No country has dared to ship Ukraine what they have been asking for,
for months. Of course many nations have supplied Ukraine with intelligence, munitions and weapons
that have allowed them to successfully destroy many Russian tanks and aircraft.
But despite repeated pleas by Ukrainian top Officials, the only country that has
sent fighter jets into Ukraine … is Russia. The international community has been unable
to provide Ukraine with fighter jets, but the reason, is Not What You Think!
Only 3 days after the Russian invasion began, an announcement was made that confused everyone!
“We’re going to supply arms, fights, fighters. We are going to provide even fighting jets.”
Josep Borrell, the European Union’s top foreign policy and security official
announced that the E.U. nations were going to provide Ukraine with fighter jets,
and not just ammunition … And this worried Poland.
See, the Ukrainian Air Force has MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter aircraft
which date back to the Soviet era, and that’s what Ukrainian pilots are used to flying.
If the E.U. were to send fighter jets to Ukraine, it would only make sense to send
the MiG-29s, which Poland, Bulgaria and Slovakia have in their fleet.
But Poland didn’t want to send their MiG-29s to Ukraine. In the current situations,
the line between sending ammunition, and sending weapons to Ukraine, is blurry. It
is publicly known that the US has sent Stingers to Ukraine, and even Russia reported destroying S-300
launchers that were provided by some EU state to Ukraine. But somehow, there seems to be no doubt
that President Putin would regard sending fighter jets to Ukraine as an escalation. This might be
because the fighter jets could be regarded as an offensive weapon, while surface-to-air
missiles are considered a defensive weapon. Long story short, Poland couldn’t ignore the
Russian threats to attack any country that allowed Ukrainian jets to lift off from their airfields to
engage Russian forces. Remember, President Putin had previously threatened to used the “N”-word
Shortly after Borrell’s confusing announcement was made,
NATO’s secretary general said that “NATO is not going to be part of the conflict,”
and that “NATO is not going to send troops into Ukraine or move planes into Ukrainian airspace.”
Polish President, Andrzej Duda, also said that they are “not going to send any jets
into Ukrainian airspace” as it would risk putting NATO into direct conflict with Russia.
Of course Borrell changed/denied his original comment,
saying the EU will support Ukraine Army with the basic needs, like ammunition and fuel, not jets.
Even as late as March 6th, 2022, the office of the Polish Prime Minister announced that Poland
wouldn't send its fighter jets to Ukraine or allow Ukraine to use Polish airports.
It seemed pretty settled that the EU, NATO and Poland were all uncomfortable sending the MiGs
to Ukraine. But on March 7th, US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, made a TV appearance
that he probably should not have. If Poland were to send its fighter jets to Ukraine, he was asked,
would the United States “Green Light” it, or would that escalate tensions with Russia?
“No, that gets a green light. In fact we are talking …”
So the United States, which is a member of NATO,
green lighted Poland, which is also a member of NATO, to send its MiGs
to Ukraine. What the US hadn’t considered was Polish people's familiarity … with potatoes!
On the very next day, Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that they are “ready
to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base
and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America.” Hot Potato!
A generous offer by Poland, although they also requested that the United States
sell them used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities.
Surprised by the Polish announcement, within hours, the Pentagon said that if those jets were
to depart from a U.S. and NATO base in Germany and fly into Ukrainian airspace,
it would be a serious concern for the entire NATO alliance. Hot French Fries?!
It is interesting to note that Anthony Blinken’s “Green Light” to Poland
was mostly covered by right-wing media, whereas Poland’s surprise
announcement was covered pretty equally on both sides of the political aisle,
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So for now, no MiG-29s for Ukraine. But why are these countries even sharing these plans publicly?
Could they not make plans behind closed doors and execute against them?
Spare parts are already being sent. This would be the same spare parts, just in assembled format.
The thing is even if this were to happen in secrecy, it would not be as simple as
handing over the jets to Ukrainian pilots. They need to be downgraded, just like Windows 11.
The Polish MiGs were upgraded in 2013 and 2014 with new avionics and other equipment
to increase their lifespan. Before sending those jets to Ukraine, some of the new,
sensitive technologies installed on the MiGs would likely have to be pulled out and some
need to be downgraded back to the originals, which would be a time consuming process.
Even then, there are questions about the effectiveness of such a transfer.
US and NATO officials have said that 28 additional jets might not prove
materially significant in the current context, where Russia has more modern aircraft.
Ukraine has even asked the United States to send them F-15 and F-16s.
The Ukrainian Air Force believes that they can train their experienced pilots
on the American jets within a few weeks … but that doesn’t seem feasible at all.
The training for aircraft such as the F-15s and F-16s for American pilots takes over two years at
an absolute minimum, and that will essentially produce a "pilot qualified in model" , which
is the lowest ring of pilots. They can fly the aircraft, but not "fight" with it. For a Ukrainian
pilot to go from a MIG airframe to something like an F-15 would be a challenge due to systems,
language, and other factors, even on a stripped down versions, also known as “export versions” of
the aircraft, which have reduced capability and thus have an easier learning curve. Either way,
this process would take months, not weeks. But the real issue would be logistics. The
amount of Ground Support Equipment required for those aircraft is massive. That's just to keep
them airborne. To be able to use them effectively they will require Ordnance, Avionics, Petroleum,
Oil, Lubricants, and a network to acquire uncommon materials. In a typical American flying unit,
only about 5-10% are aircrew. The other 90-95% are support personnel, with very specific
specializations. So the MiGs are Ukraine’s best option, at least in the short term.
About 2 months after the hot potato game between Poland and the United States,
the UK said that they will stand by any country who decides to send fighter jets to Ukraine.
The UK would be willing to backfill any shortfall by lending their airpower to those countries.
But is this similar to the “green light” that the US previously gave to Poland?
Or does this mean that the UK is ready to engage with Russia if things escalate to that point?
At the expense of the people of Ukraine, this war is testing NATO,
but it is also questioning the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence,
because if we knew that no nuclear buttons could be pushed, wouldn’t the
response of the international community to the Russian aggression have been different?