if the u.s went to war with china who would win admiral james stavridis was 16th supreme allied
commander of nato and 12th dean of the fletcher school of law and diplomacy at tufts university
he spent the bulk of his operational career in the pacific and as author of 2034 a novel of
the next world war a great deal has been written about the possibility of a war between the u.s and
china it tends to be measured in theoretical terms and much of the analysis centers on exactly when
it might occur but the vital question is really quite simple who would win of course no one really
wins a major war but the best way to avoid having to go to war at all is to convince your potential
opponent that they almost certainly would be the biggest loser the military balance between china
and the united states is complicated and requires thinking about budgets numbers of warships and
aircraft geography alliance systems and technology especially undersea capability cyber security and
space let's start with dollars and yuan the u.s defense budget is fairly transparent at least
in terms of total dollars defense spending was around 714 billion dollars in the 2020 fiscal year
and is likely to increase to 733 billion in 2021 somewhat opaque china's defense spending
is certainly smaller with this defense budget set at 1.36 trillion yuan 212.6 billion dollars a 6.8
increase from the previous year but china does not have the high personnel costs of an all-volunteer
force and their military activities are largely focused on east asia not the very expensive global
footprint of the u.s military and a significant level of their spending does not appear on the
public books overall in terms of resources the us has an advantage but it is not as overwhelming
as it appears in terms of simple numbers of warships china is already leading the u.s roughly
to 350-300 in combat vessels and the chinese shipyards are pumping out
new warships on a near-weekly basis especially relatively low technology patrol missile boats
corvettes and frigates still u.s ships are ton for ton larger endowed with better offensive
and defensive systems and manned by far more experienced crews additionally the u.s has a
very sophisticated network of command and control capabilities to knit together its
long-range aviation platforms alongside surface warships and of course submarines when factoring
in the tight geography of east asia i would say slight advantage china in terms of pure numbers
of platforms both sea and air with the u.s having higher quality of assets geographically china
enjoys a great advantage in a potential conflict with the u.s and the south and east china seas
notably china would be able to support its warships logistically in terms of fuel and
ammunition provide combat repair facilities nearby and move sailors on and off their ships with ease
for the united states lengthy supply and manpower chains would bedevil u.s forces even allowing for
the presence of u.s bases close by additionally the string of artificial islands built by china
throughout the south china sea would somewhat balance the u.s bases in south korea japan and
guam the u.s navy by the way does not refer to the roughly 10 chinese islands as artificial islands
rather they are thought of as unsinkable aircraft carriers indeed a great deal of u.s tactical and
strategic warfighting thinking is going into how to neutralize those facilities with one thought
being to deploy u.s marine special forces marine raiders to destroy their offensive capability
early in a fight while the u.s would try to make up for its long logistic tail by engaging our
allies geography is clearly a factor that favors china how about alliances the u.s has long felt
that its greatest comparative advantage over china is its network of allies partners and friends
around the world in asia that means strong support from japan the third largest economy in the world
australia very capable naval forces south korea singapore and many others the u.s is also strongly
cultivating india via the quad concept of aligning it with the u.s japan and australia yet how much
the u.s could count on such partners in the face of a chinese attack is a growing question
additionally china is increasingly taking a page from the u.s and strengthening its systems
of partnerships the belt and road initiative is designed to do exactly that and the chinese are
making inroads both in asia and the east coast of africa most importantly beijing is consolidating
its relationships with russia the two nations frequently exercised together militarily
iran china just announced a 400 billion investment pakistan and the philippines president rodrigo
duterte seems to favor china in many issues over the u.s nominally a formal treaty ally
overall the us allies are bigger richer and have stronger militaries so an advantage for
washington but the gap is closing finally and most importantly victory in a u.s china war
would be highly influenced by who has the best technology in the key areas of undersea silencing
of submarines numbers of military satellites in space offensive and defensive cyber tools and
unmanned vehicles the u.s still has the lead but china is closing fast especially in artificial
intelligence hypersonic cruise missiles cyber and the emerging field of quantum computing
the recently released national commission on artificial intelligence is telling in this regard
again slight but closing advantage to the united states bottom line if i were the
admiral commanding the u.s indo-pacific command the leader for all american military forces in
the pacific and indian oceans i would still want the us hand of cards to play but as the duke of
wellington said of the battle of waterloo a fight with china would be at near-run thing
and over the next decade that gap will close and if the u.s does not respond we'll favor china
that is why i set my recent novel 2034 a novel of the next world war 10 to 15 years in the future
those alarm bells are going off at the pacific fleet headquarters in pearl harbor and watch
for u.s strategic focus resources and advanced technology to head west in the coming decade