okay serious talk right now crypto
currencies are absolutely in the toilet
the whole world is in a financial crisis
it's been going on for months bitcoin is
down 70 from its high ethereum is down
78 from its high it has not seen this
price since december 2020
the same with bitcoin december 2020.
it's absolutely ridiculous
and
let's get into it
welcome back to the channel everybody my
name's artie and this is the moving
average a show where we discuss
everything day trading to keep you
profitable on a consistent basis i've
lost so much money with these
cryptocurrencies it's not even funny
like when i look at what the balance was
in november
of last year versus what it is now i
mean it's ridiculous how much money i've
lost and you guys are probably in the
same boat i do not short crypto
currencies anymore i did it a few times
because we were on a bull run and i was
just like shorting the pullbacks
but now like i wish i would have sold it
all off and then just bought back now
which would have been awesome
let's look at the charts and determine
some price action things that i was
noticing and why i was wrong about it
being the bottom of bitcoin exactly why
i thought that which you probably saw in
the previous video and what my price
targets are now so as you can see here
uh ethereum is down 78.21
from its high and bitcoin is down
69.44 from its high
both are absolutely ridiculous numbers
but here's here's the main issue that i
see with
with typical price action
technical analysis so if you think about
you know this huge bull run that we had
and then as price goes down and creates
a uh or the descending triangle
usually in a typical market like
something that's more stable like
forex or indices or even stocks at that
when you see this type of price pattern
you are looking for a breakout on the
bottom side of it but what
cryptocurrencies usually do is break out
of the top side and have these crazy
bull runs now again we had that big down
slope and then we had again that
descending triangle which should have
broken out to the downside but instead
it broke up this gave us false hope and
then once it broke that trend line it
just started cascading down but then
again we got that triangle right here
and it did the typical thing that it was
supposed to do and just
wrecked through the bottom of it same
thing with bitcoin like we get these
descending triangles it breaks out to
the upside this is awesome like this is
a typical
you know good bull movement we had a
sick
0.5618 fibonacci retracement on this
first run and it came up exactly to the
negative 0.618 then looking at price
action we ended up having that like flag
pattern right that i that i talked about
in my price action videos we broke
through that and we've been cascading
down now the [ __ ] up thing is that
this is probably not the bottom
unfortunately
we do still have some room to go down
for example with that previous run up
right here where we went up retraced to
the fibonacci zone and went up to the
negative 618 if we were in such a strong
bear market you know we came down came
up to retest the 382 and are headed down
we are now at a negative three eight two
which
thinking about this right if we look at
this on a fibonacci level right it went
up retraced to the gold zone up to the
negative six one eight if we went down
retraced at the 382
and then hit the 382 this should be the
price point
but from what i'm seeing when you see
things like this lower lows being made
you want that also to be accompanied
with a divergence and that is not the
case right here we're looking at a low
and a lower low so this for me means
that the price is probably going to
continue down which sucks
so if you're looking to get in the
market right now it is way too volatile
there's chaos and blood in the streets
so don't do it but what i'm telling you
is that this probably isn't the bottom
and it's going to do some crazy crazy
wick down
to where it actually should go which is
right here at the negative 0.618 and i
think at that point
then we may have that divergence that
we're looking for on the higher time
frame that price point for bitcoin is
thirteen thousand two sixty four and i
really really really really don't want
that to happen the one thing keeping me
from thinking that's going to happen
is the previous all-time high before the
crazy crash where it was at about twenty
thousand dollars hopefully that level
holds and it goes up from here so that
we maintain that 382 retracement and the
negative 382 forward level and from this
point we go up without the divergence
the divergence isn't always an
indication or
a thing that absolutely happens every
single time because it doesn't
definitely makes me more confident in
any trade that i take so because price
action and fibonacci levels and
technical analysis can only get you so
far in cryptocurrencies you have to look
at the news and the markets and the
panicking and the everything the global
economy as a whole because
cryptocurrencies are seen as a risky
asset right so when the economy's in the
can
you pull your money out of risky assets
and so a lot of people are panic selling
getting out of these high risk assets
and moving their money into bonds and
whatever there's just so much price
manipulation happening in the markets
with the whole terra luna thing the
whole celsius thing
uh halting withdrawals on binance like
there's so many variables to this that
any type of technical analysis is
it's not a guarantee anymore it's not
even like a higher percentage chance you
just have to ride out the market in
whatever position you're going so i mean
if you're holding like me
you're fine because you just don't sell
unless you're in profit so
eventually it'll get there it's not like
these cryptocurrencies are going to go
down to zero like if you're thinking
about all of the cryptocurrencies as a
whole there's a gajillion freaking coins
that might possibly go to zero like
there's a high likelihood because a
majority of them are just pump and dump
scams people having startups get making
a bunch of money and then cashing out
and then going and buying islands in
different places
but with bitcoin and ethereum those are
different players like
i know a lot of people are freaking out
about bitcoin and ethereum dropping 70
percent but if you take a look at amazon
like the
most wealthy company the most
you know the hugest thing in the entire
world it's down 50
so
the whole market is crap right now and
the riskier assets like cryptocurrencies
are taking a harder hit it's best to
just be patient ride out this wave if
you're stressed about this then just
simply don't look at the charts and then
when it's back up and you hear the hype
in the streets of like oh man did you
see what crypto did then you go look at
it so
essentially right now don't trade don't
short don't long um wait for an absolute
break in structure like an absolute
absolute break in structure and for
bitcoin
that looks like
so you want a break of that a retest of
that and then a break of this level
anything above 48 000 and i know that's
like a really really great position to
go from 21 to 48
but if you're looking at any type of
movement to the bull side of the market
it's got to do something like this same
with ethereum you're waiting for
something like that and it needs to
break this level of 3 500. i'm sorry
about my assumption saying that that was
the the bottom but usually with these
triangles it breaks out to the top side
not the bottom side
so i mean i'm not right all the time
anyway
it is what it is i hope you guys got
some value out of this i hope it calmed
you down a little bit with your crypto
holdings if you're in a long position on
leverage and you're just like bleeding
out money it's it's probably going to
liquidate you odds are that it's going
to spike down to like some absurd level
like 800 or 750 dollars with ethereum
and you're just going to get liquidated
so
expect a massive massive like
dump candle
that may turn into a wick and then a
huge rejection at that point that's
that's that's the most likely scenario
in my head so i'm just sitting here
patiently waiting to see what happens
but the good news of all of this is that
my dad called me the other day and was
really freaking out about
cryptocurrencies so
that's probably like the best buy
indicator you can get thanks so much for
watching and we will see you in the next
video