Rising costs and higher interest rates. It’s hard to talk about
the economy these days without thinking of one word: Inflation.
But as many countries across the globe battle sky-high inflation, here in Switzerland,
a small mountainous nation in western Europe, the rise in prices has been far less dramatic.
Have you felt the effect of price rises and inflation over the past year?
Um, not that much to be honest.
It’s been all right.
Most of the things, it’s OK.
You think Switzerland’s somehow got it more right than maybe other places?
I think so.
Inflation in Switzerland hit a 29-year high of 3.5% in 2022.
While still high by Swiss standards, it is well below the double-digit inflation
rates in other advanced economies like the U.S., U.K. and euro zone.
So, what is it about the Swiss economy that means it has largely avoided rampant inflation,
and what can other countries learn from it?
There are multiple parts to Switzerland’s inflationary story.
For starters, prices in the country are already beginning from a high base.
Switzerland is one of the world’s wealthiest countries, with a GDP per capita
outstripping that of other major economies like the U.S., Japan and Germany.
It is also home to some of the richest citizens in the world,
with an average wealth of nearly $700,000 per adult — and a steep cost-of-living to match.
In 2022, the Swiss cities of Zurich and Geneva held steady among the
world’s 10 most expensive cities, even as inflation pushed up living
costs in other pricey places like Singapore, New York and Tel Aviv.
Tobias Straumann is a professor of modern and economic history at the University of Zurich.
It’s because people are on average quite rich, the share of food in the overall budget of households
is not as big as maybe in other countries. We also have inequality, of course.
But, from an international perspective, we have I think a very well-functioning social policy.
As a result, Swiss citizens are generally less impacted by price hikes because they
tend to spend a lower proportion of their income on essentials versus discretionary
items such as vacations and hobbies, which they can scale back when prices go up.
Another reason for Switzerland’s relative price stability stems from the strong Swiss franc.
The country’s currency has also steadily strengthened,
rising in value against the euro to reach parity in 2022.
And while the U.S. dollar strengthened against many major currencies in 2022,
the Swiss franc held steady amid volatility in Europe.
That’s largely due to its status as a “safe haven” currency or defensive asset.
The Swiss franc is heavily backed by large reserve of gold, bonds and financial assets,
which help the Swiss National Bank ensure the currency’s stability during times of volatility.
It’s always been a safe haven currency in times of crisis,
and it actually started about 100 years ago, after World War I. And of course,
with the war and all that, and Covid, the Swiss franc again was in much demand.
The strength of its currency is also beneficial for its economy,
which is heavily dependent on international trade.
In 2020, Switzerland imported around $300 billion worth of goods and services,
the majority of which come from neighboring EU countries.
A stronger Swiss franc therefore provides an effective discount on those imports.
In the same year, Switzerland exported a near equal amount. But those tended
to be higher value goods and services, such as watches and pharmaceuticals,
which are less susceptible to price fluctuations than low margin, mass produced commodities.
Switzerland is also less exposed to some volatile external factors that pushed
prices higher in 2022, such as soaring oil and gas prices caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Home to around 1,500 lakes and numerous rivers,
hydropower plays a key role in Switzerland’s energy production.
Hydroelectricity accounts for more than a tenth of Switzerland’s energy consumption,
making the country less reliant on oil and gas imports than some of its European neighbors.
Swiss energy suppliers are also largely publicly owned,
which means they are less exposed to extreme market volatility
through financial safety nets but are also subject to more strict pricing regulation.
In Switzerland, we have a lot of state control of prices, which is kind of strange because you think
of Switzerland as a very liberal country. But in the crucial areas, like energy and rent,
you have a lot of public controls. That means that the inflation rate is stretched over time.
It doesn’t mean that there’s no inflation at all, but you can avoid that you have a certain short-term effect.
At the end of 2022, energy prices in Switzerland rose at a rate of 16.2%; below the levels faced by
major peers like Germany, the Netherlands, the U.K. and Italy.
Switzerland’s energy regulator now expects prices to rise by a further 27% in 2023,
with the typical annual household energy bill topping 1,215 Swiss francs.
Jean-Claude Huber is the manager of Hotel Piz Buin Klosters in the east of Switzerland.
He said standardization of long-term energy contracts
have sheltered businesses like his from rising costs in 2023.
This year, I’m not worried because the contract is still the end of the year.
Afterwards, it will go up by multiple of five, probably, so that’s really a big increase.
But, OK, we’ll have to manage that.
The four-star hotel’s dynamic pricing structure also means that Huber has
been able to pass on price hikes of around 5-10% to the consumer without hurting demand.
We can absorb it, we can play with the rates much more than if you have fixed rates all the time,
and that helps us a lot. If you take two- or three-star hotels,
they will have much more problems because these people are very much more sensitive on the costs.
Alongside energy, Switzerland also has stringent controls on the price of goods and services,
making them less susceptible to inflation-led fluctuations.
Of the core products used to measure inflation in the euro zone,
including food, housing and transport, almost one-third are subject to price
regulation in Switzerland — more than any other European country.
High tariffs on certain agricultural imports also mean that domestically produced foods,
such as milk and cheese, are preferentially priced and less impacted by movements in global food markets.
We try to buy as much as possible Swiss, but even regional, which really means bread, milk products
and so on, to buy them locally. Long-term, you want to have a local industry working,
functioning. And you need farmers, so it’s important that they can sell their products.
In December of 2022, Swiss food prices rose at an annualized rate of 4.0%.
That compares with 11.9% in the U.S., 16.9% in the U.K., and 19.8% in Germany.
At the restaurant, the food costs we can adapt very easily in increasing
the cost of the meals. But we’re cautious also, because you shouldn’t exaggerate.
All of that doesn’t mean Swiss consumers have been totally immune to recent price hikes, however.
In fact, some say they are feeling the pinch more than ever.
So, where have you felt it most?
Energy prices, electricity.
Some groceries have gotten more expensive.
As usual, it’s the poor people or the low wages that suffer from it,
and they really have a problem.
Switzerland’s central bank said it now expects inflation to dip
to an average of 2.4% in 2023 before falling to 1.8% in 2024.
Even if we have a kind of recessionary scenario, people are still coming in, and that of course
stabilizes demand. And I expect the same thing for this year, 2023, and probably also for 2024.
What, if anything, do you think other countries can learn from the Swiss model?
Exchange rate policy is very difficult to imitate, because we have the euro,
and the euro has to consider all countries. And I think for some
countries an appreciation may be good for import prices but really bad for export.
This question about who owns energy production. Maybe it’s a good idea
to think about to renationalize at least part of it to be more resilient and to have
a long-term owner who really looks for the consumer. In other places in Europe, there was
a clear shift to privatization and, in the medium to short-term, that was a very good idea,
but it’s not very resilient and they are haunted by these decisions now. At the time, many people said the
Swiss are too conservative. But I’d say in retrospect it was a very good decision.