MUCH YOU’RE SPENDING AND WHAT IS
IN YOUR BANK ACCOUNT AND WHAT
AMERICANS FEEL IS A RECESSION.
>> Neil: I WANT TO GO TO GENE
SPERLING, TOP ECONOMIC ADVISER
TO PRESIDENT.
VERY GOOD TO SEE YOU.
>> THANK YOU.
>> Neil: THIS BACK AND FORTH
WHETHER IT’S A RECESSION OR NOT,
WHEN BILL CLINTON MADE TO IT THE
WHITE HOUSE IN 92, YOU GUYS WERE
ARGUING THAT WE IN A RECESSION
AND WE WERE.
THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION WAS
ARGUING AT THE TIME THAT WE WERE
CLIMBING OUT OF IT AND
STATISTICS WOULD BEAR THEM OUT.
AREN’T YOU DOING THE SAME THING?
>> I THINK ALL THE PRESIDENT AND
ALL ANY OF US ARE DOING IS
TRYING TO OFFER A BALANCED VIEW
OF THE ECONOMY.
FIRST OF ALL, EVERY FAMILY IS
THE WORLD’S GREATEST EXPERT ON
HOW THEY’RE DOING.
WE KNOW THAT MILLIONS OF
AMERICAN FAMILIES CANNOT ESCAPE
THE HIGHER PRICES THAT HAVE COME
FROM THIS GLOBAL INFLATION THE
WORLD IS GOING THROUGH NOW AND
THAT THAT’S A SQUEEZE AT THE GAS
PUMP, A SQUEEZE AT THE GROCERY
LINE.
WE UNDERSTAND THAT.
ON THE OTHER HAND, I DON’T THINK
THERE’S ANYWAY TO LOOK AT THE
LAST SIX MONTHS AND SAY THIS IS
WHAT A RECESSION LOOKS LIKE.
THE 2.7 MILLION JOBS CREATED IN
THE FIRST MONTHS OF THIS YEAR IS
OTHERWISE THE MOST JOBS CREATED
IN THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF THE
YEAR IN THE HISTORY OF OUR
COUNTRY.
THAT DOESN’T MEAN EVERYTHING WAS
GREAT ABOUT THE ECONOMY.
BUT THE CHAIRMAN OF THE FED,
JEROME POWELL SAID YESTERDAY,
THERE’S NO WAY THAT A SIX-MONTH
PERIOD WITH 3.6% UNEMPLOYMENT
AND 2.7 MILLION JOBS CREATED IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT YOU THINK,
ANYONE THINKS OF A RECESSION --
>> Neil: THAT MIGHT BE THE CASE,
BUT THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS, I
CAN CITE MANY MORE STATISTICS
THAT SHOW THAT THINGS ARE
RECESSIONARY.
I CAN TALK ABOUT FACTORY
PRODUCTION, RETAIL SALES,
MORTGAGE DEMAND THE WORST IT’S
BEEN IN 20 YEARS, TALK ABOUT
EXISTING HOME SALES GOING DOWN.
NEW HOME SALES GOING DOWN.
>> YOU CAN ALSO --
>> Neil: WHY -- WHEN YOU SAY
WE’RE NOT IN A RECESSION,
WHATEVER YOU GET FROM THAT AND
AMERICANS HEAR THAT AND REMEMBER
THE STUFF THAT I’M TALKING
ABOUT, THEY THINK YOU’RE OUT OF
TOUCH, GENE.
YOU ALMOST MAKE IT SOUNDS LIKE
CAKE.
THE CAKE IS DOUBLE THE PRICE.
>> EXCEPT I DIDN’T.
EXCEPT WE AREN’T AND I DIDN’T.
I EXPECTED BY SAYING EVERY
FAMILY IS THE GREATEST EXPERT.
PEOPLE FEEL SQUEEZED --
>> Neil: NO, THEY FEEL IT’S A
RECESSION, GENE.
THEY FEEL IT’S A RECESSION.
>> WHEN THEY GO TO THE GAS PUMP,
THEY DO FEEL THAT.
I DON’T KNOW WHAT WORDS THEY
WANT TO USE TO DESCRIBE IT, BUT
WE UNDERSTAND PEOPLE --
>> Neil: ACKNOWLEDGE THEIR PAIN.
JUST ACKNOWLEDGE THEIR PAIN.
IF YOU DON’T WANT TO CALL IT
RECESSION, FINE.
ACKNOWLEDGE THEIR PAIN.
>> HERE’S THE THING.
YOU JUST SAID ACKNOWLEDGE THEIR
PAIN FOUR TIMES.
I LITERALLY STARTED MY
DISCUSSION HERE BY SAYING THAT
PEOPLE FELT SQUEEZED AND A GUT
PUNCH FOR HIGHER PRICES.
NO MATTER HOW MANY TIMES I DO
THAT, YOU’RE NOT GOING TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THAT I SAID THAT.
>> Neil: YOU MENTIONED THE JOBS
BACKDROP, GENE.
>> THAT’S NOT TRUE.
>> Neil: I SAID FOUR OR FIVE
DIFFERENT THINGS THAT ARE BAD.
YOU’RE NOT CALLING IT A
RECESSION.
I GET IT.
WHAT WOULD YOU CALL IT?
WHAT WOULD YOU CALL WHAT WE’RE
IN NOW?
>> AFTER THE RECORD -- RED HOT
ECONOMY WE HAD IN 2021, YOU’RE
SEEING UNDERSTANDABLY A CALLING
AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS
RAISED RATES.
THE GOAL IS FOR US TO BE ABLE TO
MAKE A TRANSITION TO A MORE
STABLE GROWTH WITH LOWER PRICES.
AND WE ARE NOT DENYING ANY OF
THE THINGS THAT ARE AFFECTING
PEOPLE IN TERMS OF HIGHER
PRICES.
IF YOU’RE CREATING A MORE
BALANCED PICTURE OF THE ECONOMY
SO THAT YOU’RE NOT FEEDING MORE
NEGATIVITY ABOUT THE OVERALL
ECONOMY, BUT YOU HAVE TO
RECOGNIZE THE 2.7 MILLION JOBS,
3.6% UNEMPLOYMENT, THE FACT THAT
SPENDING ON SERVICES ACTUALLY
CONTRIBUTED TO GROWTH AND MAJOR
BANKS WHEN THEY DID THEIR
EARNING REPORTS, THEY SAW NO
SIGNS OF A RECESSION AND THAT
J.P. MORGAN SAID THEY SAW
SPENDING UP 10% HIGHER THAN LAST
YEAR.
EVERYTHING IS ROSY?
OF COURSE NOT.
WE SHOULD HAVE A BALANCED VIEW.
IF YOU HAVE A BALANCED VIEW, YOU
SEE A PICTURE OF MUCH MORE
RESILIENCE THAN WHAT YOU’RE
SUGGESTING.
YOU DO NOT SEE THE KIND OF MAJOR
CONTRACTION OR LAY-OFFS THAT
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN OUR
COUNTRY WITH A RECESSION.
THERE’S NEVER EVER HISTORY OF
OUR COUNTRY BEEN A PERIOD WHERE
WE’VE GROWN BY OVER 2 MILLION
JOBS IN SIX --
>> Neil: BUT LAY-OFFS ARE
STARTING.
YOU’RE RIGHT.
WE’RE AT A HIGHER POINT AND HAVE
A LOT FURTHER TO GO TO SUFFER
GREATLY.
BUT I DO FIND INTERESTING, NO
OFFENSE, WHEN BILL CLINTON WAS
SAYING THAT WE’RE IN A
RECESSION, IT’S GETTING WORSE.
IN FACT, WE LEARNED IN
RETROSPECT, WE WERE COMING OUT
OF IT.
YOU KNEW THAT AT THE TIME.
I KNOW HOW POLITICS IS PLAYED ON
BOTH SIDES.
I HAVE NO AXE TO GRIND WITH
EITHER PARTY --
>> I HAVE TO GO BACK 30 YEARS --
>> Neil: GO BACK TO THAT.
IT’S THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT YOU
WERE DOING BACK THEN.
>> NO, THIS IS A -- WE’RE
PRETENDING A BALANCED VIEW.
WE’RE RECOGNIZING -- WE
UNDERSTAND -- 9.6% INFLATION IN
THE 38 COUNTRIES OF THE OECD.
WE UNDERSTAND THE FACT THAT --
>> Neil: YOU’RE NOT BREAKING
ABOUT 9.1% IN THE COUNTRY, ARE
YOU, BY COMPARISON?
WE’RE DOING BETTER, YOU’RE NOT
SAYING THAT?
>> NO.
THAT’S WHAT YOU’RE SAYING.
I’M NOT SAYING THAT.
>> Neil: YOU SAID YOU’RE
COMPARING TO IT 9.6%.
>> I’M JUST EXPLAINING A FACTUAL
NUMBER, WHAT THE OECD SAYS.
WHAT WAS --
>> Neil: 9.1% YOU ACKNOWLEDGE IS
AWFUL, RIGHT?
>> WHAT I WAS GOING TO SAY WAS
THAT THE FACT THAT -- THE FACT
IT’S A GLOBAL PHENOMENON IS OF
LITTLE COMFORT TO AN AMERICAN
GOING TO THE GROCERY STORE WHO
FEELS SQUEEZED.
WE UNDERSTAND THAT.
WE’RE NOT ME GAITING THAT.
WE’RE VERY HAPPY THAT -- THESE
ARE THE REASONS WHY WE’RE DOING
THE THINGS THAT WE HAVE, WHY WE
HAVE A MILLION A DAY STRATEGIC
PETROLEUM RELEASE, WHICH HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO THE 75 CENTS THAT
GAS HAS COME DOWN.
WHY WE’RE TALKING ABOUT PASSING
A PRESCRIPTION DRUG CAP TO LOWER
PRICES ON PRESCRIPTION DRUGS.
LOWER PRICES ON HEALTH PREMIUMS,
TO LOWER PRICES ON ENERGY.
ALL OF THESE THINGS ARE IN THE
INFLATION REDUCTION ACT.
SO THE FACT THAT WE UNDERSTAND
THAT IS WHY THE PRESIDENT SAID
THAT LOWERING PRICES AND HELPING
OUT THE POCKETBOOK OF WORKING
FAMILIES IS HIS NUMBER 1
PRIORITY.
>> Neil: THEY CALL IT THE
INFLATION REDUCTION ACT.
THIS IS -- THIS IS A NEW
SPENDING INITIATIVE AND CALLING
IT THE INFLATION -- NORMALLY
GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS WHAT GOT
THIS WHOLE BALL ROLLING HERE.
YOU COME UP WITH A STAMP LIKE
THAT ON SOMETHING, IT’S MORE
GOVERNMENT SPENDING.
YOU HOPE TO EXACT SOME SAVINGS
BUT THAT’S NOT THE RECORD.
>> LET’S LOOK AT THE OVERALL
PLAN.
WE HAVE DISAGREEMENTS WITH SOME
OF OUR FRIENDS.
BUT THOSE FRIENDS LIKE JOE
MANCHIN AND LARRY SUMMERS AGREE
THIS IS PAID FOR AND WILL REDUCE
THE DEFICIT BY $300 BILLION AND
IT’S ANTI-INFLATIONARY AND WILL
LOWER PRESCRIPTION PRICES AND
ENERGY FOR 13 MILLION.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT AS A WHOLE,
IT’S AN ANTI INFLATIONARY BILL
AND THERE’S WIDE SUPPORT FOR
THIS.
>> Neil: YOU ARE VERY GOOD AT
ECONOMICS.
THERE’S NO WAY YOU CAN THINK
THAT MORE GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS
GOING TO CURE INFLATION.
I JUST DON’T THINK YOU BELIEVE
THAT.
>> GIVING MEDICARE THE ABILITY
TO NEGOTIATE LOWER PRICES TO
SAVE $288 BILLION FOR MEDICARE,
SO YOU’RE LOWERING GOVERNMENT
SPENDING AND LOWERING WHAT
SENIORS PAY FOR PRESCRIPTION
DRUGS AND CAPPING IT, YES, I
BELIEVE THAT IS GOING TO BE
ANTI-INFLATION AND LOWER PRICES.
JUST ASKING THE MOST WELL OFF
AMERICANS TO PAY THEIR FAIR
SHARE, TO CLOSE THE LOOP
HOLES --
>> Neil: BY THE WAY, WHAT IS
FAIR SHARE, GENE?
I ALWAYS HEAR THAT.
WHAT IS FAIR SHARE FOR A RICH
PERSON?
I KNOW ABOUT THE CORPORATIONS
AND THOSE THAT -- BUT FOR AN
INDIVIDUAL, WHAT IS FAIR SHARE
TO YOU?
37% NOW.
YOU WANT TO BRING IT UP 39.6.
WHAT IS FAIR SHARE?
WHAT LEVEL ARE THEY PAYING TAXES
THAT GENE SPERLING AND THE WHITE
HOUSE CAN SAY FINALLY YOU’RE
PAYING YOUR FAIR SHARE.
>> THE ONE THAT IS RELEVANT TO
THE BILL WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
IS -- ALL THIS BUSINESS SAYS IF
YOU’RE REPORTING OVER A BILLION
DOLLARS OF PROFIT, TO YOUR
SHAREHOLDERS AND TO THE MARKETS,
YOU SHOULD BE PAYING 15% ON
THAT.
>> Neil: TAKE THAT OFF -- WHAT
ABOUT WEALTHY INDIVIDUALS THEN?
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, NO MATTER
WHO YOU TAX, COMPANIES OR
OTHERWISE, THIS IS THE
ENVIRONMENT TO RAISE TAXES ON
ANYONE.
>> WHAT YOU’RE DOING HERE.
WE’RE NOT RAISING RATES THAT IS
NOT RELEVANT TO THE DISCUSSION
WE’RE HAVING.
WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE CHIPS
BILLS, YOU’RE SEEING ONE OF THE
BEST DAYS FOR CREATING
INCENTSIVES FOR PEOPLE TO
INCREASE THE SUPPLY OF SEMI
CONDUCTORS THROUGH THE CHILL
BILL AND THROUGH THIS INFLATION
REDUCTION ACT, INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF CLEAN ENERGY,
MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION DONE
HERE IN THE UNITED STATES.
I THINK IN WILL BE A BOOM FOR
THE BOTTOM LINE OF ALL, WHICH IS
THE LOCATION AND CREATION OF
MANUFACTURING AND HIGH VALUE
ADDED JOBS IN THE UNITED STATES.
>> Neil: WE SHALL SEE.
THE JURY IS OUT.
HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL IF THAT IS
THE CASE.
FINALLY, LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT
THE FEDERAL RESERVE.
YOU DON’T LIKE TO JUDGE WHAT
IT’S DOING OR NOT DOING.
IT’S BEEN RAISING RATES.
YOU WENT FROM ZERO IN MARK TO
ABOUT 2.5% RIGHT NOW.
THEY EXPECT TO KEEP RAISING
RATES AGGRESSIVELY. MANY ARGUE BY THE END OF THE
MANY ARGUE BY THE END OF THE
YEAR, IT WOULD BE 4 OR 5%.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> WE HAVE SUCH RESPECT FOR THE
INDEPENDENT FEDERAL RESERVE.
WE HAVE THE SAME POLICY AND THE
SAME ONE UNDER PRESIDENT CLINTON
OR PRESIDENT OBAMA OF NOT
COMMENTING ON THE MONETARY
DECISION.
I’LL COME BACK ONE DAY AND TELL
YOU MY VIEWS --
>> Neil: YOU KNOW THAT THEY --
THEIR GOAL --
>> THEIR GOAL --
>> Neil: THEY WILL RAISE RATES
TO WHATEVER THE INFLATION IS TO
GET IT DONE AND KEEP IT DOWN.
NOW, IF THEY WERE TO DO THAT IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT, THEY WOULD
HAVE TO RAISE RATES TO 8.9%.
DO YOU FEAR THAT?
>> I DON’T -- I’M NOT SURE I
AGREE WITH THAT ASSESSMENT THAT
YOU JUST SAID.
AGAIN, THIS IS JUST A POLICY OF
THE WHITE HOUSE WHICH WE THINK
IS A GOOD POLICY, NOT
COMMENTING --
>> Neil: I UNDERSTAND.
BUT THAT’S THE FED GOAL TO MATCH
THEIR RATE WITH THE INFLATION
RATE.
THEY COULD KEEP RAISING RATES,
THAT THEY DON’T HAVE TO GO THAT
HIGH AND INFLATION WILL COME
DOWN AS A RESULT.
WHAT IF WE DID?
>> I WILL LEAVE THAT TO YOUR
DISCUSSION WITH SO MANY OTHER
EXPERTS THAT ARE NOT WORKING FOR
THE WHITE HOUSE RIGHT NOW AND
DON’T HAVE TO WORRY AS WE SHOULD
ABOUT RESPECTING THE
INDEPENDENCE OF THANK GOD WHAT
WE HAVE IN THE UNITED STATES, AN
INDEPENDENT FEDERAL RESERVE THAT
IS ABLE TO MAKE THESE DECISIONS
BASED ON THEIR ASSESSMENT OF THE