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Russia is making big threats again, as another US weapons shipment to Ukraine is prepared,
boasting of “dire consequences” and threatening to draw the US into the war directly.
But something is different this time.
Putin seems scared - and analysts say this new weapon could be a game-changer.
Why are US Patriot missiles the most important weapon systems to be sent to Ukraine so far
in the Russia-Ukraine War?
The Patriot Missile, or the MIM-104 Patriot, is a surface-to-air missile system that has
quickly distinguished itself from the crowd.
Designed by defense contractor Raytheon and in service since its first incarnation in
1981, it’s become the primary missile system for the United States - and its allies.
It gets its name from an acronym - Phased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept on Target
- so it has more going for it than just a cool name.
While its missiles deliver a powerful punch, its secret weapon is its radar component.
And it made its debut with a splash.
When it first appeared on the scene, its purpose was to gain a competitive edge in a war that
most people hoped would never happen.
Then came the Gulf War, as Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait and was met by a unified opposition
from most of the world.
As Saddam bombarded his enemies with deadly Scud missiles, the Patriot system went into
action - and reportedly neutralized forty Scuds with its own missile barrage.
It was an unambiguous success.
Soon enough everyone wanted one.
And the US was happy to oblige.
Today, the US has provided Patriot Missile systems to many of its allies.
This includes Middle Eastern allies Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab
Emirates - as well as Israel, who has used them effectively in the ongoing war with Hamas.
South Korea and Japan have both been equipped with the missiles, as has Taiwan - likely
in preparation for a possible attack by China.
And in Europe, Germany, Spain, Sweden, Greece, Romania, and the Netherlands have all been
equipped with the system.
But then came one game-changer of a deal.
It was early 2022, and Vladimir Putin’s army was marching into Ukraine.
Many people were worried that he wouldn’t stop there - after all, he had repeatedly
said that NATO was not allowed to be on Russia’s borders, and if he annexed Ukraine, that would
put several countries including Poland in his crosshairs.
The US wanted to send a message, so on March 9th it was announced that the US would be
sending two Patriot missile systems to Poland to deter any possible invasion.
While it wasn’t explicitly said, everyone knew it was a warning to Russia - and one
that could have become a serious threat if Putin did conquer Ukraine.
Of course, as we all know, things turned out very differently.
And Ukraine asked - why can’t we join the party?
President Voldomyr Zelenskyy has not been shy about asking for more assistance - to
the point where he’s gotten into shouting matches with other world leaders who feel
he’s asking for too much.
And one of his top goals has been to get his hands on the Patriot Missile system, which
would make it easier to accurately intercept Russian missiles.
This could be a game-changer in the war - Russia’s attempts to invade and occupy Ukraine has
largely been met with failure, as the Russian army has been expelled from multiple cities.
The Russian Air Force isn’t equipped for precision missions, so the main tactic Putin
has been using is bombarding cities - essentially destroying the city of Mariupol and continuing
to bombard the capital of Kyiv.
Which means that neutering this tactic could be a game-changer.
This isn’t the first missile system Ukraine has asked for - they also requested an Iron
Dome defense system from Israel.
Israel declined, likely due to pressure from Russia - which has troops on its border with
Syria, a nation with close ties with Russia.
However, Israel maintains that the Iron Dome wouldn’t be able to protect Ukraine from
Russian missiles.
The system is designed to fend off low-altitude Hamas rockets which often come in large numbers,
its interceptor missiles aren’t equipped to battle high-altitude missiles from Russia.
But while that request didn’t work out, this next one did.
After months of requests, Washington decided to fulfill Ukraine’s requests for a Patriot
system in early December - which could finally give Ukraine the firepower it needs to foil
Russian attacks on civilian areas and defense infrastructure.
While this is a major boon to Ukraine’s defenses, it also hits Putin in another way
- it shows that for all his intimidation, NATO forces are not afraid to fortify Ukraine
and give it what it needs to defend itself.
The recent massive gains for Ukraine have changed the way people think about the conflict
around the world - making the possibility of Ukraine actually winning the war and regaining
all its territory - or even reclaiming the Crimean peninsula - look like a possibility.
And that means people want to be on the winning side.
But it won’t be easy for Ukraine to take on these new weapons.
The Patriot is a complex system that usually requires a crew of up to ninety trained soldiers
to operate.
The training required to operate this system takes more than two months - a big ask in
the middle of a war.
But it can operate in a pinch with a skeleton crew, and in the past NATO has been impressed
by how quickly Ukraine got the hang of weapons provided to them.
And if it works, it could be a game-changer in taking away one of Putin’s biggest threats
to Ukraine.
Because winter is coming - in fact, it’s here.
Ever since Putin’s army was pushed back from Kyiv and has since even been expelled
from many eastern areas, he’s focused on trying to break Ukraine’s will - and one
of his chief tactics has been targeting energy infrastructure.
Power plants and even nuclear plants have been bombed repeatedly, plunging much of Ukraine
into darkness and cutting off heating supplies.
As the temperature drops well below freezing, life for Ukrainian civilians doesn’t just
become uncomfortable, it becomes dangerous.
As military movements have slowed in the cold weather, Putin has kept up the bombardments,
hoping to inflict a slow death on Ukraine.
But that won’t work if Ukraine has the means to fight back.
The Patriot Missile system is ultimately a defensive one, so it’s not going to inflict
any casualties on the Russian forces or target their military infrastructure - something
Ukraine has had little problem with until now.
What it can do is intercept Russian missiles before they hit their target, potentially
sparing those essential power plants from a deadly blow.
Until now, most of Ukraine’s defenses have been made up of Cold War-era technology, usually
inherited from the Soviet Union after Ukraine gained its independence.
Ukraine has used it admirably, but there are limits to its capability that Putin has been
taking advantage of.
But he may have no answer for the Patriot.
While drones will remain a threat, as they’re too small to be intercepted by the Patriot
system, they also can’t do nearly as much damage as Russian missiles.
If the constant pounding of missiles could be stopped by the Patriot system, then it’s
likely Putin could once again find himself on the back foot - especially once the weather
changes and Ukraine becomes more aggressive in trying to take back the territory it lost
in the early days of the war.
Which probably explains why Putin isn’t all to happy with the US.
Putin has made many dramatic statements over the course of the war, including threatening
NATO directly and boasting of his willingness to use nuclear weapons.
As the conflict dragged on and it became clearer that he would not be sweeping to victory,
his belligerence only increased, and now he is once again boasting of “dire consequences”
over this new investment.
A military spokeswoman even said that providing this weapon system would mean that the United
States has essentially become a party to the war.
Is Putin about to escalate?
Well, he definitely wants people to think he is - hoping to bluff the US and NATO out
of this upgraded missile shipment.
But he’s talked a big game over the course of the entire war, and has rarely followed
suit.
If he was to directly attack US forces or target NATO in response to this delivery,
it would be seen as a declaration of war - one that would immediately be met by military
retaliation, and the odds are that his few remaining allies like China would immediately
take a step back and say “We’re not with him”.
The Generals under him would have to make a hard decision: follow Putin into a possible
World War 3 - or try for their own Operation Valkyrie.
But that doesn’t mean a response isn’t likely.
The Patriot isn’t going to be causing any Russian casualties, so Putin can’t realistically
claim it’s an escalation or a declaration of war - so what he’s most likely to do
is try to target the batteries instead of the infrastructure they’re protecting.
One effective bombing raid could neutralize the expensive equipment - but the problem
is that the Patriot is designed with this in mind.
They are highly accurate at shooting projectiles out of the air, and while Russia could try
to overwhelm the system, it could easily fail and humiliate Putin further.
And that could mean the future of the war looks very different.
If the Patriot proves effective at shooting down Russian missiles, there is no doubt that
Zelenskyy will ask for more batteries.
This would be a big ask, but one that would have a lot of support.
If most major cities and power infrastructures have a Patriot protecting them, Putin would
only have two options left on the table: target infrastructure with drones or prepare another
invasion force - neither of which has proven to be an effective long-term strategy.
That would shift the momentum firmly onto Ukraine’s side - which would make it harder
for Putin allies in the west to argue that supporting Ukraine is a poor investment.
And the Patriot is well-equipped to make life very difficult for Putin.
For one thing, the MIM-104 Patriot might be an expensive weapon - costing about a billion
dollars per unit - but that doesn’t mean it’s unwieldy.
It might actually be the most efficient and mobile elite weapon in the US arsenal.
It’s designed to be mounted on trucks, and its fast and accurate missiles aren’t just
capable of taking down cruise and ballistic missiles - it can engage aircraft as well.
With eight launchers per battery, each equipped with four interceptor missiles and a highly
accurate radar system, it can hit targets up to 80,000 feet away.
That means it could potentially hit missiles while they’re still being fired from Russia.
And that could give Russia a much bigger headache.
Russia’s biggest problem isn’t on the battlefield at the moment - it’s a supply
issue.
They’ve been embargoed by much of the world, prohibited from buying any non-essential goods.
Even China has been hesitant to arm Russia for the war on Ukraine, wanting to play both
sides against each other.
Pretty much its only willing supplier has been Iran, and they don’t have the capability
to restock Russia’s arsenal.
Which means that as Russia has been depleting its missile stores faster than anyone expected
without the possibility of restocking- and Patriot missiles start shooting them out of
the sky before they hit the target, it could essentially disarm Russia.
Which means this upcoming delivery could be a tipping point.
Russia has warned the US away from delivering Patriot missile systems to Ukraine - but the
US seems confident.
Russia has never looked weaker in this war, and its threats don’t carry as much weight
as they used to.
Which means Putin might be more desperate than ever before - and will try anything he
can to take Ukraine’s powerful new defense tool off the table.
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Watch “Why Are Russian Tanks Failing In Ukraine” for another look at Russia’s
problems in the war, or check out this video instead!