There are thousand ways to overthrow a dictator: from violent revolutions to peaceful transitions…
but Venezuela is trying something unique.
Its parliament has just named an alternative president to Nicolas Maduro.
His name is Juan GUAIDO (((gw-eye-doe)))) and he’s the man who will lead the country
into democracy… if he can actually pull it off.
Because, let’s be clear here…
Venezuela is now under a dictatorship: Nicolas Maduro’s dictatorship.
And yes, yes, I know what you might be thinking…
Come on, Simon!
How can this be a dictatorship if they hold elections?
Of course they do!
People can vote in Bangladesh, Egypt, and Azerbaijan too.
Even in North Korea they have legislative elections every 5 years.
And people can even choose among different political parties, too.
No, I’m not being sarcastic: Google it!
But look, if you wanna have democracy, elections must be free and fair and, of course, you
need freedom of speech.
And freedom of speech in Venezuela is as scarce as toilet paper.
Basically, all the websites that are critical of the government are banned, and that includes
those using a link shortener like BIT.LY.
Most of the TVs are nationalized or owned by friends of the government and oppositional
newspapers cannot be printed because the paper industry is a monopoly held by the government.
And yes, yes, some of you might still say…
But Maduro is very popular among his people, isn’t he?
Of course he is!
In fact, every dictator in history was beloved by his people.
See, the 101st lesson in the dictator’s playbook is: never stop spending on propaganda.
And what does lesson 102 say?
‘Send all of your enemies to prison!’.
Once you have the courts in your pocket, it’s easy to accuse anybody of all kinds of crimes.
In arab dictatorships, they usually claim their opponents are terrorists.
In Maduro’s Venezuela, they just label them conspirators.
But, OK, now you might say “Sure, Simon, we get it, Maduro is a dictator but… proclaiming
yourself as the legitimate president without winning an election?
Isn’t that a coup d’etat?
At least, that’s what many people are saying nowadays…
Well… in fact, the opposite is true.
Listen, a coup d’etat is defined as the taking of a government through the use of
force by a group that already has some kind of power inside the system, usually, the military.
But Juan GUAIDO is using an article in the Venezuelan Constitution.
Article 233 allows the president of the National Assembly, that is, JUAN GUAIDO, to occupy,
temporarily, the presidency of the Republic if there is an absence of power.
Since Maduro came to power by violating the Constitution, there is no president now…
from a legal point of view.
So now, the brand new Venezuelan executive has 30 days to call for new elections.
So yes, Maduro’s opposition is overthrowing a dictator by following the Constitution to
the letter.
And this is why so many governments, including Trump’s America and Trudeau’s Canada,
have recognized Mr. Guaido as the legitimate president of Venezuela.
But there is still a big question we have to ask here.
Is this good or bad news for Venezuela?
Is it that easy to end a dictatorship?
You just go, claim to be the president, wait for America to recognize you and… that’s
it?
Well… my dear viewers, the answer is no.
If there’s a lesson we can learn from history on this subject, it’s that even the countries
with the worst dictatorships can get even worse.
For example, Saddam’s Iraq or Gaddadi’s Lybia.
Is Venezuela heading toward the same fate?
Are there reasons to be more optimistic about Venezuela’s situation?
Today we are NOT going to answer these questions, because it’s impossible to do that.
But we are going to give you the keys to understand them.
But before we do, as always… let’s take a look back at the history.
THE END OF DEMOCRACY
Remember this date: May 1st, 2017.
In this moment, Venezuela’s parliament was mostly made up of members of Maduro’s opposition
party.
Of course, we aren’t just talking about a party that opposed Maduro.
In fact, there are many of those and they range from left wing to right wing.
But nobody cares about them.
Since 2016, the Parliament had been declared disrespectful.
This means, they no longer had legal power.
Why not?
Well… because, according to the government, there were 3 MPs that won the election in
an unfair manner.
What a surprise!
3 MPs was the exact number that they needed to avoid a 2 thirds majority in the congress.
With a 2 thirds majority, the executive power would be in dire straits.
And this is why Nicolas Maduro finally acted to, cripple the opposition.
I’m summoning the constituent power to achieve the peace this Republic needs!
We need to destroy this fascist coup d’etat!
We need the people, with their sovereignty, to impose peace!
This was the exact moment where Maduro declared the parliament illegal.
The only opposition he still had was, politically, killed.
And what happened next?
Well, Basically, Maduro made up a brand new parliament.
The so called CONSTITUENCY ASSEMBLY.
A parliament with 545 MPs where, surprise, surprise, 503 were members of the Government’s
party!
Strange as this sounds, this movement could still be considered legal according to Venezuela’s
constitution.
Article 348 says the president can create a council to make a brand new constitution.
The problem?
Those MPs from the same political party were making all kinds of laws, including tax laws.
It was, in fact, a parallel parliament.
In the meantime, the old parliament, with different political parties, kept holding
sessions but with no real power.
The army and the police was on Maduro’s side.
This is when Venezuela went from being a kind of sketchy democracy under financial collapse
to… a classic dictatorship.
But wait a minute because here’s the important part.
This fake parliament called for elections.
As you can imagine, with nearly all of the members belonging to the president’s political
party, those elections were as predictable as the ending of ‘The passion of the Christ’.
Yes, you guessed it!
Maduro won by a landslide.
But, of course, no serious country recognized the result of the elections.
Already in 2018, Mike Pence, the American Vice President, said this about Maduro.
The United States has called this election what it really was: a sham (…) Maduro must
hold free and fair elections, and release all political prisoners immediately and unconditionally.
--Mike Pence, Vice President USA
The same happened in most South American and European countries.
Nobody recognized the results of this election.
The problem?
There was no alternative to Maduro’s rule.
And this is how we got to January 2019, when Maduro took office.
Of course, he didn’t do it before the National Assembly because he doesn’t like them.
Instead, he took office in front of the Supreme Court of Justice.
According to the constitution, this means he made his oath illegally, and therefore,
he is an illegal president.
And this was when the opposition, with the law in their hands, could start putting their
plans into play.
Having no legitimate president, the president of the National Assembly, Juan GUAIDO, made
another oath.
And this is when all those countries who didn’t recognize the outcome of the elections started
recognizing Guaido as the legitimate president of Venezuela.
But OK, maybe you’re now thinking… hmm… just 5 minutes after Guaido made the oath,
Trump recognized him…
Is this pure chance, or was there a plan already in place?
Well, let’s take a look.
WHO CARES ABOUT VENEZUELA?
If you’ve been following VisualPolitik for a long time, you already know that Venezuela
is the country with the biggest oil reserves on the planet: bigger than Saudi Arabia’s,
Russia’s, or America’s.
The problem?
They can hardly make a profit off of them.
You see, it’s one thing to have lots of dinosaur juice.
And it’s another entirely to make money off of that dinosaur juice.
Just have a look at this chart.
Here you can see the production cost of an oil barrel by country.
Saudi Arabia has the cheapest cost per barrel.
This is why, regarding the market price, they always make a profit.
Meanwhile, Venezuela is on the other side.
They have one of the most expensive oil costs.
And if this isn’t enough, PDVSA, the state oil company, is in chaos.
In other words, they can’t make money by selling their oil at the market price.
This is why, despite being the country with the biggest oil reserves on the planet, Venezuela
produces less oil than Angola or Nigeria.
In fact, they represent just 7% of the oil imports in America.
This means their weight in the International economy is pretty small.
Especially at a time when America is surpassing Saudi Arabia in oil production.
Yes, America is no longer that crazy about oil.
On the other hand, Trump has already restricted investments in Venezuela.
This means, banks aren’t really exposed to anything that happens in this country.
They just don’t care about Venezuela.
Of course, the White House still doesn’t like Maduro.
That’s why they’ve named ELLION ABRAMS as the special envoy to Venezuela.
Abrams was the guy behind the IRAN/CONTRA scandal, as well as Venezuela’s coup against
Chavez in 2002.
But, let’s be honest… Trump has many other things to think about besides Venezuela.
In Spain and, generally, the Spanish speaking world, Venezuela is on the front page of all
the newspapers.
Everybody talks about it in the bars and cafes of Madrid.
There is an actual debate between Maduro’s supporters and Maduro’s opposers.
But in America… well, you might know that something has happened in Venezuela, but you
probably aren’t too passionate about it.
Nonetheless, guess which country has a bigger stake in Venezuela!
Here’s a hint.
It starts with C and ends with…!!!
China now taking 28% of Venezuela’s oil production to repay debt
As we said in previous videos, China needs natural resources.
So they made big loans to Venezuela.
So far, Caracas owes Beijing more than 50 billion dollars.
That’s the cost of 3 Olympic games.
But, since Venezuela no longer has the money to pay back their debts, they have to pay
with oil.
Still wondering why China still supports Maduro?
Well, he’s the only one who can guarantee the oil shipments.
Who knows what could happen with a different government?
And let’s not forget the drug trafficking.
According to several DEA reports, between 15 and 20% of all cocaine traffic travels
through Venezuelan soil.
Important figures such as DIOSDADO CABELLO are directly involved in NARCO activities.
In fact, it’s fair to say that Venezuela is a narco state.
A place where traffickers can establish their logistical hubs with the help of government
officials.
OK, all of this sounds good but… the big question is…
Can there really be a peaceful democratic transition in Venezuela?
We’ll explore that now.
WHAT CAN BE DONE ABOUT THIS?
As we said before, Venezuelan opposition is completely fragmented.
They have lots of political parties: conservatives, liberals, socialists...
But unlike other countries like Poland or the Czech Republic, where they had strong
leaders that opposed the dictators, there is no clear opposition to Maduro.
But now things have changed.
With international support, Juan Guaido can really galvanize the democratic opposition.
Of course, he’s just the interim president.
This means, in 30 days, he will have to call for elections.
But… this is where the good news ends.
You see… laws are just empty words if there’s nobody to enforce them.
This is why the military and police are so important.
In other words, Guaido might have all the legitimacy he could ever want but…
How can he call for elections if the army doesn’t want that to happen?
This explains why both Guaido and Maduro have been trying to seduce the army.
Nicolas Maduro demanded loyalty to the army: we must enforce the power of the Venezuelan
nation with the military
So far, the army is on Maduro’s side.
At least, at the time we record this video.
LET’S MAKE A PARENTHESIS HERE: by the time we are editing this video, this is February,
2nd, a General from the Venezuelan Army has uploaded a video to YouTube claiming he supports
Juan Guaido and rejecting the authority of Nicolas Maduro.
His name is Francisco Esteban Yánez.
You can find the link to the video on the description box below.
Most high ranking officials are completely loyal to his rule.
And, in the past few years, Caracas has been raising the salaries of the soldiers.
Today, the average Venezuelan soldier can make more money than a surgeon.
But… still, it’s not that much money.
In fact, we’re talking about the equivalent of 80 dollars a month.
In other words… soldiers are still poor, like the rest of the country.
Is this enough to make the army rise against Maduro?
We don’t know.
But it’s something to take into account.
And what about those high ranking officials?
Well, they’re another story.
In fact, they live much better.
Don’t believe me?
Let’s take a walk through the SALAMANCA quarter.
SALAMANCA is the Spanish Manhattan.
A Luxury neighbourhood in the center of Madrid.
Everybody here is pretty well off and… as a side note, they vote conservative.
In 2010, only some Venezuelan officials lived here.
Some of them even made investments here.
But in recent years, more and more Maduro officials have been arriving here.
In fact, some people are starting to call this area LITTLE VENEZUELA.
‘Many times I am in a restaurant here, in Madrid, and next to me there are people I
would be scared to see in Caracas’ said LEOPOLDO LOPEZ GIL, father of LEOPOLDO LOPEZ,
a Venezuelan political prisoner.
For example, the personal nurse of Hugo Chavez bought property for 1.8 M euros in 2015.
Of course, in cash.
And just like her, other people have come with briefcases full of cash, ready to buy
luxury properties.
Even the daughter of the Minister of Defense lives in Madrid.
In other words…
Maduro’s officials are sending money to Venezuela in order to prepare for potential
exile.
Some go to Madrid, others go to Miami or Bogota…
And here’s a good way to put some pressure on the army.
Economic sanctions on government officials would restrict them from making these kinds
of investments.
This is nothing new.
In fact, this is the same policy the international community has with North Korea.
These kinds of measures put a lot of pressure on the military so that they’ll start thinking
about turning to the democratic side.
But, OK, OK, what if the army still supports the dictatorship?
What could happen here?
Can a dictatorship survive even if America doesn’t recognize it?
The answer is YES.
For example, MAO ZEDONG’s China was not recognized by Washington.
For years, White House considered Taiwan’s government to be the legitimate government
of mainland China.
Something similar could happen here.
Another possibility is an open civil war.
The army could fight Guaido, who would ask for International help.
In fact, there are rumors that America might be sending some troops to Colombia.
Also, we have found news that claims that some mercenaries have been crossing the border
from Brazil.
Is it fake news or not?
We can’t know for sure.
But it would make sense.
Nonetheless, and this is our opinión, it’s hard to believe that America or Europe would
risk so much for Venezuela.
And, Maduro himself doesn’t want a war.
Civil wars can have unintended consequences for dictators.
Especially when they want to leave their presidential palace overnight and a group of opposers catch
them.
Just look at what happened with BENITO MUSSOLINI, NICOLAE CEAUCESCU, and MUHAMMAR GADDAFI.
But this is just our opinion… now it’s your turn.
What do you think will happen in Venezuela?
Is it time for this country to recover its democracy?
Or will Maduro remain in power for years to come?
Please, leave your answer in the comment section below.
Also don’t forget to visit reconsider media, the podcast that provided the vocals in this
episode that were not mine.
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