Russia, Russia and more Russia. Such has been the barrage of international news since Putin's hordes
invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The Ukrainian War has garnered virtually all media and political
attention internationally. And understandably so. You could say that it stands to reason that
the war in Ukraine has overshadowed everything else. Including other tragic events as well. For
example, do you remember these images from 2021? Indeed, in August 2021, with the withdrawal of
the last US troops, Afghanistan fell back into the hands of Islamic fundamentalism: Afghanistan
fell back under the thumb of the Taliban. And I know what many of you are going to say:
but hang on Josh, didn't you already tell us this story? Well yes, it's true... In
2021 here on Visualpolitik we published a trilogy telling you why the Taliban were
so successful and what their comeback could mean. If you didn't see those three videos,
we’ll leave you the links in the description. After almost two years of Taliban government, we
wanted to make a new video to tell you how the new government is doing and what exactly the return to
power of the Taliban has meant for the country. Although I think that with news headlines like
this you can already guess where we’re going. (Afghan children starving to death as hunger
"rapidly spreading"– RFERL) (Hunger, poverty continue to
stalk desperate Afghans. A lack of funding batter Afghanistan's troubled economy,
leading to increasing poverty – Aljazeera) Indeed, Afghanistan is going through one
of its worst crises of all time and humanitarian aid, well... It simply
does not arrive like it did before the Taliban. But, not only that, the destruction of practically
all individual freedoms, having turned this country back into a haven for radical groups
and their particular way of governing, think: despotic and anachronistic,
is making Afghanistan a leading contender for becoming the worst country in the world.
But, VisualPolitik viewers, how did the Taliban get to this point? How
exactly are they ruling Afghanistan? Is the government as disastrous as many say it is,
or are they learning to run the country? Who is trying to win favor with the Taliban today?
Well, in this video we are going to answer all these questions. And I can
already tell you that many of the answers are sure to surprise you... Or maybe not.
Let's get started.
(TALIBAN 1.0) I'm certain many, if not most,
of you think that the Taliban are nothing more than a bunch of power-hungry loonies.
And, in a way, that may be so. But do you know where they came from? Does the word "mujahideen"
mean anything to you? Well, the Taliban started out as mujahideen, that is, strictly speaking,
Islamist fighters practicing jihad. Typically, however, when we hear about
mujahideen, the vast majority automatically think of those US-backed Afghans who fought against the
Soviet Union when it invaded Afghanistan in 1979. As might be expected, after the Soviet withdrawal,
the mujahideen started a kind of civil war between 1992 and 1996. Out of that conflict were born the
Taliban, who, by the way, won the war. And so, the first Taliban government was born in 1996.
This first Taliban government has been considered one of the most brutal in recent history.
Human rights were constantly disregarded: Public executions on soccer fields, the stoning
of women for adultery and inhumane punishments for simply showing any part of the female
body. Not surprisingly, any individual rights or freedoms for women were wiped off the map. They
were deprived of access to education, of having a job, and even of being able to move around unless
it was with a man in their circle. A total hell. It was a regime so brutal that it was recognized
by only three countries in the world: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The regime ended up falling five years after taking power. As it turns out,
it did not fall due to any internal social uprising, but because of Uncle Sam's intervention.
As you all know, after the 9/11 attacks, the United States targeted the Taliban for having
made Afghanistan a safe space for terrorist groups such as Bin Laden's Al-Qaeda. Washington demanded
the surrender of the Al-Qaeda leaders and when the Taliban refused, in October of that same year,
US troops invaded the country. The first Taliban government was history.
Nevertheless, as the saying goes: Bad pennies have a way of showing up. And that is exactly
what happened with the Taliban. Despite the overwhelming control of the United
States during the initial years, in 2005 the Taliban began to regroup and in 2006
they started to develop operations of a certain magnitude against the US troops.
Thereafter, with the support of the Pakistani government, the presence and influence of the
Taliban gradually spread throughout most of the country. What’s more, thanks to the high
revenues derived from the Opium trade, the Taliban managed to become the best financed,
armed and organized insurgency group. The perfect insurgency and a nightmare for Washington.
Stiff Taliban resistance and little progress by either the government or the Afghan military
itself led then-President Donald Trump to make a decision that made international
headlines in 2020. Check it out. (Afghan conflict: US and Taliban
sign deal to end 18-year war – BBC) Indeed, without the involvement of
the Afghan government, Trump struck a deal with the Taliban: he promised to withdraw
all US troops by the summer of 2021. In return, the Taliban were to commit
that Afghanistan would not become a nest of international terrorist groups that could
threaten the United States and its allies. The second Taliban government in Afghanistan
was already underway. And so, that's exactly what happened in 2021... Much more quickly
than anyone would have predicted. After the departure of the US troops,
the Afghan army virtually fell apart and the Taliban retook Kabul.
Since then, this country has disappeared from the mainstream media. But what has actually
been happening since then, what does the new Afghanistan of the Taliban look like? Well,
let's take a look. (TALIBAN... UPDATED
VERSION)
Let's be honest. Anyone with a little common sense knew that the Taliban
were going to follow a more or less similar course to that of their first government.
It is true that this time they have tried to show themselves as somewhat more moderate, but the data
is the data, and the reality is that with this Taliban, Afghanistan has once again become a hell
on earth. Although for some more than for others: (Afghanistan: Taliban ban women from universities
amid condemnation – BBC) (Taliban prohibit Afghan women
from working with United Nations – LeMonde) Exactly, dear VisualPolitik community, the
Taliban have done just what we all expected: they have once again taken away practically all women's
rights and freedoms with the stroke of a pen. Women cannot study in universities nor can
teenage girls attend high schools. Nor can they work in NGOs or United Nations agencies. And,
not only that, in the companies in which they are allowed to work,
which are becoming fewer and fewer, they can only do so if they are completely separated from men.
And, naturally, if they do not comply with the strict dress code, they can expect the worst. All
this courtesy of the re-established Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and the Prevention of
Vice, which is what the Taliban have put in place of the Ministry of Women’s Affairs that had been
in place until they came along. And that is not the end of it.
Along with the women, the Tajiks, who are the most critical voices against the Taliban and the
second largest ethnic group in the country after the Pashtuns – the group to which,
by the way, most of the Taliban belong – are also being harshly repressed.
Raids, forced searches, arbitrary arrests, beatings and disappearances,
as well as extrajudicial killings, have terrorized Tajiks and virtually anyone
who dares to criticize the Taliban regime. Of course, as you can imagine, freedom of
expression is conspicuous by its absence. But that’s not all: remember Trump's deal
with the Taliban? Yes, the one about not turning Afghanistan back into a nest of
terrorists. Well, see for yourselves... (Afghanistan once again terrorist safe
haven as US "over the horizon" capability faces limitations: – expert. - Fox News)
That’s right VisualPolitik viewers, groups like Al-Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban known as the
TTP, now roam freely throughout the country. In fact, do you know where Al-Qaeda leader,
Ayman al-Zawahiri, was assassinated in the summer of 2022? In the very
center of Kabul, the Afghan capital. (2 August 2022: Al-Qaeda leader Ayman
al-Zawahiri killed. The United States says a CIA drone strike has killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman
al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan's capital, Kabul, in the biggest blow to the group since its founder
Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011 – Al Jazeera) Although it is true that the Taliban are at least
fighting the Islamic State of Khorasan, the organization that bombed the Kabul airport as
US troops were withdrawing and killed a dozen US soldiers and 150 Afghans.
But, let's be honest, this confrontation has nothing to do with the agreement with
Trump. Instead it has to do with the hostilities that exist between the two
groups. Basically a good old power struggle. Yet, despite all the atrocities, many analysts
also say they are very surprised by some aspects of the Taliban's economic management.
You see, after the initial economic shock, the Taliban have managed to handle and stabilize
the country's economy. For example: they have managed to recover to some extent the value that
the national currency, the Afghani, had before international isolation by means of a tighter
control of the dollars leaving the country. What’s more, according to the World Bank,
corruption in customs has fallen from 62% to 8% due to the severe punishments imposed
by the "sharia" or Islamic law: basically steal and we will cut off your hand. They
have also raised enough revenue to be able to pay the salaries of the country's 800,000
civil servants, including 150,000 soldiers and 200,000 policemen.
They are even allowing themselves the luxury of launching some large projects.
(The Taliban are digging an enormous canal. A mega-project in northern Afghanistan risks
raising regional tensions – The Economist) Of course, all this is just a side note.
Do you think that the situation of the country allows us to be optimistic? Well,
as you can imagine, nothing could be further from the truth.
After the Taliban came to power, the country was totally isolated, in addition to suffering from
a host of sanctions. Between 2021 and 2022, the economy fell by 35%, taking hundreds of
thousands of jobs and destroying most of the country's small productive fabric.
This, as you can imagine, is pushing Afghan society to the limit: according to the UN, 97%
of the population lives in poverty and the number of Afghans in need of humanitarian aid has risen
from about 6 million in 2019 to 28 million today. Basically this means that famine is rapidly taking
hold in Afghanistan. And this is despite the humanitarian aid sent by the UN,
the United States, the European Union and other international players.
Naturally, given such a scenario, it is not surprising that the Taliban are quickly
looking for a solution, which is primarily to try to be recognized at the international
level in order to achieve some stability and normality. But, do you think there is any
State that wants to recognize this regime? Well, let’s take a look at that right now.
(RECOGNITION, THE GREAT TALIBAN CHALLENGE) We have already told you that in the 1990s
only three countries recognized the Taliban government. Well, do you know how many countries
have recognized them in this second period? The total number is zero. Zero countries.
Indeed, VisualPolitik viewers, this time even Pakistan itself has wanted to hold
off recognizing them for now. And they have been supporting them almost since the
beginning. But this time things are different: nearly two years after returning to power,
not even their closest partners trust them. For instance, let's take the case of Pakistan.
Pakistan has several problems with this Afghanistan Taliban, starting with the
support that India is giving them... Which, logically, is not sitting well with Islamabad.
Even so, it is probably the border conflict over the so-called "Durand Line" that is generating the
most tension. This line, which separates the two countries, was established by the British
Empire in 1893, and since the independence of both countries has been a constant source
of tension. In fact, clashes between border troops from both countries are not uncommon.
However, things appear to be calming down. (8 May 2023: Pakistan, Afghanistan agree to
boost trade, lower border tensions – Al Jazeera) Even so, let's not go too fast. There is one
issue that is not only an impediment to Pakistan recognizing the Taliban,
but also to two of the most important regional and global players: China and Russia.
Whether it is Pakistan, China or Russia, all three countries have one thing in common:
their concern for national and regional security. In this regard, for example, Pakistan has accused
the Afghan Taliban of providing a safe haven to the Pakistani Taliban, who broke
the ceasefire with the Pakistani government on 28 November 2022 and who have already staged
attacks in major cities in the country, such as Peshawar and Karachi, killing dozens of people.
For its part, China has a similar concern, but in this case with the
East Turkestan Islamic Movement, which is formed by Islamic fundamentalists of the
Uyghur ethnic group that concentrates its activity in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region,
which is right on the border with Afghanistan. In this way, China fears that the Taliban will
make its country a safe haven for Uyghur militants and therefore demands that Kabul continue to
hand over those it captures, as the previous Afghan government had been doing. Nevertheless,
the Taliban have already released several of them, which has not gone down too well in Beijing.
In this regard, Russia is the least concerned of the three countries, as its biggest threat,
the Islamic State of Khorasan, which has begun an anti-Russia campaign, is currently
being fought by the Taliban on Afghan soil. Yet Russia has not yet recognized the Taliban
as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan either. Of course, that does not mean that
it has not already approached them. In fact, Russia was the first State
to conclude such an agreement with the Taliban: (Taliban sign deal with Russia to buy cheap oil,
gas and wheat. – Bloomberg) In reality China is not lagging
behind either. It has lifted 98% of tariffs on Afghan products and has started giving visas
to Afghan businessmen. And not only that, despite Afghanistan's poor infrastructure,
last year it also approved a $216 million investment to build an industrial park on
the outskirts of Kabul. Besides, what can I say,
if China, Russia or Pakistan were to recognize the Taliban government, it would not be a surprise.
And so they have already taken some steps in that direction: that of
recognizing the Taliban. Of course, without credible guarantees of security and cooperation,
this is also up in the air. And the truth is that it would not change anything that much either.
It would be a different story if the United States or the European Union were to recognize them. And,
believe it or not, many US analysts are already asking for it. The reason? Well, the usual one:
to be able to influence to some extent the drift of the Taliban government and the country.
("The United States should diplomatically recognize Afghanistan's Taliban government.
This is not easy for (me) to say as a former Afghan ambassador (...). Doing
so will be perceived as a painful betrayal for many, but the alternative – allowing
Afghanistan's dangerous descent into a hermit kingdom and forsaking the insight and means to
influence or shape events – would mean more dire consequences for all" – Javid Ahmed, former Afghan
ambassador in a Foreign Policy article, 2023) Like this ambassador, many analysts believe that
neither sanctions nor any other form of coercion is going to make the Taliban relent in their
efforts to continue violating human rights, and that the best thing the United States can
do at this point is to recognize this before any other country does in an attempt to make
Afghanistan a less hostile place. So this is the current debate.
In any case, for this to happen, there would first have to be some certainty that the Taliban would
listen to US recommendations, something that, let's not kid ourselves, seems highly unlikely.
So far, Biden has given no sign that he will recognize the Taliban,
which is a blow to an Afghanistan that is going through one of the worst times in its history.
That said the question is for all of you: do you think Biden should recognize the Taliban? Could
Trump do so if he returned to the presidency in 2024? Which State do you think will be the
first to recognize them? Will Russia be the first to form a brotherhood of pariah States?
You can leave me your answer in the comments. As always,
don't forget that here on VisualPolitik we release new videos every week,
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