Turkey is home to the largest refugee population in the world.
The official figures are pretty damning in themselves,
but the real number of arrivals is estimated to be around 9 million people.
This is over 10% of the entire population.
The vast majority of them are from Syria
but in recent years they have been joined by hundreds of thousands from Afghanistan, Pakistan and other countries.
In a country with 12% unemployment and inflation now running at 70%,
from an economic view this is a worrying enough situation.
Demographically this is also extremely dangerous.
But the major worry for Turks right now is the safety of their children on the streets and the culture of the country.
This has been a major issue for millions of Turks for many years now.
The opposition has made encouraging noises on this issue.
Last year the İYİ party leader Meral Akşener promoted a slogan ‘Hudut Namustur’
translating as ‘Borders are Honour’.
In reality though, the Turkish opposition has not had to commit to anything more than
promises to invest in Syria’s reconstruction and help repatriate those who want to return.
In the face of an unrepentant Erdogan, who only last month said categorically ‘we will not send them back’,
the opposition managed to benefit from the support of those worried about the issue
without having to commit to anything solid.
The situation, meanwhile, has only continued deteriorating.
The Syrians have their own mafia now in Turkey.
The stories of women and girls being harassed are daily.
As are the stories of Turkish youth being stabbed and attacked.
If the Arab culture wasn’t different enough to Turkey’s Mediterranean atmosphere,
then the Afghans are just a different level entirely.
At the end of this year’s Ramadan, Istanbul’s most popular public spaces were full to the brim
with crowds of young Afghan and Syrian men loitering and waving flags and blasting music.
Footage of these scenes were shared endlessly on social media.
This was the straw the broke the camel’s back.
There was outrage.
The mood in the country has changed dramatically over just a couple of weeks.
Just a few days ago, a filmmaker named Hande Karacasu
released a short film titled ‘Silent Invasion’.
It got over 3 million views in just 3 days. it clearly worried
It clearly has worried the authorities as she was arrested
but thankfully she was eventually released soon after.
Waiting in the wings for this moment was one man,
who had for the previous months been quietly building his reputation on this issue:
Ümit Özdağ.
Özdağ, whose father was a righthand man of legendary Turkish nationalist figure Alparslan Türkeş,
is a politician like no other.
Relatively unknown until now, his popularity has exploded in recent weeks.
Having only founded his party late last year,
he has been relentless in his media campaign,
and he has finally broken into the mainstream consciousness in a way that is extremely similar to that of one Donald J. Trump.
From his widespread use of memes,
to his ‘plague on all your houses’ positioning against a corrupt political establishment,
to his personal mocking of rival opposition candidates on Twitter,
Özdağ is following the Trump playbook almost to the letter.
Unlike Trump, Özdağ is an academic, specifically a political scientist, teaching as a university professor for many years.
So despite his razor sharp focus on the refugee/immigration issue,
he also has a fully developed platform for all policy sectors.
They include creating ‘Fortress Anatolia’,
developing Freeports and high-tech industry in the regions outside of Istanbul
and returning to the Turkish Republic’s founding values.
Özdağ, unlike all other Turkish politicians,
doesn’t beat around the bush and try to give politically correct, vague responses.
He says it like it is,
in precise and clear language,
always giving a logical explanation.
He has literally thought out everything.
Just in case you were in any doubt of the validity of the Trump comparison,
take this video that Özdağ himself posted on his Twitter earlier this week.
By using memeolgy in this way,
Özdağ is displaying an understanding of the youth
that none of his rivals (be they in the opposition or in government) possess
they simply don't understand.
Turkey has the youngest population in Europe, and they are completely fed up.
Their vote alone is large enough to completely change the outcome of any election
but Özdağ’s appeal reaches all sections of society.
Turkish media figures quickly started to label him and his Zafer Party as racist.
For many left-liberals, this is their genuine position.
Like their counterparts in the West, they are unable to think long-term or objectively
and can only think in simple slogans.
These people forget what country they actually live in...
Turkey is not Sweden.
Turkey is an extremely nationalist country,
but actual ethnic racism based on skin colour has not really ever been a thing in Turkey,
nor was it in the Ottoman Empire...
Yes, Turks are culturally chauvinist,
but they are not racist,
and more importantly, they are not politically correct.
Özdağ knows this fully well
He also knows that the more he provokes the establishment into attacking him
the more popular he himself becomes.
And this is exactly what is happening.
A hashtag trending on Turkish twitter this week was literally #IAmRacist.
The gist of the majority of tweets was
‘If wanting Turkey to remain Turkish and not be invaded by millions of foreigners is racist, then yes I am racist!’
The Özdağ effect is having a clearly having an impact, it's just visible.
The same Erodgan who said ‘we won’t send anyone back’ just a month ago,
announced this week that he is 'preparing a plan to ensure the return of over a million Syrians’.
All of this simply played into Özdağ’s hands.
He was able to claim, legitimately, that he is single-handedly shaping the agenda.
Following this, Erdogan’s interior minister, Süleyman Soylu
went on TV and completely nonsensically and without any evidence
accused Özdağ of being a puppet of George Soros.
Özdağ, whose political 6th sense is on the level of, if not superior to that of Trump,
showed up the next morning outside of the Interior Ministry,
calling Soylu a coward
and telling him to come and face him like a man....
Every single TV channel covered it.
As you can see from our previous video on the state of Turkish political parties,
Mr Özdağ’s Zafer Party doesn’t even register on most polls,
But unless there is a dramatic change in events, this situation is very likely to change.
When reading the comments under his interviews and speeches,
it is impossible to not notice the parallels between other populist movements of recent years,
be it Trump, Brexit or even Marine Le Pen.
'For the first time in many years, I will vote for a party that shares the exact concerns I have in mind. I feel so calm!'
As a life-long CHP voter, my next vote will be for the Zafer Party, I will vote with a clear conscience.
I will do everything for my darling daughter and her future.
Ümit Özdağ has become the voice of the silent majority.
He became the Hope (Ümit) for the Turkish nation, just like his name.
My vote will be for the Zafer Party!
I'm 45 years old, I've seen dozens of governments and parties come and go, but none of them have excited me as much as the Zafter Party.
Mr. Özdağ is like one of our family and I trust him! My vote belongs to the Zafer Party.
Didn't know we had politicians like this in our country!
While listening to this man, I actually feel hope.
Mr. Özdağ is the leader we have been waiting for years,
you have come into our lives like Gandalf,
I am so glad to have you, I am glad that you founded the Zafer party.
For the first time in years, I've finally seen a leader whose every word I completely agree with
I feel safe as he speaks. For the first time, I will vote with peace of mind.
I am 21 years old, I have never supported a party in my life and I don't even understand politics,
but Ümit Özdağ gives me a lot of confidence.
I've researched his past, I've read his writings... he is the only politician who gives me confidence in the current situation,
I hope we can save our country.
There are thousands of comments like this, it literally doesn’t end.
Turkey has not seen a politician who is able to strike such a strong connection with the average citizen
since Mr Erdogan first ran for election himself twenty years ago.
Turkey has not seen a political party that is able to position itself so powerfully
against a complacent and uninspiring political establishment
since the AKP itself took up this role.
I usually am very cautious about making big predictions with any certainty
but on this I am absolutely sure.
I am watching this phenomenon with my own eyes - I can see it coming a mile away.
Ümit Özdağ is about to completely disrupt the entire 2023 election campaign and the run up to it.
He will single handedly change the political debate.
This is - of course - if he isn’t arrested on trumped up charges or curtailed by the state in some other way.
We will be following developments closely
and hope to bring you all an update in the near future
As always, thank you so much for watching and
if you haven’t already, please give us a like and hit the subscribe button.
Until next time…