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The war in Ukraine has turned the global political agenda upside
down. Suddenly the eyes of the whole world have shifted back to Europe.
Russia and Ukraine and oil and gas seem to be the hot topics.
However, have you ever heard the expression "don't let the urgent things prevent you from
taking care of the important things"? Well, that's exactly what the United States and particularly
Joe Biden's Administration is doing. VisualPolitik fans, the White House
is very clear that in the long term, Asia remains the number one priority.
So far from looking the other way,
what they want in Washington is precisely to step on the accelerator.
They hope to take advantage of the unease, the fear generated by the Russian invasion and the
fact that now, suddenly, the United States has once again become the ally of choice,
the friend everyone wants to have. And so, at the end of May 2022,
in the midst of the war in Ukraine and while the Pentagon continued to send more and more weapons
to the European front, US President Joe Biden made an important visit to South Korea and Japan,
two close allies of the United States that have been frantic lately to strengthen their
ties with the US power, at all levels. By the way, this visit was celebrated
with fireworks and a joint air show by the usual annoying neighbors.
(Russian and Chinese jets patrol East Asia skies
as Biden visits – Nikkei Asia) (Hours After Biden Leaves Asia,
North Korea Launches a Suspected ICBM and Two Other Missiles – Time)
The fact is that, as we have already mentioned here and there, the United States has been
promoting a significant network of alliances throughout the Asia-Pacific region for years.
And if in recent years North American policy has been practically limited to closer military ties,
now the Biden Administration wants to do the same in the political and economic fields.
As Vice President, Biden was part of the Administration that led the TPP,
the trans-Pacific trade agreement that was later abandoned by Donald Trump in one of the great
mistakes of US foreign policy, the White House is now studying how to resume that line of work.
All with a threefold goal. Three objectives that the United States
considers indispensable in order to remain the number one power in Asia Pacific.
The first of these, which we have already discussed at length in past videos,
involves curbing the expansion of Chinese influence and demonstrating that the United
States is still the essential player. Even if this means taking a much tougher, more active
and belligerent line on Taiwan. (Biden vows to defend Taiwan
in apparent US policy shift – BBC) And here is one thing to keep in mind:
As much as the White House and the Secretary of State tend to qualify the president's words
after the fact to make it clear the United States has not changed its position on its
policy of strategic ambiguity – which basically involves not making it clear when and how Taiwan
would be defended – It doesn't matter. Biden's repeated assertion that the US
would intervene actively and militarily to defend Taiwan is no accident, but a statement of intent.
The second major objective is to try to stimulate the three-way relationship with two of its closest
allies: South Korea and Japan. In other words, Washington wants these two countries to improve
their relations and put their old diplomatic conflicts behind them once and for all in order
to build a strong democratic front in the region. We are talking about two of the wealthiest and
most technologically advanced countries in the world. Two countries that combined have
a GDP of $7 trillion dollars and a military budget that could reach $150 billion dollars per year.
In other words, we would be talking about one of the strongest duos in the world.
Finally, Washington's third major objective is to promote a network
of alliances to achieve greater military, political and economic
integration, especially economic, with the countries of the region.
Well, during his latest trip, Biden gave us many clues about what Uncle Sam's new
foreign policy will look like. These, VisualPolitik viewers,
are the plans that the Biden Administration has for keeping China no more than a minor player.
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(A PREMIERE SUMMIT)
It may be surprising, but if there is one thing the evidence tells us, it is
that international relations are very, very much influenced by the personal relationship between
the various political leaders. ("In international relations,
all politics is personal. [Because it's all ultimately based on trust. And trust
only flows from personal, – not friendly – candid relationships with your counterpart,
so you don't have to wonder about intentions." – Vice-president Joe Biden, in South Korea in 2013)
And guess what? The US leader's visit to South Korea was such a success that Biden
and the new South Korean president seem to have hit it off very well.
But, obviously this is not a soap opera so here the bromance is a bit inconsequential
to us. This is Visualpolitik and here we are mainly concerned with the facts.
Well, on the political front, in October 2021, the United States announced the creation of a new
Asia-Pacific cooperation framework: the so-called Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, the new IPEF.
And yes, South Korea has been invited to be one of its founding members.
And of course Yoon has accepted. Now, what is this framework and why
on earth would Washington want to create a new international forum, if the United States could
simply rejoin the CPTPP, which is now led mainly by Japan and has become the trending club?
Well, unlike the CPTPP, the IPEF is not a free trade agreement that seeks
to eliminate tariffs and trade barriers. For the time being,
its main intention is to promote the economic integration of the 14 founding countries.
That is, for example, to promote close regulation,
exchange experiences and promote cooperation agreements in areas such as technology,
the digital economy, clean energy and the fight against corruption.
And above all, more than anything else, what this forum seeks is to strengthen
supply chains between member countries so that they do not have to depend so much on China.
Let's not kid ourselves, we are talking about a forum whose mission does not yet seem very clear,
but it seems that Washington aspires for this forum to become one of the central
axes of US foreign policy and to function as a counterweight to any integration movement
led by China, as is the case of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
There is even speculation that in the medium-term the US government's idea is that this framework
will eventually give rise to a new, much broader free trade and economic cooperation agreement.
An agreement that would allow, for instance, the promotion of initiatives on such strategic
issues as microchips, the lack of which is greatly affecting the automotive,
technological and military industries around the world, including, of course, the US industry.
In fact, just after Biden's visit to South Korea and after South Korea agreed to join IPEF, two
important announcements were made. Take a look. (S.Korea's SK announces $195 bln investment for
chips, batteries, bio through 2026 – Reuters) (Samsung to invest $355 billion to cement lead in
chip, bio sectors – The Korea Times) To give you an idea, these two investments
combined represent the equivalent of the entire GDP of countries such as
Norway or Israel. In other words, overnight this industry has become South Korea's
national priority. Coincidence? Hardly. But, let's not stop there.
In addition to IPEF, Biden and Yoon also reached important military agreements,
such as increasing the US deterrent forces deployed in the area to deal with North Korean
provocations as well as the frequency and quantity with which strategic weapons would
be deployed if Pyongyang steps out of line. Joint military exercises will also be resumed
as regularly as they were conducted before former President Moon canceled
many maneuvers to avoid angering Kim Jong-un. And that's not all. There is also speculation
that South Korea could unilaterally put an end to the military restrictions that Xi Jinping
and Moon Jae-in agreed on in order to stop the retaliation with which Beijing punished
South Korea after the United States deployed the THAAD missile shield in South Korea.
We are talking about what is known as the "three no’s agreement".
Under this agreement, South Korea pledged first that there would be no more anti-missile systems
in the country, secondly, that Seoul would not join any US-led regional anti-missile system,
and thirdly, that it would not be part of any military alliance involving South Korea,
Japan and the United States at the same time.
All in exchange for China putting an end to the economic reprisals that, for example,
caused Hyundai's sales in China to plummet by 64%, forced the Lotte Group to liquidate all
its operations in China and halted the transit of Chinese tourists to Seoul.
Well, be that as it may, this agreement now seems to be kaput. However, it remains to be
seen how Seoul will manage the aftermath. In any case, the relationship with Seoul is
far from the only card Biden hopes to play. He is doing exactly the same with Japan.
The Land of the Rising Sun has not only committed to expanding its military budget,
strengthening its political role in the region and even trying to improve its
relationship with Seoul. It is also and above all increasing its engagement with the United
States and the latter's closest allies. For example, Japan has signed significant
military agreements with Australia and the United Kingdom. In this way,
the United States is creating a coalition capable of restraining China on its own.
Of course, in this area, bilateral relations are not the only ace Washington has up its sleeve.
(ROAD TO DETERRENCE)
In addition to boosting bilateral relations, the Biden Administration's other major priority is to
consolidate half-built military alliances. I'm talking particularly about the Quad.
We are not going to give you many details about it because we specifically dedicated a video to
it here on Visualpolitik, but it is true that following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the
United States now wants to step on the accelerator to finish fleshing out an alliance formed by the
United States, Japan, India and Australia. An alliance that met in Tokyo just after
Biden's trip to South Korea and has brought with it some new developments.
For example, Quad leaders have agreed to launch a major maritime initiative,
the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness, or IPMDA.
(Quad leaders roll out major initiative to improve monitoring maritime activities across
Indo-Pacific – The Economic Times) And what exactly is this for?
The idea is that this new partnership will allow increased real-time monitoring of
the Indo-Pacific seas by member countries. And we are not only talking about a military
function, this initiative will also make it possible to control the navigation of the
so-called "dark ships", vessels that sail with their detection systems disconnected
and that are often linked to illegal fishing, smuggling or trade with countries sanctioned
by the international community, as is the case with North Korea, for example.
And it goes even further. The four nations of the Quad
have also agreed to the creation of the Quad Cybersecurity Partnership.
(Quad calls for collective approach to enhance cybersecurity
The quad countries [...] called for a collective approach to enhance cybersecurity and said they
will coordinate capacity building programs in the Indo-Pacific region under the Quad
Cybersecurity Partnership. – The Week) Of course, it's not all good news.
India has refused to strongly condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine because
it fears Vladimir Putin's country will cancel deliveries of military equipment.
Meanwhile – And this is something we will talk about in a future video – in Australia,
the Labour Party has come to power and there is a fear that the new government in Canberra
wants to cool its growing hostility to China in order to redirect trade relations and get
Beijing to cancel the tariffs with which it has hoped to punish the Australian economy.
Be that as it may, if one thing is clear, it is that in recent years
there has been a 180-degree turnaround. The US position in the Asia-Pacific is becoming
the strongest it has been in a very long time.
With South Korea, Japan, Australia and the alliances that are being forged,
such as the Quad and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, the Biden Administration hopes to
consolidate the United States' position as a major power in the Asia-Pacific.
While until relatively recently, everything pointed to China taking the upper hand, the shift
in US political strategy has changed everything. Both in the European and Pacific theater.
Of course the game is not yet over, and the question is:
Will Biden's plans come to fruition, will the US strategy succeed, and will
Washington succeed in weakening the power and influence of Russia and China at the same time?
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All the best and see you next time.