hello and welcome to a second note for
today coming to you twice because
unfortunately I have to report that
world stock markets are in their first
bear market in some five years this is
the footsie all World Index it's now
down at the close here in Wall Street
it's down more than twenty percent from
its recent high you do see if you look
at it in broader context that it's
actually not that long since the last
bear market that was when fears over the
US credit limit the debt ceiling
collided with worries about the eurozone
to give us a slightly greater bear
market back in 2011 obviously it still
doesn't compare with the fallout from
the dot-com bust or the credit crisis so
there's still a lot further we could
fall or alternatively this is still not
really such a deep market recession now
if we want to go through the guts of
today we did actually see the SP rise
quite significantly after in the
afternoon largely thanks to market
rumors that OPEC is about to get its act
together and coordinate to try to push
up oil prices obviously that turns out
to be true that would help many risk
assets even if it is not exactly the
panacea that to all that worries them
plainly the greatest concerns at this
point about banks beyond that you saw a
continued fall in the dollar you saw
very dramatic sell-offs in Europe and in
Asia and you saw further pressure on
banks while gold continued to prosper
the other very important trends I think
we need to look at briefly if we take a
look at this chart the 10-year bond
yield at this point is now almost back
to as low as it has been in the last
three years and once it gets through
that point it doesn't wouldn't take much
to do that we would be very close to the
post-war low that was hit in 2012
certainly many people that assumed even
six months ago that that was going to be
an enduring low that would last for a
map
of years if not decades now we again
seem to see a weight of money moving
back in to the bond market it's very
difficult to see how this can go on much
further but there it is quite remarkable
resurgence in the bond market while we
see the bear market in world stocks