In 2009, Sri Lanka emerged from one of the most brutal civil wars of modern times.
But despite early signs that the country was on the road to recovery,
it has since descended into political chaos and financial ruin.
This came to a head in July 2022.
As the country's economy collapsed, protesters stormed government officers
forcing the president to flee the country.
As a result, Sri Lanka is now widely seen as a failing state.
But just how did all this happen? And can the country be saved?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
When we talk about failed and failing states, we tend to think of countries
where the key national institutions have broken down and the government such as it
is can barely provide basic services, such as security, education, or health care.
Obvious examples would include Afghanistan, Haiti, South Sudan, Somalia, Syria and Yemen.
In many of these cases, these are states with a long history of conflict, rebellion,
or deep-rooted political violence.
However, while conflict may often be the root cause of the failure,
state collapse can also be driven or compounded by other factors.
This includes economic difficulties.
Good examples would include Venezuela and Lebanon.
But they're certainly not alone.
Indeed, economically fragile countries are becoming an increasing worry around the world.
There are a growing number of states facing serious financial problems
with all the political and social effects that this can have.
One of the most interesting and important cases on the international stage is Sri Lanka.
Over the course of 2022, it came to international attention following a catastrophic economic
meltdown that saw it unable to import basic provisions, such as food, medicine, and fuel.
This in turn sparked mass protests that forced the country's president to resign
and seek refuge abroad.
But just how did all this happen?
The Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka
lies in South Asia, just off the southern tip of India.
At almost 66,000 square kilometres,
or 25,000 square miles, it's the 120th largest member of the United Nations.
Its population currently stands at around 22 million.
This is made up of several distinct ethno-religious groups.
The largest are the predominantly Buddhist
Sinhalese, representing 70 percent of the population.
Then there are the mostly Hindu Sri Lankan Tamils,
mainly located in the north and east of the country.
They represent around 11 percent of the population.
In addition, there's a significant and growing Muslim community,
now believe to be at around 10 percent.
Finally, there's also the Indian Tamils, who represent a little under 5 percent.
With a record of human settlement stretching back
tens of thousands of years, Sri Lanka has a long and fascinating history.
But while it's inevitably been heavily influenced by neighbouring India,
it's nevertheless developed its own distinct character.
As well as a strong Buddhist heritage, its strategic location in the middle of
the Indian Ocean has brought many other civilisations to its shores.
Having been an important hub for Arab, Chinese, and Malay traders,
the first Europeans to arrive were the Portuguese at the start of the 16th century.
While most of the island was conquered by the Dutch in the middle of the 17th century,
in 1796 Ceylon - as it was by then known - was seized by the British and over the next century
the island's economic and strategic value grew.
As well as coffee, tea, rubber, and coconut plantations,
it also became a significant naval base.
However, by the start of the 20th century nationalist sentiment was growing.
As the process of decolonisation began in earnest after the Second World War,
and having relinquished imperial India the previous year,
Britain formally granted Ceylon independence on the 4 February 1948.
However, the Queen would remain the country's head of state until 1972,
when it became a republic and was renamed Sri Lanka.
Following independence,
tension quickly grew between the majority Sinhalese and the Tamil minorities.
The first major step was legislation limiting the right of the Indian Tamils.
Brought to the country to work on the plantations, they were now denied citizenship
in the new state and many thousands were deported.
In the years that followed, the main Sinhalese parties
began to compete to prove their ethno-nationalist credentials.
In 1956, a law was passed making Sinhala the country's official language;
effectively depriving many Tamils of the chance to work in government.
This was followed by further restrictions in other areas, such as education.
As well as political and social discrimination, by the 1970s
the country was also increasingly strained by outbreaks of serious anti-Tamil violence.
In response, in 1976 Tamil militants formed the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.
Aiming to establish an independent Tamil homeland in the north of the country,
it began with relatively low-level attacks.
However, following another major outbreak of anti-Tamil violence in 1983, it launched a
full-scale insurgency over the next two and a half decades Sri Lanka would descend into
a violent civil war as the Tamil Tigers seized large parts of the north and east of the country.
Nevertheless, by the turn of the millennium the prospects for peace
were improving with talks beginning between the sides.
But this all changed in 2005 when Sri Lanka's prime minister
Mahinda Rajapaksa assumed the presidency.
Determined to end the war by force, he made himself defence minister and his
younger brother Gotabaya, a former army officer, became the secretary of the Defence Ministry.
By early 2009, Sri Lankan forces had made major progress and following an
exceptionally brutal final assault on their last remaining holdout
the Tamil Tigers were finally defeated in may that year.
The 25-year civil war a conflict that had cost the lives of anywhere up to 100 000 people, and had
seen many hundreds of thousands more displaced or forced to flee the country, was now over.
While the Rajapaksas faced strong condemnation,
and accusations of war crimes and even genocide for their conduct, at home they
became Sinhalese national heroes - a reputation that would only grow in the years that followed.
Focusing on post-war reconstruction,
the government now oversaw an impressive record of economic development.
Driven by growing tourism and massive infrastructure projects,
the country experienced annual average growth rates of more than seven or eight percent.
Meanwhile, the proportion of people living in extreme poverty
dropped from around a quarter to under 10 percent.
But while the World Bank was now hailing Sri Lanka as an economic success story,
serious problems were emerging.
Having ridden the wave of their military and economic success,
the Rajapaksas began to treat Sri Lanka as their personal fiefdom.
As well as overseeing an increasingly brutal regime marked by serious human rights abuses,
corruption and cronyism became rampant as members of the family
assumed various senior state positions.
On top of this, the massive construction works - which included major roads,
ports and airports - meant that the country became increasingly burdened by debt,
especially to China, which now became the largest single investor in the country.
But things seemingly began to change in 2015
when Mahinda Rajapaksa's hopes for an unprecedented third presidential term
were sunk when he suffered a shock defeat to a former friend and political ally.
But while some steps were then taken to try to address the growing economic problems,
these were hampered by a serious constitutional crisis in 2018.
However, the most significant blow to the country came on the 21 April 2019
when Islamist extremists affiliated with Islamic State attacked several churches and luxury hotels,
leaving more than 250 people dead and more than 500 injured.
This had a devastating effect on the country's tourism sector.
But the problems would only get worse.
In November 2019, Gotabaya Rajapaksa won the presidency and promptly appointed his older
brother, Mahinda, as prime minister and various other family members to ministerial positions.
Faced with growing economic problems, the new government
now cut taxes in the hope that this would promote growth.
But instead of driving recovery, it instead led to a massive drop in state revenues.
And then came the pandemic.
As well as obliterating any remaining tourism, it also led to a sharp drop in
foreign remittances - money sent back home by Sri Lankans working abroad.
By 2021, the economic crisis was rapidly snowballing.
With the government increasingly struggling to repay its foreign debts,
which now amounted to over 51 billion US dollars, and having already been forced
to turn over a port to Chinese control, it resorted to ever more desperate measures.
To save money, these would make the situation even worse.
For instance, a decision to encourage organic farming to save on foreign
fertilisers and pesticides, merely led to crop failures and food shortages.
This in turn fed inflation.
At the same time, while it was obvious that Sri Lanka was increasingly struggling to meet
its debt repayments, the government refused to discuss any restructuring of its loans
or accept help from the International Monetary Fund.
In April 2022, Sri Lanka finally reached crisis point.
As the country struggled to buy basic provisions,
such as fuel, medicines and food, massive public protests erupted.
At the same time, the government was now forced to admit that it couldn't
meet its debt repayments - the first default in its history.
Facing huge internal and external pressures, Mahinda Rajapaksa stood down as premier and was
promptly replaced by the veteran prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe - a highly unpopular choice.
Although Wickremesinghe had been a long-standing political opponent of the Rajapaksas, he was known
to have maintained close personal relations with the family and there have long been accusation
that he protected them from corruption charges when he previously served as prime minister.
But while the new government now introduced measures to try to address the economic problems,
including an emergency tax rise, the financial crisis continued.
This all came to a head when, at the start of July, protesters stormed government buildings,
including the presidential residence and the home of the new prime minister.
While there were fears that the Rajapaksa family
would try to put the country under military rule, the strength of anger seemed too much.
On 9 July, Gotabaya Rajapaksa resigned as president and fled the country.
Having assumed the role of acting president on 20 July 2022,
Wickremesinghe, despite his unpopularity, was formally elected by the parliament
to serve out the rest of the presidential term and has now been sworn into office.
So, can Sri Lanka be saved?
In truth, it's difficult to say.
Despite the political changeover, the country still faces a wide range of extremely serious
short, medium, and long-term problems.
While the Rajapaksa dynasty
may now be gone - at least for the moment - the new president is far from popular.
On top of this, many of the deepest structural problems,
such as corruption and political nepotism, remain.
Meanwhile, there must surely be some concern
that the current situation could yet feed further social tensions.
But, above all, Sri Lanka still faces huge debts.
This will require negotiations with international lenders and financial institutions.
In this sense, many hard economic and political decisions will need
to be taken in the period ahead - and will have to be taken with little public support.
This all raises very real questions about whether the new president will in fact
be able to turn the situation around.
Sri Lanka, a failing state, may yet become a failed state.
I hope you found that useful.
If so, here are some more videos on failed and failing states that you might find interesting.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.