Welcome to team guides, where we take a look at each team's strengths and weaknesses and
simulate their hypothetical best path to dodgebolt out of 2.5 million possibilities.
Let's get to the teams.
Red Rabbits
The Red Rabbits are an extremely solid team, who especially excel at movement.
This is a very important skill in MCC, making up almost half of the games in the rotation.
Red is a top 3 team in Hole in the Wall, TGTTOS, and Parkour Tag, as well as still being above
the average for Ace Race.
While these numbers may be a bit inflated due to Purpled’s small sample size of only
three events, especially TGTTOS considering he’s only played in the new scoring system,
it still requires incredible skill to get these high scores, especially when you’re
so new to the event.
The only movement based game that the Red Rabbits struggle in is Rocket Spleef Rush,
but even then Purpled has seen rapid improvement since he first played it and Ranboo and Puffy
are consistently around top 20.
Movement isn’t the only thing this team is great at though - they’re also top 4
in every fully coinsplit game.
While Purpled didn’t do too great in the one time he played Build Mart, now that he
has some experience his scores should hopefully improve.
Wilbur is one of the best floaters and Ranboo an excellent speed builder.
Puffy’s another very efficient builder, who actually knows how to use the recipe book
when a lot of participants don’t.
They’re also the closest team to having all members score above the event average
in Grid Runners, with Puffy only being one coin off.
Sands of Time is where it gets interesting however, with the Rabbits being the best in
the event.
This is also similar to Grid Runners, where they are so close to being the only team where
all of them score above the event average, showing that while none of them absolutely
excel at the game, they’re all solid in it, although a bit inconsistent at times.
Unfortunately the Rabbits do have a weak area, and that is PVP.
They do below the event average in every PVP game, although Battle Box and Sky Battle are
only just below.
Wilbur and Ranboo are well known for their Survival Games luck, commonly getting wiped
out early into the game.
Purpled has also only played it once, in MCC21 where he got 27th, and so that really brings
down the teams score despite not being fully indicative of their potential.
Even though Puffy actually does quite well in this game, it’s not enough to bring them
up from last.
However Survival Games is very unpredictable, so they could very easily prove the stats
wrong.
Another game that’s unpredictable, this time due to the fact that it’s not been
played very often, is Meltdown.
Both times it has been played Wilbur and Ranboo’s team has gotten last, but it is only a sample
size of two.
They’re teamed with two good Meltdown players this time as well, with Purpled getting 1st
the one time he played and Puffy getting top half.
So considering this team’s two worst games are also the most unpredictable ones, it’s
looking good for the Red Rabbits.
The distributions say this team has a very wide range, getting anywhere from 1st to 9th.
You should expect to see this a lot, because this event is incredibly balanced.
While their most likely placement is 7th, they have a higher likelihood of getting top
half than not.
Even if they have a bad Survival Games or Meltdown, it’s totally possible for them
to make it dodgebolt and get Ranboo his first win.
Orange Ocelots In our full year of making team guides, we
have seen many teams with really good odds to make dodgebolt, but we've never seen one
with stats like Orange before.
Usually the statistical favourites have one or two games they absolutely dominate in,
but Orange only places first in two games, and not by very much.
The reason Orange’s stats are so good is because of their consistency: Orange places
in the top 6 in all but two of the eleven games.
They cover each other's weaknesses superbly, making this team very hard to play against.
Even with their superb consistency, Orange still has a clear best game: Rocket Spleef
Rush.
They are the best Rocket Spleef team in the event, and it's all thanks to one player:
Tubbo.
Hbomb has been a great rocket spleef player, and Jack has been a solid one himself, but
Tubbo has the second highest average in the event, only falling behind Illumina’s insane
scores.
As long as Tubbo continues to dominate this game, Orange’s odds look really good.
The one player who struggles in Rocket Spleef is Tommy, but Tubbo and HBomb’s averages
more than make up for that.
Outside of Rocket Spleef, Orange's best games are team PvP games like Sky Battle, Meltdown,
and Survival Games.
These games are a perfect example of how Orange covers each other's weaknesses.
Tubbo and Tommy’s great Meltdown averages make up for HBomb’s worst game, Hbomb and
Tubbo make up for Tommy’s lackluster SG average, and all 3 do very well in Sky Battle,
where Jack usually struggles.
Orange is more than 10% above the event average for all of these games, and if any of them
are played late Oranges chances increase significantly.
We’ve talked a lot about Tommy Tubbo and Hbomb, but one player you definitely want
to keep your eye on is Jack.
Jack is the definition of a wild card: he has placed as high as top 15 and as low as
39th.
However, Jacks had his best placement yet and his first Dodgebolt appearance in MCC
21, the last MCC he played.
In fact in MCC 21, Jack had great performances in Rocket Spleef Rush and Sky Battle, two
games he has historically struggled with but are fantastic for this team.
A lot of this team's success is going to come down to Jack, and how well he can execute
in his worst games.
Even despite this team’s consistency, they do have an apparent weakness: movement based
games.
TGTTOS, Hole in the Wall, Ace Race and Parkour Tag are Orange’s 4 lowest scoring games,
in that order.
It's no coincidence that these are also all of Tubbo’s worst games, and further demonstrates
how valuable he is to this team.
If all four games are played, Orange’s odds of making dodgebolt drop by over 30%.
Orange should avoid these if possible, and practice them if they are in the rotation.
Looking at the distribution from our simulation, Orange stands out as the statistical favourite
to make dodgebolt.
Still, these odds are far from a sure thing, and on a team as chaotic as Orange, anything
is possible.
If Orange gets PvP games late and avoids Movement games, don’t be surprised if they are one
of the teams facing off to earn a coin .
If you’re enjoying this video, make sure to subscribe so you don’t miss the second
part of this video coming out tomorrow!
Yellow Yaks
The Yellow Yaks welcome back Skeppy.
Previously, his only appearance was back in MCC14, and as such, his stats are very much
not indicative of his current skill level.
He has a very small sample size, with his only performance being on a 9th place team.
It seems safe to assume that Skeppy has a lot of potential that isn’t shown by the
stats, especially considering he has Dream on his team, who has shown how he can help
guide and train people still fresh to the event.
The Yaks have a very clear strong area - movement.
Specifically, movement that involves parkour as opposed to games like Hole in the Wall
and Rocket Spleef Rush.
They’re the best team at TGTTOS and Parkour Tag, with them being the third best at Ace
Race.
A big reason as to why is that they are definitely Dream and Skeppy’s best games, with George
and Bad being more well rounded.
In MCC14, Skeppy showed his strength in the movement games that didn’t disadvantage
him for being a newcomer as much.
Movement games late are key for Yellow to get a high placement.
Another game worth talking about is Sands of Time.
While the stats say that they will end up middle of the pack, a lot of this comes down
to the fact that, once again, Skeppy hasn’t played it.
Experience in Sands of Time is definitely very important, but some VOD reviewing could
make the experience gap a lot smaller - Slimecicle in MCC19 is a great example of someone who
did well in the sandkeeping role despite never having played.
The rest of the team is also really good at it as well.
While BadBoyHalo didn’t have the greatest run in MCC21, in 16 and AS he proved he was
a very competent runner.
While we like to say that George has plot armour, he does also have a lot of skill in
SoT and a pretty good understanding of risk vs reward.
And then there’s Dream, the player who has gotten 1st the last 3 times he’s played,
4 including AS.
The stats might not fully show it, but this team is very scary in the dungeon
Aside from the obvious weakness in Build Mart, this team also has another weak area - PVP.
This isn’t because any of them consistently do poorly in the games though, in fact they’ve
all shown they can do well in this area.
There’s just a lot of inconsistency, and so PVP games are more of a big question mark
than anything else.
It’s better to get them out of the way early just to be safe.
If we look at the distributions, we can see that yellow can come anywhere from 1st to
10th, showing their huge range.
But the fact that stats suggest that yellow are able to come first despite Skeppy’s
slim sample size and potential to do much better than his stats say is a very good omen
for this team.
This is definitely not a team to overlook.
Lime Llamas
Similarly to Orange, Lime’s strength comes from how their specialties complement one
another.
Krtzyy is very much a PvP player, excelling in games like Survival Games and Battle Box.
Seapeekay specialises more in movement, with games such as Ace Race being his best.
Finally, the Scott and Shubble duo are more team game focused, their best games being
ones such as Build Mart.
All of this combined makes for an extremely well-rounded team, with one of the lowest
standard deviations we’ve ever seen.
From their best game to their worst, there’s only an about 300 coin gap, with the majority
of their games lying in just a 100 coin range.
What’s more, all of these players have proven they can be capable leaders in their area
of skill, so usually weaker scores could be heavily boosted.
Even with this consistency, Lime has a standout game - Ace Race.
They get 1st this game, beating almost every other team by a long shot with the exception
of Pink.
It’s also one of the more dominant wins this MCC, scoring more than 28% above the
average score.
Ace Race is obviously Seapeekay’s best game - he has the 3rd highest average this MCC
- but Krtzyy and Scott don’t do too poorly either.
In the case of Krtzyy, Ace Race is surprisingly high for him compared to other movement games,
coming in at his second best game, narrowly losing to Survival Games.
We’ve also seen Scott do very well before, and Ace Race is his 4th best game.
Shubble on the other hand doesn’t do the best in Ace Race, but there’s a good chance
she’ll be able to do better than last event now that she has more experience and knowledge
of the Turtle Run map.
Speaking of it, we’ve already seen Seapeekay do extremely well with the Turtle Run map,
getting 1st last MCC, but Scott and Shubble didn’t fare as well coming in 21st and 32nd
respectively.
However, as already stated, their previous experience and potential VOD reviewing of
the map [plug the turtle run video?
lol] will certainly allow them to do better this time around.
Krtzyy hasn’t actually played Ace Race’s newest map yet, but looking at how he’s
fared on new maps before we see that he still does fairly well, coming in at an average
of about 10th place.
Looking at their distributions, Lime has a fairly good chance of getting into Dodgebolt,
with that occurring about a third of the time.
Even with that, their placements range all the way down to 8th, but the farther down
you go, the lesser the chance, with 8th happening less than 0.001% of the time.
And while their most likely placement is only 4th, it isn’t a long shot between there
and 1st, in points and probability.
Green Geckos
The Green Geckos are a team heavily underrated by the stats.
5up has incredible leadership, and while that doesn't always translate into individual coins,
he can boost a team's placement way above where they are predicted to be.
That’s not to say he isn’t a great individual player either - both him and TapL have shown
in the past to be absolute menaces, and they have a lot of potential on their own.
Gem is another player on this team whose individual scores don’t fully represent her ability
- she’s never dropped out of the top 6 teams in any fully coin split game, and her movement
has been rapidly improving.
On a team where the synergy is great, Oli has proven to be able to perform amazingly,
such as his 16th in his last event, and he’s said before how much he feels that benefits
him.
This team definitely seems like one that will have impeccable communication.
It therefore comes to no surprise that Green’s best games are team games.
5up’s leadership in Grid Runners helped him become the first person to get two wins
in the game, and Gem’s never dropped out of the top half.
When they teamed together in MCC20, they were top 3 in every team game played.
While TapL and Oli are more inconsistent, they’ve also had strong performances in
the past and with some strong leadership they can definitely perform just as well.
TGTTOS is a game that the stats say they will struggle in, but when looking at their past
performances there’s not really any reason to believe they will do badly in it.
TapL is incredible in this game mode, and if we ignore his trolling in MCC22, he’s
super scary.
In fact, his MCC20 performance is almost the coin record, second only to Dream in MCC18.
5up is very commonly top 20 in the game, even being just outside the top 5 in MCC18, and
Oli got 4th in his last event due to multiple top 10’s as well as a 1st place in Glide.
While Gem hasn’t had a standout performance in a canon event yet, it’s worth noting
that her placements have only gotten better since she joined MCC, even when on a weaker
To Get To The Other Side team.
The Green Geckos are a monster in this game, and they’ll probably be able to get quite
a few top 10 bonuses as well as a lot of team bonuses, as they’ve all got a lot of skill.
The simulation says that Green are the only team that can’t get to dodgebolt, but we’ve
covered why they’re severely underrated in it.
This team can absolutely defy the odds on the day of the event, especially with their
incredible communication as well as their overall well roundedness.
It would probably be a smart move to try and get Ace Race early though, or ideally not
played at all.