We are expecting right across the south eastern quadrant
of the state particularly, temperatures to be right up into the mid 40s,
low to mid 40s.
That hot air is coming out of the centre of Australia.
It's going to be particularly dry.
So humidities are going to be very low.
We're going to see the westerly winds, northerly winds turning westerly winds
throughout the morning before and throughout most of the day
before we see a fairly volatile southerly change moving up the coast sometime
late this afternoon and getting to places like Sydney
not till late tonight.
We are expecting to see those temperatures really start to set in and the wind
start to set in over the next few hours, right across right across the ranges
and down to the south east, between 8am and 11am is where we're expecting
to see temperatures really start to climb into those high 30s,
early 40s and be accompanied with the hot, dry winds coming out of the west.
At this stage, the southerly change through that part of the state starting right down
in the south east corner of the state,
is not expected to start moving or developing until something like
3pm or 5pm this afternoon.
It's a little bit fluid at this stage.
And we're working very closely with the bureau today as we monitor
and track and forecast its spread.
But whatever the case, we are going to have a long day dominated
by hot temperatures, dry atmosphere and winds coming out of the ranges.
We're talking 40, 50, gusting 60 to 70 kilometres an hour from the western, north
west.
And then suddenly change that's coming through, particularly along
the coastal strip where a lot of these fires and these at risk communities are.
We're expecting those southerly strength to be somewhere up around 80 kilometres
an hour with their gusting.
So it's going to make for a very dangerous day.
It's going to make for very volatile fire grounds, very dangerous fire grounds
and all that is in the path of those fires.
Today is a very challenging day for all of us.
And we're in a period of the declaration of a state of disaster that's based on
the fires that we've got across the state, but primarily in the north east and east Gippsland.
We have seen wind gusts up to 67 kilometres an hour already today at the Mount Hotham.
And it's predicted when the change comes through there, we'll see gusts
up to 80 kilometres an hour.
So we've got a long way to go today.
We know that with the south west change that comes through,
it will push some of that that smoke away from the coastal areas of Gippsland.
Once those fires become exposed to the sun, there is definitely the potential
for some elevated fire activity there.
In those alpine areas, there is the potential, again,
for those columns, the pyro cumulus to develop
where we can see those those columns develop their own weather
so they can throw out their own lightning.
So there's a potential for additional fires as a result of those particular columns.
Similarly in the north east.
So it's still a challenging day for us.
We've got significant forest fire management, Victoria Country Fire Authority resources,
the MFA coming in to backfill the CFA station so they can free up
more career firefighters.
So it's a huge effort at the moment in terms of a lot of resources
working so so hard to keep our community safe.
So we still have those dynamic and dangerous fire conditions,
the low humidity, the strong winds.
And what underpins all of that is that the state is tinder dry.
It is really, really dry at the moment.