeah I'd be-- - Still there, still there?
- I would have lost Patrick by now.
- Alright and then half marathon 1:19:45
so really pushing it, I could make that
but off the bike a 180 kilometres--
- And in these conditions.
- Woop yeah, that is some good going.
Yeah this isn't easy.
Well at first glace all fingers point to Patrick Lange.
He is after all the defending world champion
and current record holder finishing
just one minute and 40 seconds outside of
that eight hour mark but some do say
that the conditions possibly played into his hands
and his skillset a little bit more last year
with slightly less winds on the bike allowing him
to stay in touch coming off the bike onto that run
and then allowing him to unleash
that blistering marathon run pace.
- Well I'm going to bring Ryan back in again because
he's obviously analysed the athletes
and their performances in the past.
And I want to know Ryan,
if you think Lionel could be the man
to actually break eight hours, Lionel Sanders.
- Well I know, it may be tough,
if he's going to do it this year
it's probably his best chance.
I know he's leaner than he's ever been,
he still has power on the bike.
This year there is a couple of new dynamics,
you have Starkey on the bike,
Wurf obviously is a strong cyclist.
The strongest, you know he broke the record last year.
So you have this very uber bike, Kienle,
you have all of 'em that if they can work together
and actually create more separation
from the stronger runners then you know
they have a better chance of holding him off.
The stronger cyclists actually hope
that the weather is worse.
- Yeah.
- And so they'd rather have windier conditions to break
that pack up so it's not conducive to breaking eight hours
but it may be conducive --
- To winning - to winning the race.
- Yeah.
- So I do give him a good shot.
I give Kienle a really good shot,
he's had really good races-- - Yeah.
- all year--
- I mean he's the athlete whose gone under that eight hours,
the most time out of all the pros, I think.
I think it's a total of five that he's broken the eight hour
obviously on easier courses than here.
And he's the winner from 2014 so he knows how to do it.
Could he be the one?
- I think it's funny because he's kind of a underdog
- Yeah
- And you're like how can Sebastian Kienle be an underdog?
But I mean he's a really great runner,
he can stay with those guys on the bike
so if Wurf pushes the pace on the bike, with Starkey
and they come out of the water somewhat close to each other
then he probably has you know as good
if not better run--
- Yeah. - than the rest of them.
So I think yeah he definitely has a shot,
definitely for the podium if not the win.
- Great insight, thanks so much Ryan.
- On paper and according to the experts it is possible to go
sub eight hours on this Iron Man World Championship course.
But that will depend on all the factors aligning on the day
and the question remains will it this year 2018 that we see
that record get smashed.
Well hopefully you've enjoyed this
if you have hit the thump up like button, hit the globe
to subscribe to make sure you get all of our videos at GTN
and if you wanna see more stats on Kona
there's a video of Kona in numbers just here
and if you want to know how to pace an Iron Man race
Mark's made a video on that just here.