Hi, this is David from MinuteEarth. In 1985, we found out that the world as we knew it was ending:
the ozone layer - the natural atmospheric layer that shields the Earth from the sun's
super-damaging UV rays - had - in certain spots - lost 40% of its thickness in the previous 10
years. If the trend continued, the shield would have become so compromised that in a matter
of decades, UV rays would destroy the world’s food supply and cause blindness and skin cancer
epidemics around the world. But here we are, four decades later - we’ve got lots of problems,
but an ozone-instigated dystopia ain't one. And that's because back in 1985,
we followed a surprisingly simple formula that helped us stave off the impending ozo-pocalypse.
Step 1: Understand the problem. What was destroying ozone - the gas that makes up
the ozone layer? Man-made molecules called CFCs, found in everything from hairsprays
to refrigerators, were a prime suspect. And scientists found that when those molecules
reach ice-cold stratospheric clouds and get hit by ultraviolet radiation from the Sun,
they release chlorine atoms that go on a turbo-charged ozone-destroying rampage,
where each chlorine atom can destroy a hundred thousand ozone molecules.
Step 2: Science your way to a plan. It soon became obvious: the CFCs needed to go. Because hundreds
of industries relied heavily on CFC molecules as propellants and refrigerants, scientists worked
overtime to create replacement molecules that could do the same things CFCs could do but without
accompanying ozone-destroying side effects. Step 3: Get the political powers that be to agree.
By 1987 - just two years after the ozone hole was discovered - many of the world’s
most powerful nations signed a treaty - the Montreal Protocol - to stop producing CFCs,
which cut off the supply of CFCs going into products - and therefore into the air.
Step 4: Take advantage of a little luck. Lots of different things had to break our way to get the
Montreal Protocol signed. For example, then-US president Ronald Reagan - one of the biggest
potential roadblocks due to his anti-regulation stance - happened to be a skin cancer survivor,
and his surprisingly enthusiastic support was key to getting the treaty ratified.
Since then, the concentration of CFCs in the atmosphere has been reduced by 98%
and we're on track to have our ozone shield back to its thick former glory by 2075.
We've used the same four-step formula to successfully tackle other global crises,
too - like in eradicating smallpox. First, understanding: virologists figured out
that - unlike diseases like the bubonic plague and yellow fever that incubated in other
animals - smallpox was a uniquely homo sapien disease that relied exclusively on human-to-human
spread. Second, a plan: if we could completely stop the virus's spread in humans, we could
kill it off for good. So public health officials created a strategy to send elite teams of vaccine
specialists to inoculate people whenever and wherever the disease flared up. Third, political
agreement: the World Health Organization got all countries on board in 1966 for the Intensified
Eradication Program to put the plan into action. Fourth, we took advantage of a lucky break:
Smallpox survivors share distinct scars that are super recognizable, so it was easy to spot
disease flare ups and rapidly vaccinate everyone nearby. By 1979, there were zero people on earth
infected with smallpox - it was eradicated, which has already saved an estimated 200 million lives.
But just because there is a basic formula for staving off global disaster,
doesn't mean that actually following it has been easy. And our current and future
crises - from climate change and a pandemic to nuclear war and disloyal AI - are only going
to be harder to solve; despite the fact that we have more advanced science on our side,
we also have more divisive politics that make global cooperation even more fraught. But we’ve
successfully saved ourselves from destructive molecules and pathogens in the past - and if
we follow the formula, we should be able to do it again. And again. And again. And again.
This video was sponsored by the Future of Life Institute to celebrate recipients of the Future
of Life Award. This award is given annually to individuals who have steered the course
of history away from disaster without having received much public recognition at the time.
The 2020 Award went to Viktor Zhdanov and Bill Foege for their contributions
to the eradication of smallpox, and this year's award goes to Joe Farman,
Susan Solomon and Stephen Andersen for their roles in saving the ozone layer.