Operation Unthinkable was a code-name of two related plans of a conflict between the Western
Allies and the Soviet Union.
Both were ordered by British Prime Minister Winston Churchill in 1945 and developed by
the British Armed Forces' Joint Planning Staff at the end of World War II in Europe.
The first of the two assumed a surprise attack on the Soviet forces stationed in Germany
in order to "impose the will of the Western Allies" on the Soviets and force Joseph Stalin
to honour the agreements in regards to the future of Central Europe.
When the odds were judged "fanciful", the original plan was abandoned.
The code-name was used instead for a defensive scenario, in which the British were to defend
against a Soviet drive towards the North Sea and the Atlantic following the withdrawal
of the American forces from the continent.
The study became the first of Cold War-era contingency plans for war with the Soviet
Union.
Both plans were highly secret at the time of their creation and it was not until 1998
that they were made public.
Offensive operations The initial primary goal of the operation
was declared as follows: "to impose upon Russia the will of the United States and the British
Empire.
Even though 'the will' of these two countries may be defined as no more than a square deal
for Poland, that does not necessarily limit the military commitment".
The word "Russia" is used heavily throughout the document, as during the Imperial period
the term was used as pars pro toto for the Russian Empire, with which the USSR was almost
coterminous.
The Chiefs of Staff were concerned that given the enormous size of Soviet forces deployed
in Europe at the end of the war, and the perception that the Soviet leader Joseph Stalin was unreliable,
there existed a Soviet threat to Western Europe.
The Soviet numerical superiority was roughly 4:1 in men and 2:1 in tanks at the end of
hostilities in Europe.
The Soviet Union had yet to launch its attack on Japanese forces, and so one assumption
in the report was that the Soviet Union would instead ally with Japan if the Western Allies
commenced hostilities.
The hypothetical date for the start of the Allied invasion of Soviet-held Europe was
scheduled for 1 July 1945.
The plan assumed a surprise attack by up to 47 British and American divisions in the area
of Dresden, in the middle of Soviet lines.
This represented almost a half of roughly 100 divisions available to the British, American
and Canadian headquarters at that time.
The plan was taken by the British Chiefs of Staff Committee as militarily unfeasible due
to a three-to-one superiority of Soviet land forces in Europe and the Middle East, where
the conflict was projected to take place.
The majority of any offensive operation would have been undertaken by American and British
forces, as well as Polish forces and up to 100,000 German Wehrmacht soldiers.
Any quick success would be due to surprise alone.
If a quick success could not be obtained before the onset of winter, the assessment was that
the Allies would be committed to a protracted total war.
In the report of 22 May 1945, an offensive operation was deemed "hazardous".
Defensive operations In response to an instruction by Churchill
of 10 June 1945 a follow up report was written concerning "what measures would be required
to ensure the security of the British Isles in the event of war with Russia in the near
future".
United States forces were relocating to the Pacific Theatre to prepare for the invasion
of Japan, and Churchill was concerned that this reduction in supporting forces would
leave the Soviets in a strong position to take offensive action in Western Europe.
The report concluded that if the United States focused on the Pacific theatre, Great Britain's
odds "would become fanciful."
The Joint Planning Staff rejected Churchill's notion of retaining bridgeheads on the continent
as having no operational advantage.
It was envisaged that Britain would use its air force and navy to resist, although a threat
from mass rocket attack was anticipated, with no means of resistance except for strategic
bombing.
Subsequent discussions By 1946 tensions and conflicts were developing
between allied-occupied and soviet-occupied areas of Europe.
These were seen as being potential triggers for a wider conflict.
One such area was the Julian March, and on 30 August 1946 informal discussions took place
between the British and US Chiefs of Staff concerning how such a conflict could develop
and the best strategy for conducting a European war.
Again the issue of retaining a bridgehead on the continent was discussed, with Dwight
D. Eisenhower preferring a withdrawal to the Low Countries, rather than Italy, for their
proximity to the United Kingdom.
See also Seven Days to the River Rhine
Citations
References
External links Richard Northon-Taylor: Churchill plotted
invasion of Russia; Richard Norton-Taylor on allied blueprint to crush Soviet system
after the end of the war in Europe, The Guardian, 2 October 1998
Julian Lewis: 978-0-415-49171-6 Changing Direction: British Military Planning for Post-war Strategic
Defence, 2nd edn., Routledge, 2008, pp.xxx-xl Operation Unthinkable: Churchill’s plan
to start World War III