SUPER BOWL.
DON'T MISS A MOMENT OF IT, WE
WILL KICK IT OFF WITH THE TOP
STORY, MARKETS POINTING TO
ANOTHER SELLOFF AT THE OPENING
OF TRADING THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
JOB'S REPORT OUT AT 8:30 A.M.,
TAKE A LOOK AT FUTURES THIS
MORNING?
A. WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER
SELLOFF BETTER THAN 260 POINTS,
TEN-YEAR TREASURY HOOVERS AROUND
2.8%, JUST AS LAST ATLANTIC
FEDERAL RESERVE COMES OUT WITH
GDP GROWTH AT 5.4%, MUCH HIGHER
THAN PEOPLE EXPECTED.
WE WILL SEE A 5.4% NUMBER NEXT
QUARTER ACCORDING TO ATLANTA
FED.
THAT WOULD BE THE STRONGEST
SINCE THURSDAY QUARTER IN 2003.
THE ECONOMY GOT CLOSE REACHING
5.2% IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF
2014.
JOINING US RIGHT NOW TO TALK ALL
>> HAPPY GROUND HOG DAY.
MARIA: HAPPY GROUND HOG DAY.
>> I WANT TO START WITH THE FED
NUMBER.
OUR FIRST QUARTER ESTIMATE IS 4
AND A HALF PERCENT AND CONSENSUS
IS AROUND 2 AND A HALF PERCENT.
PEOPLE THOUGHT WE WERE LUNATICS
UNTIL YOU JUST ANNOUNCED A
MINUTE AGO.
[LAUGHTER]
>> THIS IS WHY THE FIRST QUARTER
WILL BE SO STRONG, THE FORTY
QUARTER NUMBER THAT WAS FLASHED
2.6% WAS TWO OFFS, THE IMPORT
NUMBER SURGED 14% DESPITE THE
WEAKNESS IN THE DOLLAR.
THAT'S NOT CONSISTENT.
FROM $39 BILLION IN THE THIRD
QUARTER TO ONLY $9 BILLION IN
THE THIRD QUARTER DESPITE THE
STRONGEST CHRISTMAS IN SIX YEARS
THAT DIDN'T MAKE ANY SENSE THAT
TOOK 70 BASIS POINTS OUT OF
GROWTH.
WE THINK THAT EITHER THOSE
NUMBERS ARE GOING TO BE REVISED
UP OR WE WILL GET THE GROWTH
BACK IN THE FIRST QUARTER,
MARIA: IS THAT NO LONGER
POSSIBLE?
>> THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO GO HAND
AND GLOVE.
>> THE CONSUMER IS THE ONE PART
OF THE FOURTH QUARTER GDP NUMBER
THAT WAS STRONG.
YOU SAW CONSUMPTION GO UP 3.8%.
NET WORTH OF INDIVIDUALS AS A
PERCENT OR RATIO TO DISPOSABLE
1960's.
DAGEN: BUSINESS NONRESIDENTIAL
RECESSION IN 2009, IT WAS UP
6.8% IN THE FOURTH QUARTER.
AGAIN, THE BUSINESSES ARE
STEPPING UP AND BEGINNING TO
SPEND AND YOU WILL ONLY HAVE A
TAIL WIND GOING INTO THE NEW
YEAR WITH THE TAX REFORM, BUT I
THINK THAT IF YOU DO START, YOU
HAVE TO WATCH WHAT GOES ON THE
BOND MARKET BECAUSE, AGAIN, WITH
HIGHER RATES, HIGHER LONG-TERM
RATES, THAT IS WHAT YOU USE IN
YOUR CALCULATION AND WHAT STOCKS
BE THAT YOU HAVE MONEY COMING
OUT OF THE MONDAY MARKET FOR
>> WE ARE NOT THERE YET.
THE ECONOMY IS GROWING STRONGLY,
CORPORATE EARNINGS ARE HAVING
VERY GOOD FOURTH QUARTER, THE
BEST FOURTH-QUARTER PACE IN
YEARS.
SO IT IS NOT --
MARIA: FEAR OF MISSING OUT.
>> IT IS NOT FOMO, UNDERLYING
REASONS.
MARIA: PART OF IT IS THE
TECHNOLOGY SECTOR.
APPLE, ALPHABET, APPLE BEAT
EXPECTATIONS, EARNINGS REVENUE.
DISAPPOINTING OUTLOOK.
THAT'S REALLY WHAT IS IMPORTANT.
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE QUARTER.
AMAZON POSTING THE LARGEST
PROFIT IN THE HISTORY.
LOOK AT THE NUMBERS.
BLASTING PAST WALL STREET
ESTIMATES.
THERE WAS ALPHABET, BEAT ON
REVENUE.
THEY DID TALK ABOUT STRONG
ADVERTISING GROWTH.
PHIL, GIVE US YOUR REACTION ON
>> YOU HAVE BROAD-BASE STRENGTH,
A NUMBER OF STARS, TECHNOLOGY
HEALTH CARE, MATERIALS,
INDUSTRIALS, FINANCIAL SERVICE
COMPANIES, ENERGY COMPANIES, YOU
ARE SEEING GOOD NUMBERS ACROSS
THE BOARD AND I THINK THAT'S
GOING TO BE REFLECTED IN THE
LABOR MARKET DATA WE SEE THIS
TECHNOLOGY SECTOR, THOUGH, FOR
THE MARKET TO CONTINUE HIGHER
WITH THE LEADER IN 2017, A
LEADER NOW, 20% OF THE GAINS WE
HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR HAVE BEEN
LED BY FOUR COMPANIES, GOOGLE,
AMAZON, NETFLIX AND MICROSOFT?
>> THE REASON THEY ARE DOING
WELL IS BECAUSE GROWTH IS WELL
ABOVE THE GROWTH OF THE BROAD
MARKET.
THE BIGGER MOVE IN TECHNOLOGY, I
THINK, IS BECAUSE OF THE TAX
REFORM SPECIFICALLY THE CAP X
PORTION OF THAT, WE THINK
THERE'S GOING TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT TECHNOLOGY UPGRADE
CYCLE, CHIP SOFTWARE, ET CETERA,
WHAT COMPANIES ARE GOING TO DO
TO REBUILD THEIR TECHNOLOGY
PLATFORMS THE FIRST TIME IN A
REALLY LONG TIME.
MARIA: PAY UP FOR THAT.
AMAZON.
APPLE REPORTED STRONG EARNINGS
BECAUSE THEY ARE CHARGE LG MORE
FOR A PRODUCT THAT'S BEEN AROUND
FOR A LONG TIME.
AMAZON IS MAKING MORE MONEY
BECAUSE THEY ARE MAKING THE
BIGGEST INROADS, BIG GROWTH
BUSINESS, IS THERE A
FUNDAMENTALLY BIG NARRATIVE
BETWEEN THE TWO COMPANIES AND
YOU WILL SEE THEM DIVERGE OVER
TIME?
>> THEY SORT OF GUIDED DOWN ON
THE VOLUMES.
THEY THINK THEY WILL DO IN APPLE
10.
AMAZON SEEMS TO BE CRACKING.
S, HIGHER LONG-TERM RATES, THAT
IS WHAT YOU USE IN YOUR
CALCULATION AND WHAT STOCKS ARE
WORTH, RIGHT, AND YOU COULD --
OR THE OPPOSITE THEORY WOULD BE
THAT YOU HAVE MONEY COMING OUT
OF THE MONDAY MARKET FOR FEAR OF
BEAR MARKET AND GOING INTO THE
GO?
>> WE ARE NOT THERE YET.
THE ECONOMY IS GROWING STRONGLY,
CORPORATE EARNINGS ARE HAVING
VERY GOOD FOURTH QUARTER, THE
BEST FOURTH-
QUARTER PACE IN
YEARS.
SO IT IS NOT --
MARIA: FEAR OF MISSING OUT.
>> IT IS NOT FOMO, UNDERLYING
REASONS.
MARIA: PART OF IT IS THE
TECHNOLOGY SECTOR.
APPLE, ALPHABET, APPLE BEAT
EXPECTATIONS, EARNINGS REVENUE.
AMAZON POSTING THE LARGEST
BLASTING PAST WALL STREET