When it comes to modelling Scenarios,
I suppose we're like a team of window cleaners,
cleaning the windows for our colleagues,
who confront a future which is unknown and uncertain.
We set the context in which they can envisage
how their decisions might play out.
Let me be clear.
Scenarios are stories about the future, but they're not predictions.
They're about understanding where we are today
and exploring what could happen in the future...
...stretching our imagination and challenging our perception,
bringing into view possibilities
that we might not have previously considered or understood.
Pierre Wack, the first head of the Shell Scenarios team,
called this "the gentle art of re-perceiving".
Pierre believed that through re-perception,
we can pick out elements of the future that have already happened,
but whose implications have yet to unfold.
He called these elements "inevitable surprises".
Pierre's analogy was the Ganges River.
When you see heavy monsoon rain at the upper part of the basin,
you can anticipate with certainty that the Ganges will flood
two days later at Rishikesh, further down-river.
And it's numbers that provide the backbone logic
and rigour to these future possibilities.
The numbers are critical for understanding
what the Scenario really means for the energy system.
How big is big? Or how fast is fast?
I led the development of our World Energy Model,
which we use for our projections of the energy system.
And as I see it, the most important role of the model
is to keep us honest,
to make sure our Scenario story all adds up consistently.
What we seek to achieve is a suitable balance
where the model can test the Scenario story as well as reflect it.
For example, if a Scenario story involves
stronger efficiency drives,
the modelling would typically point to lower energy prices as a result.
But evidence from the past
shows that humans are often wasteful when things are very cheap.
Unlike some modelling approaches,
we're not seeking to find the cheapest pathway to a desired outcome.
We're starting from the drivers in place today,
and want to recognise that there are very many different actors
with different interests and different tastes,
and it is by going into the details that one can sometimes uncover
plausible breaks in the trends ahead.
Scenarios are about looking for turning points.
The world energy system is heavily linked, and as a result,
changes in one part of the world can affect another,
particularly through the price mechanism.
For example, the German investment in solar panels
has lowered the price for everyone,
and breakthroughs in shale gas in America
have affected oil, gas and coal prices as well as trade flows worldwide.
A good story-teller does not challenge you directly,
but takes you on a narrative journey,
following the flow of events and compelling you to listen.
Stories make sense of how these events develop
and are memorable in a way that dry facts cannot be.
Scenarios succeed when managers respond to their message.
A compelling story connects with us on an emotional level...
...to make us believe in the Scenario.
As human beings, we are therefore more likely to act on its implications,
telling the story is therefore intrinsic to Scenarios.