- The Australian workplace is changing.
Many of the jobs that are around today
didn't exist a decade ago, and the same
will be true in decades to come.
In such a rapidly changing environment,
how can workers make sure they
have the right skills to succeed?
Before we answer that question, let's have a look at some
of the factors driving changes in the workplace today.
Factors like demographic change tend
to work slowly over decades, rather than years.
Australia's population is getting older,
and because of that, we're seeing increased demand
for nursing and aged care.
Factors like technological change can be quite fast
and be quite disruptive, and not only
to individual jobs, but to entire industries.
Robotics enables production lines to be automated,
while spreadsheets and other sorts
of IT allow office processes to be automated.
Some jobs will be replaced, but technology
can also create increased demand for new skills.
There's now demand for occupations like IT security,
data analytics, that just didn't exist 20 years ago.
So, to help think about what skills might be demanded
in the future, it's useful to look at
what people are doing in the economy today,
and how that's changed over time.
Let's start with routine jobs.
As the name suggests, routine jobs are more repetitive.
A simple example of this is production line work.
Data processing and office administration
are also considered to be routine jobs.
On the other hand, non-routine jobs require
more human interaction and judgement because people
in these jobs face different situations every day.
Most jobs in the health care and social assistance sector
are non-routine, and there has been strong employment growth
in this sector over the past 15 years or so.
Most professional jobs, such as those in architecture
or engineering, as well as jobs in education
are also in non-routine categories.
It's also useful to understand
whether jobs are manual or cognitive.
Manual occupations tend to rely on physical labour
and are often in industries like construction,
manufacturing or mining.
Workers in cognitive jobs are likely
to have post-school qualifications
and use their expertise and knowledge to get the job done.
So, think of lawyers, doctors and economists.
So, now we know a little bit more
about the different types of jobs that exist today,
how has their importance changed over time?
When you look at the data, over the past 10 years
there's been relatively little growth in the number
of routine jobs compared with non-routine jobs.
This is probably not surprising because these are the jobs
that are going to be most easily automated.
Interestingly, we've also seen relatively little growth
in cognitive jobs that are routine in nature.
Jobs like data entry and bookkeeping
are being replaced with new technical solutions,
or another possibility is that they're being
moved offshore where labour is cheaper.
But in contrast, we've seen quite strong growth
in non-routine jobs.
And it's here that we see the most potential for the future.
They typically require university qualifications
and they require people to have a greater range
of skills that are harder to automate,
such as social intelligence and creativity.
So, while we don't know what roles will be demanded
in the future, the data allow us to predict
some of the skills that are going to be quite highly valued.
Some things like learning how to learn,
problem solving skills, and having core skills
in maths and sciences are going to help employees adapt
to future changes in technology.
And don't forget, there's going to be a whole range
of new jobs that we don't even have a title for yet.
As an economist at the Reserve Bank,
I rely on a range of skills every day.
Some of these skills come from what I learned at university.
Other skills I've learned on the job.
In particular, I use detailed analysis of complex,
and often ambiguous, information to help
form a better understanding of how the economy works
and what the workforce looks like.
I'm constantly asking questions and trying
to solve puzzles presented by the data
so that I can provide better advice.
I also use social skills to communicate my views
and contribute to better policy.
These skills are also core to my role as the head
of a department with a staff of almost 80 people.
These types of skills are not easily replicated
by computers or replaced by offshore resources,
and they're going to be helpful
for facing the changes that lie ahead.
At the Reserve Bank of Australia, we're committed
to using research to shape better policy.
And a part of this is helping people understand
the changing nature of the economy
and the changing nature of the Australian workforce
so they can equip themselves with the right skills.
Having a workforce that has the right skills
should underpin productivity growth
and therefore, the economic prosperity
of the Australian people into the future.