GOOD MORNING.
I’M ADAM SEXTON.
AS WE BID FAREWELL TO 2019, WE ARE GATHERING AN IMPRESSIVE ARRAY OF REPORTING TALENT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY KNOWLEDGE IN OUR STUDIOS THIS MORNING.
WE’LL GET STARTED WITH A ROUNDTABLE INVOLVING SOME OF THE MOST TALENTED UP-AND-COMING JOURNALISTS WE HAVE IN OUR STATE.
WE HAVE HUNTER WOODALL OF "THE ASSOCIATED PRESS," BEATRICE-ELIZABETH PETERSON OF ABC NEWS, AND JAKE LAHUT OF "THE KEENE SENTINEL." LET’S START WITH YOU, JAKE, AND
A STORY IN YOUR PART OF THE STATE, THE MONADNOCK REGION, BERNIE’S BACKYARD, THEY CALL IT.
THIS IS WHERE HE RAN UP THE SCORE IN 2016 AND CREATED THE MASSIVE MARGIN OF VICTORY.
IS HE ABLE TO ROUND UP THE SAME PEOPLE? IS THIS THE SAME BERNIE AND THE SAME GROUP OF VOTERS?
JAKE: I WOULD SAY SANDERS HAS A MATH PROBLEM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT A STORY PROBLEM IN OUR AREA.
IN 2016 THE COUNTY WAS THE HIGHEST PERFORMING, HE WON 2 OUT OF FOUR VOTERS.
THE MAGNA KNOCK REGION AROUND KEENE AND THAT HANOVER LEBANON AREA WHERE THE ONLY PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE YOU HAVE COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES, YOU HAVE OBVIOUSLY A HIGHLY EDUCATED
ELECTORATE ALREADY COVER THE HOSPITALS AND SOCIAL SERVICES FOR A LARGE DISTANCE RADIUS.
IT IS MORE EDUCATED AND A DISTINCT ELECTORATE FROM WHAT YOU WOULD FIND IN THE HILLSBOROUGH AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES.
IN A FIELD THIS LARGE THERE ARE TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS.
ONE THEY ARE HOPING FOR IS THAT HE PERTAINS AS MANY OF THE VOTERS AS POSSIBLE AND THAT THE VOTE WILL BE SPLIT SO MANY WAYS IN THE HIGHLY POPULATED COUNTIES THAT IN THE BERNIE’S BACKYARD
CORRIDOR HE WILL BE ABLE TO SECURE A SOLID MARGIN.
SANDERS USUALLY WINS WITH NOT THAT FAR OVER THE VOTE.
ANOTHER STORY IS YOU LOOK AT ANDREW YANG AND TULSI GABBARD AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MARIANNE WILLIAMSON, WHO ALL HAVE A STRONG APPEAL TO INDEPENDENTS WHO VOTE ON PRIMARY DAY.
MANY OF THOSE WE TALKED TO AT EVENTS ARE FORMER SANDERS SUPPORTERS.
2016 BERNIE ONLY BEAT HILLARY AMONG REGISTERED DEMOCRATS WAS 1%, BUT AMONG INDEPENDENTS IS WHERE IT GOT OUT OF HAND.
SIX POINTS THEY COULD SHAVE OFF OF BERNIE’S MARGIN.
IF YOU GO TO A GABBARD OR YANG EVENT AND SEE THE MOMENTUM THEY HAVE, THAT NUMBER COULD BE MUCH HIGHER.
THE OTHER PROBLEM BERNIE HAS IS THE WARREN-BUTTIGIEG BATTLE OVER WHO IS MORE LIKELY TO BE REGISTERED DEMOCRATS, AND THAT IS A PROBLEM.
BUT CAMPAIGNS ARE NOT A MATH EQUATION.
THEY ARE STORIES.
THE POST HEART ATTACK BUMP WILL PROPEL HIM INTO THE TOP SPOT.
ADAM: WE HAVE A TOLL SEE GABBARD EXPERT -- A TOLL SEE GABBARD -- TULSI GABBARD EXPERT HERE.
BEATRICE, YOU SPEND QUITE A BIT OF TIME ON THE TRAIL COVERING TULSI GABBARD, AND SHE CAUGHT A LOT OF FLAK FOR VOTING PRESENT ON IMPEACHMENT.
THERE WAS A LOT OF ESTABLISHMENT DEMOCRATIC ANGER AIMED IN HER DIRECTION, BUT WHAT ABOUT THE PEOPLE COMING TO HER EVENTS.
BEATRICE: I HAVEN’T HEARD IT FROM A LOT OF HER SUPPORTERS.
A FEW OF THEM WERE UPSET BY THE VOTE BUT SAY IT IS ON BRAND WITH REPRESENTATIVE GABBARD.
THEY SAID IT WAS SOMETHING THEY EXPECTED HER TO DO AND WEREN’T SURPRISED.
THEY PRESENT VOTE FROM A NON-VOTE, MOST PEOPLE DON’T KNOW, BUT THEY WEREN’T SURPRISED BY IT.
THEY WERE NOT EXPECTING HER TO CALL OUT THE BIPARTISAN GRIDLOCK.
THAT IS WHAT SHE DID SAYING THAT IT WAS NOT A POLITICAL GAME.
ADAM: IT SEEMS LIKE ANYTIME PEOPLE EXPECT A ZIG SHE WILL ALWAYS ZAG.
HUNTER, ONE THING WE ARE SEEING THAT JAKE MENTIONED IS THE ELIZABETH WARREN-PETE BUTTIGIEG BATTLE.
WHAT IS SHE DOING, THIS PERSON FOR A LONG TIME LOOKING LIKE AN EMERGING FRONT RUNNER AND NOW IT HAS FADED BACK INTO THE RACE?
HUNTER: I MOVED OUT HERE IN FEBRUARY.
SHE STARTED OUT WITH A DISCIPLINED MESSAGE.
SHE GAVE THE STUMP SPEECH AND TOOK THE QUESTIONS YOU KNEW YOU WERE GETTING AT EVENTS.
SHE CHANGED THAT UP.
IT WAS A 10 MINUTE SPEECH AND LARGELY OPEN AIR FOR QUESTIONS, ASK AS MANY AS YOU LIKE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT.
ONE VOTER ASKED, HOW ARE YOU GOING TO GO AFTER?
SHE SAID WALL STREET.
-- WALL STREET PETE.
SHE HAD ALREADY BEEN CRITICIZING THE MAYOR.
THERE ARE SOME DAYS WHEN SHE CLEARLY WANTS TO GO AFTER HIM AND SHE SKIPPED THE OPPORTUNITY WHEN SHE HAD IT IN FRONT OF A LARGE CROWD TO MAKE THE DIFFERENCES APPARENT.
ADAM: WITH SO FEW VOTES THAT WILL DECIDE THE CONTEST THE MARGIN WILL BE HUGE.
LET’S TALK ABOUT UNDECIDED VOTERS.
THE LATE BREAKING LAST MINUTE DECIDED FOLKS.
THIS TIME IT SEEMS THAT FOLKS WHO WANT TO MAKE UP THEIR MINDS EARLY ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DOING IT.
WHAT ARE YOU HEARING?
JAKE: IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT IS LARGELY COMING DOWN TO A THREE-WAY RACE BETWEEN GOOD AND JED WARREN, AND SANDERS WILL STOP BY THEN HAS KEY ENDORSEMENTS LIKE THE OUTGOING
MAYOR OF KEENE, BUT IN TERMS OF EVENTS THAT ARE FULL, IT IS THOSE THREE.
WHEN IT COMES TO WHERE EVERYONE ELSE IS LOOKING, WE HEAR THE SAME THINGS, WHO WILL BE TRUMP, ELECTABILITY?
THOSE ARE NOT QUANTIFIABLE.
I THINK WHEN IT COMES TO THE DIFFICULTY, ESPECIALLY CAMPAIGNS HAVE ATTACKING JOE BIDEN OR BERNIE SANDERS, IS THAT UNDECIDED VOTERS HAVE SOME DEGREE OF WHAT I WOULD DESCRIBE
AS A PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP WITH THEM.
IT IS HARD TO LEVY AN ATTACK ON THOSE CANDIDATES WITHOUT HARMING THE VOTERS THEMSELVES.
I THINK THAT TULSI GABBARD IS GOING TO KEEP BUILDING A HOTBED OF SUPPORT IN OUR AREA.
ANDREW YANG IS MAKING STRIDES.
EVERY TIME THAT YOU COVER THOSE EVENTS PEOPLE SAY I CAME HERE UNDECIDED AND I’M STARTING TO LEAN THAT WAY.
THE X FACTOR FOR ME IS JOE BIDEN.
I WONDER HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE NOT THOSE WHO WOULD REGULARLY THOUGH TWO EVENTS BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DECIDE WE SHOULD PLAY IT SAFE AND GO WITH JOE.
ADAM: WHAT ARE THEY TELLING YOU?
BEATRICE: I HEAR PEOPLE TALK ABOUT TIERS.
I HAVE A FIRST-TIER, SECOND-TIER, THIRD TIER CANDIDATE.
THEY ARE LOOKING TO SEE WHO THEY LIKE OUT OF A CROWDED FIELD OF CONTENDERS.
I SPOKE TO, HARRIS SUPPORTERS AT BUTTIGIEG EVENTS.
SAYING I WAS LOOKING FOR HER BUT SHE PULLED OUT OF THE STATES AND NOW I’M LOOKING FOR A NEW CANDIDATE.
I WAS AT A SANDERS EVENT WITH JAKE YESTERDAY AND I SAW SOMEONE WITH A TOLL SEE GABBARD -- TUSLI GABBARD STICKER.
SHE SAID I WANT TO SEE HER IN THE WHITE HOUSE BUT I ALSO WANT TO SEE BERNIE SANDERS.
I WANT A DUAL TICKET.
SHE IS A VERMONT BOATER.
SHE SAYS I’M GOING TO VOTE FOR GABBARD.
IT WILL NOT HURT BERNIE BUT IT WILL SHOW THAT SHE HAS SUPPORT.
I THINK WITH THE CROWDED FIELD THEY AREN’T SURE WHAT THE SOMETHING IS.
ADAM: MAKING IT THAT MUCH HARDER TO FIND OUT WHO IS WINNING.
HUNTER: THE BIDEN FOLKS ARE BETTING THAT THEY WILL HAVE A LARGE TURNUP FROM FOLKS WHO DON’T USUALLY GO TO EVENTS.
THAT IS A DECENT BED.
THOSE FOLKS MAY NOT BE AS PASSIONATE AS VOTERS WHO ARE AT EVENTS.
WHAT I HAVE BEEN PAYING ATTENTION TO, THERE IS AN EVENT WITH WARREN OVER THE CENTER AND THERE WERE A LOT OF VOTERS WHO WERE BERNIE AND 2016 SAYING I WILL VOTE FOR SENATOR WARREN OR
THEY ARE TORN BETWEEN THE TWO.
SINCE SENATOR SANDERS’ HEART ATTACK SUDDENLY VOTERS BETWEEN THE TWO ARE LEANING TOWARDS SENATOR SANDERS AGAIN.
THE VOTERS UNDECIDED ARE THE ONES THAT I’M PAYING ATTENTION TO BECAUSE THEY COULD DECIDE THIS.
YOU HAVE THE TWO BACKYARD CANDIDATES AND THAT GROUP CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
JAKE: I FOLLOWED A WARREN CANVASSER FOR A WEEKEND.
EVERY TIME THEY ASKED SOMEONE AND THEY WERE WILLING TO ANSWER WHO DID THEY SUPPORT IN 2016 IT WAS BERNIE SANDERS.
THE OTHER THING I TOOK FROM THAT REPORTING IS THE CANVASSER RECALLED INSTANCES WHEN SHE WOULD TURN THE CORNER AND SEE THE SANDERS TEAM COVERING THE SAME SPACE, AND THEY WOULD OFTEN
HAVE AN AGREEMENT WHERE THEY WILL KNOCK ON THE DOOR THE SAME TIME, MAKE THEIR PITCHES, AND LEAVE, BUT THEY WILL BE FOLLOWING UP WITH THE EXACT SAME PEOPLE.
ADAM: I WANT TO ASK BEATRICE, YOU HAVE A UNIQUE PERSPECTIVE BEING A CAMPAIGN EMBED WITH TU LSI GABBARD.
WHAT IS IT LIKE TRYING TO FIND A SENSE OF PERSPECTIVE?
BEATRICE: I TRY TO GO OUT OF THE BUBBLE.
IT IS EASY TO BE WITH THE CANDIDATE AND CANDIDATE SUPPORTERS.
I GO TO COFFEE SHOPS AND SMALL BUSINESSES AND TALK PEOPLE ON THE GO.
WHAT ARE THE BIG ISSUES?
WHAT I KEEP HEARING ABOUT HIS HEALTH CARE.
PEOPLE ARE VERY INVESTED IN HEALTH CARE AND THE ECONOMY.
THINGS THAT HAVE BEEN MORE WASHINGTON STORYLINES ARE NOT COMING UP ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL AS MUCH.
IMPEACHMENT, I AM NOT HEARING.
I’M NOT HEARING THE WASHINGTON STORIES AND NATIONAL STORIES.
IT IS ABOUT MEAT AND POTATOES OUTSIDE OF IT ALL.
I WAS IN SOUTH CAROLINA BEFORE REPRESENTATIVE GABBARD WAS VOTING ON IMPEACHMENT IN A RURAL AREA.
I SAID DOES Y HER IMPEACHMENT VOTE AFFECT HOW YOU SUPPORT HER?
THEY SAID HOW SHE VOTES ON IMPEACHMENT, MOSTLY AN AFRICAN-AMERICAN CROWD, DOESN’T MATTER.
I LIKE THE MESSAGE ABOUT WAR.
THAT IS SOMETHING THAT RESONATES WITH ME.
ADAM: THE BIGGEST SURPRISE OF 2019?
HUNTER: IT IS TWOFOLD.
I COVERED BETO’S FIRST TRIP OUT HERE.
IT WAS A MASSIVE EVENT.
THEN TO SEE HE BACK IN SEPTEMBER FOR THE SAME PLACE AND IT WAS MUCH SMALLER.
ANDREW YANG HAS BUILT QUITE AN OPERATION.
HE IS OPENING OFFICES AND GOING VIRAL.
THERE WAS A MEME OF HIM.
UNIQUE HE HAS MADE A PLACE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
BEATRICE: HOW BIG THE FIELD WAS.
YOU STILL HAVE CONTENDERS GETTING IN THE RACE LATER THAN MOST OF THE FIELD.
YOU HAVE BLOOMBERG.
IT IS VERY UNUSUAL.
I WAS NOT EXPECTING AS MANY PEOPLE.
JAKE: AS A CANDIDATE, PETE BUTTIGIEG.
OVERALL, STASIS.
WE COME BACK A YEAR LATER AND BERNIE SANDERS AND JOE BIDEN’S FULL AVERAGES HAVE REMAINED THE SAME.
UNLIKE THE 2016 PRIMARY WHEN YOU HAD HONEY MOON PHASES.
THE ONLY ONE TO KEEP ON GOING IS PETE.
ADAM: THESE ARE THE REPORTERS TO WATCH FOR THE FUTURE