As the dispute between Airbus and Qatar Airways intensifies, it seems increasingly
likely that the latter will not be placing any new aircraft orders with the former- at least for
the foreseeable future. With Airbus’ cancelation of Qatar Airways’ A321neo order on January 20th,
what options does the Middle Eastern carrier have when it comes to filling the gap in its fleet?
If you haven’t already heard the big news by now, Airbus has canceled Qatar
Airways’ upcoming order for 50 A321neos- 10 of which would have been the A321LR.
This recent move originates from the disagreement over the seriousness of A350 surface degradation.
At this moment, Qatar Airways has just three Airbus A321s in its fleet-
one of which appears to have been parked for several weeks now. These jets are the older -200,
or ‘ceo’ variant, and average 11.5 years of age. These jets are deployed on ‘skinny,’ lower-demand
medium-range services from Doha and include destinations like Belgrade, Sofia, Istanbul,
Colombo, Tbilisi, Larnaca, Bahgdad, and more. Belgrade and Colombo appear to be
on the further end of the A321’s deployments, which exceed flight durations of five hours.
The jets are also used for routes where is lower at certain times of the year,
requiring downsized capacity. Mumbai and Athens are two examples where the airline
would deploy larger, widebody jets like the 787, 777, A330, or A350 when demand allows.
The goal of the A321neo order at Qatar Airways was to not only replace these aging jets
and provide lower seat costs on the same routes, but to also take these concepts even further. The
new and improved version of the A321 offered notable gains in efficiency as well as range,
while its LR variant offered an even greater range.
In 2019, Qatar Airways said that it would use the A321LR to connect Doha
to quote unquote “new growing markets” where demand was insufficient for a widebody.
The jets would also provide additional frequencies on existing routes to give customers more choice.
With Qatar Airways’ A321neo order now canceled, what options are on the table for the airline?
Firstly, the airline may want to keep its existing fleet of A321s around longer to continue filling
the gap of medium-range, low-demand operations. However, if it wants to modernize the fleet and
improve efficiencies, the options seem limited. The A321neo’s size means that the aircraft is
suitable for carrying as many as 244 passengers to a maximum range of 4,000 nautical miles.
If we look at alternatives purely in terms of size, there are only two non-Airbus competitors:
The soon-to-be-certified Boeing 737 MAX 10, which has a maximum capacity of 230 passengers
And the 787-8, which has a one-class capacity of 359 passengers, with an even higher exit limit.
This puts the airline in a tough spot. The MAX 10 has slightly reduced capacity as well
as a fairly reduced range of 3,300 nautical miles. While the 787-8 can fly over 7,000 nautical miles,
it also far exceeds the size of the A321neo by over 100 passengers.
Perhaps highlighting yet again the need for Boeing to offer a mid-size aircraft.
Of course, if Qatar had to choose between the two, it would seem that the MAX 10 would fit
Qatar Airways’ operational requirements the closest- although not perfectly.
A far less likely option could be for Qatar Airways to simply acquire A321neos
from aircraft lessors. While this would suit the airline’s operational goals perfectly,
it’s extremely difficult to imagine that the carrier would want to swallow its pride to do so,
as even leasing Airbus aircraft would appear to be an endorsement of the European planemaker.
Indeed, at this point in the intense dispute, it appears that Qatar Airways
is headed towards becoming an all-Boeing carrier! Some aviation commentators have suggested that the
dispute will drive the airline to seek upcoming Chinese and Russian alternatives. At the moment,
however, neither country offers aircraft that are similarly sized to the A321neo.
Even if they did, this option appears to be the longest of long-shots
considering that these aircraft are relatively unproven
and largely uncertified around the world in many of the markets that the airline hopes to serve.
So what non-Airbus option do you think is best for Qatar Airways? Let us know by leaving a comment.