covert 19 continues to spread
global cases are past 60 million deaths
over 1.4
but hope has arrived in the form of
three apparently highly effective
vaccines announced one
after the other in november that
prompted a surge in the number of
searches
about them and everyone's asking when
can we
get the vaccine well to answer that
there are several factors the first
is global demand an estimated seven and
a half billion doses are needed
that's because around sixty to seventy
percent of the global population
has to be vaccinated this is why if you
have a highly efficacious
vaccine and only a relatively small
forty fifty percent of the people get
vaccinated
you're not going to get the herd
immunity you need and without herd
immunity
the virus will continue to spread so the
demand for this vaccine is
vast which takes us to the second factor
capacity
pfizer and biontec estimate they can
produce up to 1.3 billion doses by the
end of 2021
moderna up to 1 billion astrazeneca up
to 3 billion of the oxford vaccine
huge numbers but look at this from the
who saying
the only certainty is that there won't
be enough and
if there aren't enough doses our third
factor is
which countries take priority in short
the richest ones will
we know the uk the eu the u.s australia
and others have cut deals to receive
millions of vaccine doses and the wh is
worried
there is no real risk that the poorest
and most
vulnerable people trampled will be
trampled
in the stamped for vaccines there is a
plan to stop
this it's called kovacs and already
almost 100 countries are agreeing to
share vaccine resources
fairly regardless of a country's wealth
that will help
so will humanitarian groups funding
affordable vaccines
but only to a point where you live will
affect
when you get the vaccine next we have to
consider your age
your health and your job the kovacs plan
prioritizes health and social care
workers
then this is emmanuel macron on the
french approach
we will probably start at the end of
december early january subject to
validation by the health authorities by
vaccinating the most fragile people and
therefore the oldest
the uk ii is prioritizing the elderly
the vulnerable and essential workers
that's the start beyond that the head of
the uk's vaccine task force said in
october
people keep talking about time to
vaccinate the whole population but that
is misguided
it's an adult only vaccine for people
over 50
in other words some adults will get it
not all
then in the us this is president-elect
joe biden
on his ambitions we'll need to put in
place a distribution plan
to get the entire country immunized as
soon as possible
which we will do but it's going to take
time
well whether an entire country or some
of it he's right it's going to take time
the question is how long will this take
well this is a vast logistical challenge
so while vaccinations may start this
year
if you're not elderly vulnerable or
working in health or social care
the who says you may have to wait till
2022.
there are though some who aren't having
to wait at all
in china hundreds of thousands of people
have taken state-sponsored experimental
vaccines
in russia it's vaccines being used on a
range of essential workers
even one of vladimir putin's daughters
has had it but none of these vaccines
have yet
completed industry standard trials and
finally there's the issue of
people who don't want it at all these
are anti-facts protests in germany
and a report recently published in the
lancet found that 31 million people
follow anti-facts groups like this on
facebook
we can't know what impact these will
have on the push for widespread
vaccination
but we can be clear on one thing while
demand for the vaccine is huge
those who don't want it won't be forced
to take
you