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As World War II was coming to an end and the Nazi threat was being suppressed,
the uncertainty of the new world order significantly concerned the Allied leaders,
with British Prime Minister Winston Churchill especially wary of Joseph Stalin’s unreliability.
When the Soviet Union betrayed the Yalta Agreement and took over Poland, tensions
between the two global powers rose exponentially. Churchill then summoned his top military leaders
and urged them to develop a plan to face their former allies and now potential adversaries.
US General George S. Patton agreed, even warning the US Undersecretary of War, Robert Patterson,
and saying: (QUOTE) “Let’s keep our boots polished, bayonets sharpened,
and present a picture of force and strength to these people. This is the only language
they understand and respect. If you fail to do this, then I would like to say to you that
we have had a victory over the Germans and have disarmed them, but have lost the war.”
From beginning to end, the trajectory of World War II was determined by careful calculations
and fateful decisions made by Allied and Axis leaders. It’s only with hindsight that
we can revisit those decisions and form conclusions about those who made them.
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leader of the era, from Allied leaders Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt,
and Joseph Stalin to Axis leaders Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini, and Emperor Hirohito. The series
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Not Yet the End
In February of 1945, President Franklin D. Roosevelt,
Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and Premier Joseph Stalin met in Crimea in what would be
known as the Yalta Conference to discuss the reorganization of Europe after the war ended.
The meeting’s goal was not only to discuss collective security but also to reincorporate
the liberated nations into Europe and provide them with self-determination.
The Allies had liberated France and Belgium and were currently engaged against the Germans in
the West. Meanwhile, the Soviets had removed the Nazis from Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria
on the other front. The war’s outcome was clear, and now the focus was on reestablishing peace.
However, each of the three heads of state had a private agenda.
Roosevelt required Soviet support against Japan for the incoming invasion
and their participation in the United Nations. Churchill demanded democratic
governments and free elections for all countries in Eastern and Central Europe,
especially Poland. And Stalin impelled a sphere of political influence in Eastern and Central Europe,
claiming it was a matter of national security for the Soviets.
The Russian mandatary was also keenly interested in Poland, given its historical use as a corridor
by invaders approaching Mother Russia. Stalin would state that: (QUOTE) "For the Soviet
government, the question of Poland was one of honor [...] because the Russians had greatly
sinned against Poland [...] the Soviet government was trying to atone for those sins [...] the
Soviet Union is interested in the creation of a mighty, free and independent Poland."
Still, the Soviets would keep the territory they had annexed from Eastern Poland in 1939, and
in exchange, Poland would receive a territorial expansion to the West at the expense of Germany.
Despite the Soviet-sponsored provisional government in Poland and the country’s
Red Army occupation, the Communist leader promised them free elections.
However, even as the agreement was signed on paper, the Soviets were more interested
in creating puppet states and did not let go of their area of influence as promised.
Churchill was wary of communism expanding across Europe and into the English Isles,
and wrote to his Foreign Secretary: (QUOTE) “Terrible things have happened.
A tide of Russian domination is sweeping forward [...] It is to an early and speedy
showdown and settlement with Russia that we must now turn our hopes.”
A Ludicrous Idea
A few days before the conflict ended, the British Prime Minister summoned his Chiefs of Staff.
Churchill wanted assurance that the Allied forces could confront the Red Army
and inquired whether they could potentially push back the Russians from the River Elbe.
Furthermore, Churchill demanded that a plan be laid out, taking into account what was left of
Germany’s economy, workforce, and troops. A date was then settled for the beginning of
the assault. It would take place on July 1, 1945. However, Chief of the Army General Sir Alan Brooke
disapproved of the plan. Likening the Prime Minister to a warmonger,
Brook wrote in his diary that Churchill was: (QUOTE) “longing for another war.”
Meanwhile, US General George S. Patton seemed to agree with the British Prime Minister.
Patton allegedly advised Undersecretary of War Robert Patterson to keep the American
Army positioned in Europe and bordering the Soviet lines. If the Russians didn’t withdraw,
he advocated to push them back in the name of Eastern Europe’s freedom.
Patton claimed that: (QUOTE) “We did not come over here to acquire jurisdiction over either
the people or their countries. We came to give them back the right to govern themselves. We must
either finish the job now—while we are here and ready—or later in less favorable circumstances.”
However, the politicians in Washington and the American soldiers still in the European Theater
were exhausted and only wanted everyone to be back home after such an unfathomable war.
And there was still the need for forces in the Pacific for the invasion of Japan.
Churchill became highly concerned that the Allied withdrawal would grant the Soviets a
strong position, especially in Western Europe. In May of 1945, the British Armed Forces' Joint
Planning Staff presented a plan known as Operation Unthinkable.
The first draft called for a surprise attack on the Soviets stationed in Germany.
The assessment concluded that the British and American morale was still high,
and the Allies counted on the support of Polish and German forces. The main objective was:
(QUOTE) “To impose upon Russia the will of the United States and British Empire.”
The Allies strived to get a fair deal for Poland, which the Joint Planning Staff believed might
force the Russians to abide by Allied terms. However, it was just as possible that that
wouldn’t be the case, and the report stated that: (QUOTE)
“It is for the Russians to decide. If they want total war, they are in a position to have it.”
Operation Unthinkable
The British Prime Minister stood his ground, and with good reason.
He was aware that his allies were getting successful results from the Manhattan Project
and that a nuclear attack on Moscow, Stalingrad, or Kiev was imminent if Stalin did not comply.
The plan called for a surprise attack on Dresden with 47 Allied divisions. This
amounted to almost half the divisions available to the British, American, and Canadian forces.
However, the Chiefs of Staff Committee found the idea unfeasible,
as Soviet land forces had an advantage of 2.5 to 1 in Europe and the Middle East.
Even with the entire American, British, and Polish forces, in addition to the
repurposed German prisoners of war, success would depend on the surprise element alone.
And it was also believed that Russia could have made an alliance with the Japanese,
as the Pacific War was not over yet. Therefore, an offensive operation was considered too risky.
Stalin was aware of the British intentions through his spy network in London,
and it became evident that an offensive was being put into place when Field Marshal Bernard
Montgomery was ordered to stockpile captured German weaponry: (QUOTE) “for future use.”
In June of 1945, senior Soviet commander Marshal Georgy Zhukov
abruptly ordered a regrouping of Soviet forces in Poland, assuming defensive positions.
It was then likely that Moscow knew about the operation, but it could also be that
the Soviets distrusted the Western allies and were just being wary.
Still, if the Russians knew about the Allied plans, there would be no surprise element,
crushing their chances to succeed. Operation Unthinkable had too many shortcomings,
and the report warned that: (QUOTE) “If we are to embark on war with Russia,
we must be prepared to be committed to a total war, which would be both long and costly.”
The Prime Minister received a draft copy by early June and realized that support from
the American forces would be indispensable, but it could not be guaranteed. The British
mandatory then concluded that the operation was: (QUOTE) “purely hypothetical contingency.”
Churchill then requested a follow-up report on measures that would: (QUOTE)
“ensure the security of the British Isles in the event of war with Russia in the near future."
A defensive response was then prepared, but the report concluded
that Britain’s odds were unfavorable given the US primary focus on the Pacific Theater.
After the change of administration in the US, President Harry S. Truman was clear
that America would not take part in Operation Unthinkable, halting any chances of success.
Furthermore, the Joint Planning Staff was against the Prime Minister’s wish to retain
bridgeheads in continental Europe, as they would not result in any operational advantage.
And although Britain's Navy and Air Force were superior to the Soviets’,
there was fear that they could retaliate with a massive rocket attack.
Aftermath
While Churchill was right to distrust the Soviet Primer, the entire operation was buried for good
after his electoral defeat in 1945. However, concerns about the Soviet expansion
prompted the American military authorities to revise the initial idea only a year later.
But increasing tensions between the Allies and the Soviets in Europe
compelled the top American leaders to reconsider whether Operation Unthinkable
was a feasible strategy or the creation of a distressed mind in power for too long.
Still, a wider conflict could be triggered, and the matter was officially reopened on August 30,
1946, with General Dwight Eisenhower advocating for
a withdrawal to the Low Countries because of their proximity to the British territories.
Operation Unthinkable is considered the first contingency plan of the Cold War era,
and the plot was so secret that it was fully disclosed until 1998,
well after the fall of the Soviet Union.
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