Scotland, Catalonia, Kosovo, Taiwan, Somaliland, Palestine, Western Sahara.
These are all fairly familiar names to anyone who watches the news.
But what exactly are they about?
In this two-part video, I'm going to take a quick tour of 20 of the most prominent independence movements,
campaigns and disputes around the world.
I'll briefly outline the background to each case and explain why they're each so significant.
[MUSIC]
Hello. My name is James Ker-Lindsay.
Welcome to 'Independent Thinking'.
A channel dedicated to international relations, independence, statehood and the origins of countries.
Around the world there are numerous groups vying for independence.
In many cases, these are relatively small, fringe movements.
However, sometimes they represent many hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people.
But for all the attention these cases attract in the media,
very often the background history and underlying issues at stake are poorly understood.
To this end, I thought it might be useful to take a brief look at some of the most prominent independence
campaigns and movements around the world and sketch out how they emerged, what they're about,
where things currently stand and where they might be going.
In putting the list together, I've drawn on three different groups.
First up are the de facto states
- territories that have the attributes of statehood, but are either wholly unrecognized
or enjoy only partial recognition on the world stage.
Secondly, I've included territories that have a reasonable chance of obtaining independence if they want it.
This includes territories that are formally engaged in independence processes or at least have the realistic
possibility of being able to hold a referendum on statehood at some point in the foreseeable
- or at least not unforeseeable - future.
Finally, I've included a few wild card entries; territories that tend to attract a lot of international attention
even though their chances of actually securing independence may in fact be rather limited.
Again, this is a two-part video and I'll be covering 10 cases in this first video and another 10 in my second.
So, what are my first 10 choices?
I've chosen to start off close to home with what I believe is one of the most likely candidates to become a fully
independent country within the next decade: Scotland.
For many centuries, Scotland existed as an independent kingdom until, at the start of the 17th century,
the crowns of Scotland and England were united.
Then, a little over a century later, in 1707, the two countries formed a political union,
creating the Kingdom of Great Britain.
Despite this, Scotland retained many of its distinct elements of its identity, including its own legal system.
In the late 1990s, Scotland was granted a greater degree of autonomy
and a Scottish Parliament was re-established.
This in turn led to increasing calls for independence.
In September 2014, following an agreement with the British Government, a referendum was held.
By 55.3% to 44.7% on an 84.6% turnout, voters chose to remain in the Union.
Although many thought that this would settle the matter for a generation, calls for independence have continued.
This has largely been driven by the 2016 referendum on leaving the European Union.
While Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, the leave vote in the far more populous England won.
Scotland also argues that its voice has been ignored in the subsequent Brexit negotiations.
As a result, the Scottish Government has announced its intention
to hold another independence referendum in 2021.
However, the British Government insisted it won't permit another referendum within the lifetime
of the current British Parliament, which is expected to run until 2024.
This obviously paves the way for what could be a very serious constitutional showdown.
From there we head down to North Africa and Western Sahara.
In many ways, this is a territory that under other conditions would already be an independent state
and a full member of the United Nations.
Colonized by Spain in the 19th century,
in the 1960s the United Nations called for it to be able to exercise its right to self-determination.
However, this was strongly opposed by neighboring Morocco and Mauritania,
both of which laid claim to parts of the territory
They referred the case to the International Court of Justice,
which found that neither in fact had a historical claim to Western Sahara.
In early 1976, Spain withdrew from the territory.
And on 27 February 1976, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) was proclaimed.
However, sovereign statehood was thwarted by Morocco and Mauritania, which occupied the territory.
Although Mauritania departed a few years later,
to this day Morocco remains in control of two-thirds of Western Sahara;
despite the fact that it's claimed that territory has not been officially recognized internationally.
Meanwhile, a Western Saharan government-in-exile operates out of neighboring Algeria.
According to a UN brokered agreement, the territory is meant to hold a referendum on its future.
However, this has been continually opposed by Morocco
and it's unclear when the vote will be able to take place - if at all.
From there, we go to the Balkans and one of the most prominent cases
of contested statehood in international politics: Kosovo.
Formerly an autonomous province of Serbia within the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia,
the largely Albanian-inhabited territory was stripped of its autonomy in 1989.
In 1991, an unofficial referendum was organized that showed overwhelming support for independence.
However, this went all but ignored internationally.
In the mid-1990s, Kosovo Albanians launched a guerrilla campaign to press for independence.
And in 1999, after a major escalation of tensions between the sides, NATO intervened.
Following a 78-day bombing campaig, Kosovo was placed under UN administration
pending a decision on its final status.
UN-mediated talks on the future of Kosovo began in 2006.
And while Serbia offered extensive autonomy, Kosovo demanded nothing short of independence.
And on 17 February 2008, following two years of unsuccessful negotiations,
Kosovo unilaterally declared independence.
Although it's since been recognized by the United States, Britain and almost a hundred other countries,
its statehood has been rejected by Russia and China.
As a result, it is unable to join the United Nations.
In the meantime, the European Union has led a dialogue process between Serbia and Kosovo
with the aim of normalizing relations between them.
Ultimately, there's no prospect that Kosovo will be reintegrated back into Serbia
and it's expected that Serbia will in fact eventually recognize Kosovo
- even if only to secure membership of the European Union.
The question therefore is what the price of that recognition will be?
From there, it's a quick hop across the Balkan Peninsula
and our first visit to the former Soviet Union: Transnistria.
In medieval times, the Romanian Principality of Moldova was an Ottoman vassal state.
However, in 1812 the eastern part was handed over to Russia.
In 1918, following the Russian Revolution,
Moldova declared independence and united with neighboring Romania.
This led to the establishment of an alternative Soviet Moldovan administration
on the east bank of the Dniester River.
When Moldova was conquered by Russian forces during the Second World War,
these two parts were united to form the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic
- one of the 15 constituent republics of the USSR.
As the Soviet Union weakened, the eastern part of the republic, Transnistria,
sought to become a separate republic within the USSR.
When this option became obsolete with the collapse of the Soviet Union, it instead proclaimed independence.
In March 1992, the government of the newly independent Republic of Moldova
attempted to take back Transnistria.
However, this was thwarted by Russian forces on the territory.
Today, Transnistria exists as a de facto state.
But, unlike other cases where Russia has intervened, it remains wholly unrecognized on the world stage.
Indeed, even Moscow hasn't recognized it.
Looking ahead, given that peace talks are focused clearly on reunification,
most observers believe that it will eventually be reunited with Moldova.
Indeed, in many ways, it's perhaps the most likely of all the de facto states on this list to be eventually resolved
by the territory's reintegration into the parent state.
Next, we head down to the Mediterranean and another de facto state: Northern Cyprus.
After the Republic of Cyprus became independent, in 1960, following 80 years of British colonial rule,
relations between the island's Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities,
representing 78 and 18 per cent of the population respectively, quickly broke down.
Following the outbreak of fighting between the communities in December 1963,
a UN peacekeeping and peacemaking mission was established.
In 1974, the military government in Greece tried to annex the island, prompting Turkey to invade
and occupy the northern third of Cyprus.
In 1977, the Greek and Turkish Cypriots agreed that reunification should be based on a federal solution.
Despite this, in November 1983, the Turkish Cypriots unilaterally declared independence.
While the Turkish Cypriot state was immediately recognized by Turkey,
the move was condemned by the UN Security Council, which passed Resolution 541
calling on countries not to recognize the so-called 'Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus'.
Despite this, UN efforts to reunite the island have continued.
In 2004, a settlement plan was rejected by the Greek Cypriots.
Meanwhile, another major UN-led settlement effort collapsed in 2017.
Although both sides officially remain committed to reunification,
the prospects of this actually happening appear to diminish with every passing year.
From there we move over to the Caucasus and Nagorno-Karabakh.
The region became part of the Russian Empire at the start of the 19th century.
However, following the Russian Revolution in October 1917,
it was awarded to the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic as an autonomous region
- a decision opposed by the neighbouring Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic
and by the Armenian inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh.
In September 1991, as the Soviet Union collapsed, Nagorno-Karabakh provisionally declared independence.
In response, the Azerbaijani Government rescinded its autonomy
and launched a military assault to end the rebellion
In January 1992, following a referendum,
it formally declared independence as the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.
Stepping up its military offensive, Azerbaijan recaptured much of the region.
However, the following year, Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh forces not only retook the land that was lost,
they also captured a large swathe of territory around Nagorno-Karabakh,
which still remains occupied by Armenia to this day.
Despite this, Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed a set of principles to resolve the conflict.
These include returning territory to Azerbaijani control,
opening a land corridor between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia,
and determining the final legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh through a legally binding expression of will.
To date, however , the conflict remains unresolved.
More to the point Nagorno-Karabakh remains wholly unrecognized on the world stage.
Indeed, it isn't even formally recognized by Armenia; not least of all because Azerbaijan's territorial integrity
has repeatedly been reaffirmed by the UN Security Council.
In the meantime, there's a genuine worry internationally that the dispute may well lead to war,
not least of all because Armenia and Azerbaijan have been caught up in an arms race
and have also occasionally engaged in serious fighting, most recently in July 2020.
Next, we head down and across the Arabian Peninsula to South Yemen.
Having effectively been a British colonial holding from the mid-19th century,
the territory became independent in 1967 as the People's Republic of Southern Yemen.
From the start, it was expected that it would eventually unite with the neighboring Yemen Arab Republic,
which had been an independent state since 1918.
However, the unification process proved difficult;
not least of all because the South fell to communist forces in 1969.
Despite efforts to broker unification, no progress was made until the late 1980s,
when a series of factors, including the gradual weakening of the Soviet Union,
which supported South Yemen, and economic problems,
made a merger desirable for the leaders of both countries.
On 22 May 1990, North and South Yemen, as they had become more generally known,
formally ceased to exist and the new Republic of Yemen was created.
However, from the start , it was an unhappy union;
not least of all because the two parts of the country had had very different histories.
In 1994, the South unilaterally declared independence.
However, this went unrecognized by the international community and the country's central government
managed to reimpose its rule quickly.
In 2015, Yemen was again plunged into conflict.
Although this wasn't directly related to the South's claim to statehood,
the pro-independence Southern Transitional Council has managed to take control of parts of the south.
Looking ahead, it will hope to be able to use this as a basis to press for a return to independent sovereign
statehood on the international stage at some point in the future.
From the Middle East, we now make a very long jump all the way across to East Asia and Taiwan.
This is in fact one of the more unusual cases on the list as it isn't formally an independence dispute
- at least, not at the moment.
Rather, it is actually a unique case of a contested government.
In the late 1940s, following a civil war on mainland China, Communist forces defeated the nationalist
Government of China, which was forced to flee the mainland and set up on the island of Taiwan,
off the east coast of China.
From there, it continued to claim sovereignty over the entire country of China
and claimed to be the country's legitimate government.
However, in the years that followed, many countries switched their support from the Republic of China
- Taiwan - to the People's Republic of China.
In late 1971, Taiwan was stripped of its UN membership.
Today, just 14 countries recognise Taiwan.
However, many other countries
- including the United States, Britain, Japan and many members of the European Union -
maintain close economic and political relations with Taiwan.
That said, while the dispute is officially about a claim to be the Government of China,
Taiwan effectively operates as an independent country and is widely accepted as such, even unofficially,
even though it hasn't actually declared independence.
More to the point, it's clear that the long-term aim of many on the island is in fact sovereign statehood.
However, for its part, Beijing has said that it would be prepared to go as far as to use military force
in the event that Taiwan does in fact declare independence.
From there it's over to South East Asia and Bougainville.
In many ways, this is potentially a very strong contender to be the next - 194th - member of the United Nations.
Located off the eastern coast of Papua New Guinea and next to the Solomon Islands,
in the late 1980s a conflict erupted on the island.
This lasted for a decade until a peace agreement was reached in 1998.
As well as granting the island autonomy, the deal also allowed for a referendum on independence.
This vote eventually took place in late 2019.
Held under international supervision, 98.3% voted for independence
as opposed to just 1.7% who favored the other alternative on offer, greater autonomy.
However, while negotiations on next steps have started, the Government of Papua New Guinea
has yet to formally accept the result.
Worryingly, there have even been some signals that it might yet refuse to accept Bougainville's independence
and will instead look to offer greater autonomy instead.
This would risk plunging the region back into conflict.
It also raises the prospect of a unilateral declaration of independence.
And even if the Government of Papua New Guinea does decide to respect the result,
at the moment the time frame for statehood is unclear.
Finally, at least for this first part, we end with a short hop to New Caledonia.
In many ways, this is the most topical of all the entries on the list
as it's in fact due to hold a referendum on independence in October 2020.
First conquered by France in 1853,
in 1945 New Caledonia was placed by the UN on the list of non-self-governing territories;
the UN's list of colonies.
Following a growth of European settlement in the 1960s and 70s, the Melanesian Kanak community,
which currently represents about 40 percent of the population,
established a pro-independence movement.
This led to violent clashes, including a serious incident in 1988.
In 1998, an agreement was reached between the various parties.
New Caledonia gained greater autonomy.
At the same time, it was also agreed that the territory would be permitted to hold
up to three referendums on independence before 2022.
The first of these took place in November 2018.
However, voters rejected statehood by 56.4% to 43.6%, on an 81% turnout.
Following on from this, the second of these votes is due to take place on 4 October 2020.
If this also proves unsuccessful, there's the option for a third vote on the matter, either in 2021 or 2022.
In the event that independence is rejected for a third time, under the terms of the Accord
the various parties are expected to consider the situation.
This is definitely a case of 'watch this space'.
So, there we have it.
A brief overview of my first 10 choices:
Scotland, Western Sahara, Kosovo, Transnistria, Northern Cyprus, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Yemen,
Taiwan, Bougainville and New Caledonia.
Do let me know what you think about these cases in the comments below.
But, remember, this is far from a final list, so don't forget to join me in the next video for my next 10 choices.
In the meantime, if you haven't already,
don't forget to Subscribe and turn on the notifications to be alerted to forthcoming videos.
I'll also put a link to the second part in the description and in the pinned comments below.
Thanks and see you in the next video.