At first glance, the war in Ukraine...
...might look like something from the 20th century
You see a sort of trench-like landscape...
...that would be familiar to soldiers from 1915
But it holds many lessons for conflicts to come
While boots on the ground still matter...
Russia has moved to tighten its conscription law, pressing more men to fight
...new tech is making a huge difference
There’s this idea of revolutions in military affairs...
...and they’re typically attributed to technology
Drones will definitely be very important...
...in any conflict between Taiwan and China
As the world enters a new era of increased conflicts...
...what does the future of combat look like?
This may be the moment where war really does become something else
In Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv, Vitalii runs AirLogix...
...a company that makes drones for the Ukrainian military
Today he’s testing their flagship product...
...a reconnaissance drone called the “Gor”...
...as well as a smaller loitering munition, or kamikaze drone
Over 20 such systems have already been sent to the front line
It’s the successful culmination of months of research and development
Whether drones are adapted to be used as weapons or as guides...
...both Russia and Ukraine are sending huge numbers onto the battlefield
We’re now estimating that the Ukrainian armed forces...
...are losing some 10,000 drones a month
So just the extent to which drones are being used is definitely noteworthy
Drones have flown in wars before...
...but what’s different in Ukraine is how they’re being used
What I think it’s teaching us is that just because drones are being shot down...
...doesn’t mean they aren’t absolutely indispensable
If the drone is shot down, no problem. It’s done its job
These are almost becoming like consumables on the battlefield
Search-and-destroy drone missions are a huge part of the new tech...
...dominating the battlefield...
...but it’s artillery batteries, flying drones to show them where to aim their guns...
...that are using them with the most effect
Without expendable drones as their eyes and ears, shooters would be nearly blind
Just how many drones are being used is an invaluable lesson for any future conflict
Quantity can really matter in a war, and quantity has a quality of its own
That’s something that in the West we may have forgotten...
...to some extent, we have relatively shallow arsenals...
...with regard to ammunition and things like that
And now we’re realising that, yeah, in these kind of rather large conventional wars...
...you also just need a lot of drones and a lot of everything, really
Whether they’re consumable or large and long-range...
...Ukraine has demonstrated drones will be regular players in wars of the future
But the intelligence drones collect is only useful...
...if there’s a means of communicating it to the wider force
And in the battlefield that isn’t always easy
Soldiers like Favorsky are at the forefront of that challenge
They risk their lives training soldiers how to use technology...
...that has become a lifeline for Ukraine
Starlink
Away from the battlefield, maintaining the equipment is essential
Starlink is a satellite constellation owned by SpaceX, an American rocket company
It’s made up of more than 4,000 low-orbit satellites...
...that provide off-grid internet access...
...a lifeline when heavy artillery is constantly battering your ground-based utilities
And crucially, it’s allowing soldiers...
...on the ground to share images from drone feeds to connect targets...
...with the nearest artillery team...
...a kind of Uber for howitzers
Other countries are taking note
Chinese generals have been watching American wars since 1991...
...when America’s lightning-fast victory over Iraq...
...woke them up to the power of American intelligence...
...and digital networks
And from that moment on, the People’s Liberation Army of China realised...
...not only that they had to be able to wage a similar kind of warfare...
...but that if they were going to be able...
...to defeat America and its allies in Asia, they would have to take out...
...not just weapons and soldiers on the ground...
...but you take out the systems that they rely on
Taiwan, constantly in China’s crosshairs, knows its undersea...
...internet cables could be cut in the event of an invasion
It too sees the value of a Starlink-type constellation in a future conflict
Satellite communications in the future are going to be...
...that absolutely critical element...
...that allows sensors to be connected to shooters in a timely fashion...
...in a way that ensures if a soldier sees a tank and sends that information back...
...you can hit it, in a timescale that is minutes...
...not hours, by which the tank may be miles away
Starlink may help information move quicker and more securely...
...but in wars of the future...
...artificial intelligence will help to make sense of that information
Hello, I’m Tom Standage, deputy editor at The Economist
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Generals in Ukraine are already adapting AI technology...
...to help them plan what to attack...
...what resources to use and when...
...a kind of Google Maps for armies
It’s another glimpse of how new tech...
...will be helping tomorrow’s soldiers
You’ll use these virtual simulations for various...
...training or experimental purposes
Jennifer McArdle should know
She specialises in training soldiers for future wars
Ukraine has been a great example of how the ubiquity and proliferation of sensors...
...has allowed them to more effectively close kill chains
Shortening a kill chain means speeding up the time...
...between finding a target and destroying it
That’s a maritime patrol aircraft...
...can you show me their position?
Satellites, radar and drones provide an overwhelming amount of data...
...from the battlefield, and sorting through it is hugely time-intensive
If you’re able to use AI to go through that information...
...and to be able to present information...
...that matters for a decision-maker, you have speed
You can work through that decision-making cycle...
...much more quickly than you can right now
And AI isn’t just helping to make decisions
It’s also guiding the machines
Shield AI is a military tech company working to build an “AI pilot”...
...artificial intelligence software that can fly unmanned craft during combat
The future of warfare is going to be characterised...
...by thousands of unmanned aerial vehicles, unmanned surface vehicles...
...unmanned underwater vehicles
And what is going to be the differentiating factor...
...among all these vehicles...
...is the level of intelligence...
...the level of autonomy integrated into each one of those vehicles
You’ll see unmanned systems outnumber...
...the number of warfighters on the front lines of these conflicts
They will play a key role in any battle of the future
Business is booming for military startups
Since 2021...
...the American defence department’s spending on AI allocated by financial year...
...has more than doubled
And NATO is also heavily investing
There has been a wave of venture capital...
...that has gone to defence technology companies
I think it’s because you see an industry...
...that is fundamentally transforming
The products and capabilities...
...that are going to matter in the next conflict...
...are going to be derived from software capabilities from AI
But there are concerns about leaving the decision to kill to an algorithm
There’s this worry, I think, in popular culture that AI...
...is going to spawn these terminators
And while I think there is reason to be cautious...
...I do think it’s important we don’t engage in hyperbole
In the US and in a lot of Western countries...
...we have made the deliberate decision...
...that when it comes to decisions around...
...lethality, a human will always be in, or on, that decision-making loop
Where this, I think, does become a little bit worrisome...
...is that other countries haven’t made that same normative decision
Over 100 countries have military systems with some degree of autonomy
It’s easy to see how a weapon that thinks for itself could be an advantage
If you are a commander and you launch...
...the weapon, let’s say at an aircraft, and its communications are jammed...
...if it spots a target on the ground...
...are you going to wait for your communication link to be restored...
...by which time the target may have gone away?
Or are you going to give the weapon...
...the authority to take the shot itself?
From a purely military perspective...
...that independence is hugely valuable under those kinds of...
...comms-denied environments
But for now, humans largely maintain lethal control
I’m sceptical that AI on its own can turn the tide of war
I think we have to be very cognisant of the fact AI remains incredibly brittle
It struggles to adapt to unexpected situations and scenarios...
...and warfare is just full of the unexpected
It’s replete with fog and friction
And in wars of the future, like now, not all fighting will be done with bullets and missiles
Over 8,000km from Ukraine, in the South China Sea...
...there may be fewer trenches, but a furious struggle is still under way
China has long claimed sovereignty over Taiwan...
......a democratic, self-governing island that it sees as a breakaway province
But geography is on Taiwan’s side
For China to launch a straightforward invasion of Taiwan, there are many difficulties...
...including launching the largest-ever amphibious operation since Normandy
This will be extremely difficult for China
The landing itself is also extremely difficult...
...because China hasn’t actually conducted...
...any kinetic military operations since 1979, so this is a big gamble
In the face of such challenges...
...China may try a different tack if it invades Taiwan
The People’s Liberation Army believes in the three-warfare doctrine...
...which requires communication with your potential audience...
...in order to achieve a psychological effect
Cyber provides a very powerful means for them to extend that concept...
...such as propaganda, such as united front operations
If they could do that, and this is relatively cheap...
...you could conduct an entire year’s worth of operations...
...and the cost would not nearly be as much as one ballistic missile
And cyberwarfare isn’t just a psychological weapon
They could cut off power supplies, critical military infrastructure...
...such as surveillance radar stations and keep Taiwan blind and deaf...
...to facilitate further kinetic operations
It may sound like a cleaner version of future war...
...but when it comes to conflict, there’s no escape from attrition
In Kyiv, Favorsky and his partner are preparing for him to return to the front
It’s very easy to get caught up in the hardware of this conflict...
...the drones, the tanks, the satellites
But it is very important to understand ultimately, this is still people
Mostly men, often very young men...
...holding guns, firing at the enemy and suffering trauma...
...life-changing injuries and death
Even in a war with high levels of technological sophistication...
...in the end, we still need to be prepared...
...for the 18-year-old dying somewhere in the mud
The fundamental nature of war as a human conflict, with humans killing each other...
...I don’t think that that is going to go away
War is still ultimately irreducibly...
...about that clash of arms waged often at close quarters...
...in which bodies pile up...
...societies are ravaged
...and each country’s youth, the most talented of their young generation...
...are lost in huge numbers
Thank you for watching
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