PLACE AT A HIGHER LEVEL.
KELLY, WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO
YOU.
KELLY COBIELLA IN POLAND RIGHT
NOW.
JOINING ME RIGHT NOW IS
LIEUTENANT COLONEL, ALEXANDER
--
HE IS THE FORMER DIRECTOR OF
EUROPEAN AFFAIRS UNDER THE
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL,
SENIOR ADVISER TO VOTE VANCE,
AND THE OFFER OF AN IMPORTANT
MATTER, HERE RIGHT MATTERS.
HE IS THE MAN WHO BLEW THE
WHISTLE ON DONALD TRUMP'S
SHAKEDOWN CAMPAIGN TO TRY TO
PRESSURE THE UKRAINIAN
PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY
TO DAMAGE JOE BIDEN IN THE RUN
UP TO THE 2020 ELECTION.
COLONEL, IT IS GOOD TO SEE YOU
THIS MORNING.
THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.
THE CONVERSATION HAS EVOLVED
INTO ONE OF THIS NO FLY ZONE.
THAT MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT AFTER
MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT AND THE
PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE SPOKE
DIRECTLY TO 300 MEMBERS OF THE
U.S. CONGRESS YESTERDAY.
KEPT ON ASKING FOR IT, AMERICA
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN, AND NATO
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THAT THAT
IS A NONSTARTER BECAUSE OF HOW
RUSSIA WOULD VIEW THAT AS
AGGRESSION, AS AN ACT OF WAR.
WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON WHAT HAS TO
BE DONE NOW?
WH
AT'S YOUR TAKE ON WHAT HAS T
>> WELL, ONE THING, WE NEED TO
START LOOKING PAST DEFEATISM,
AND THIS PERSPECTIVE FROM THE
GOVERNMENT, OUR OWN GOVERNMENT
THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH WE CAN
DO.
THAT'S ACTUALLY BEEN THE CALL
ALL ALONG.
WE FOLLOWED IT ERUPTS LEAD.
WE FOLLOWED ZELENSKYY'S LEAD
WITH REGARD TO THE SANCTIONS.
THE EUROPEAN BANKS --
EUROPE, RUSSIA'S CENTRAL BANK,
THEY WENT AFTER A SWIFT, AND WE
FOLLOWED AND TRAIL.
WE ARE NOT REALLY LEADING THIS
ONE.
WHAT WE NEED TO START DOING IS
RECOGNIZE THAT WE DO HAVE A
ROLE.
THE LONGER THIS WORK CONTINUES,
THE GREATER POSSIBILITY THAT WE
GET DRAWN INTO THIS.
FOR EVERYTHING THAT WE'VE DONE
THUS FAR HAS BEEN REALLY
RELUCTANTLY.
WE'VE BEEN A RELUCTANT PLAYER
BASED ON THIS THREAT THAT
SOMEHOW THIS COULD SPILL OVER
INTO A BROADER CONFLICT.
IT HAS.
THERE IS GOING TO BE AN
ECONOMIC TOLL.
AND THERE IS GOING TO BE A TOLL
ON FOOD SUPPLIES AROUND THE
WORLD.
THERE IS GOING TO BE AT ALL
WITHIN INFORMATION SPACE.
RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA HAVE --
THEY ARE ALMOST NOT EXISTENT AT
THIS POINT.
SO, WE NEED TO START THINKING,
AND PLANNING FOR LONG TERM.
I WROTE AN ARTICLE ABOUT
FOREIGN AFFAIRS, THIS IS A
CONCEPT WE HAD IN WORLD WAR II,
TO SUSTAIN OUR EUROPEAN ALLIES,
THE UK.
AND ACTUALLY, THE SOVIET UNION
IN PARTICULAR, BY ESTABLISHING
DEPOTS AND CONTINUOUS CONVOYS
TO MAKE SURE THAT THEY WERE
SUPPLIED FOR A LONG CAMPAIGN.
AND, THAT'S REALLY THE WAY WE
WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THIS.
BECAUSE, RUSSIA LAUNCHED A VERY,
VERY POORLY CONCEIVED PLAN.
PLAN A WAS TO RAPIDLY GROW INTO
UKRAINE, AND TAKE THE CITIES,
AND THEN LEAVE.
PLAN BE IS REALLY NOT ALL THAT
DISSIMILAR.
ITS MASSIVE FORCES TRYING TO
SURROUND KYIV, BELIEVING THEIR
SUPPLY LINES ARE EXPOSED.
YESTERDAY, THEY TOOK NINE
LOSSES IN AIRCRAFT.
THAT'S MASSIVE, THE LARGEST
AMOUNT OF AIRCRAFT LOST BY
PROBABLY ANY MAJOR POWER SINCE
WORLD WAR II.
WE NEED TO START THINKING ABOUT
THE LONG HAUL, HOW THIS IS GOING TO BE A SLUG.
GOING TO BE A SLUG.
PLAN C LOOKS LIKE RUSSIA
SURROUNDING KYIV, MAYBE.
I DON'T, KNOW THEY DON'T HAVE
ENOUGH COMBAT POWER.
THIS GIVES --
THIS GETS DRAWN OUT LONGER AND
LONGER, BLEEDING OUT THE
RUSSIAN ARMED FORCES THAT ARE
NOT DOING SUPER GREAT.
AND, THAT KIND OF HUMAN
CATASTROPHE, WE GET PULLED IN.
IT'S JUST THAT SIMPLE.
THERE IS NO RETURN TO NORMAL.
THE QUESTION IS, HOW DO WE KEEP
A COLD WAR FROM TURNING INTO A
HOT WAR?
AND, WE DO THIS BY PROVISIONING
THAT UKRAINIANS WITH MEDIUM AND
ON RIDGE ANTI TANK, WITH AIR
DEFENSE CAPABILITIES, AND WITH
AERIAL VEHICLES, TO STRIKE DEEP
TARGETS.
THAT'S HOW WE GET THROUGH THIS.
>> SO, I CAN'T UNDERSCORE THE
DEGREE TO WHICH YOU ARE AN
EXPERT ON THIS.
YOU ARE NOT ONLY AN EXPERT AT
THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL.
YOU ARE IN THAT ROOM WHERE, YOU
KNOW, A PRECURSOR TO THIS EVENT
TOOK PLACE, WHEN DONALD TRUMP
TRIED TO DENY CONGRESSIONALLY
APPROVED AID TO UKRAINE.
BUT, YOU ARE ALSO FROM HERE.
YOU ARE FROM UKRAINE.
I WANT TO READ IT JUST A LITTLE
BIT FROM THIS ARTICLE THAT YOU
PUBLISHED IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS
WHICH I THINK IS A MUST READ.
IT'S WHY YOU'VE BEEN SAYING.
I WANT TO JUST PUT THIS ON THE
SCREEN SO THAT OUR VIEWERS CAN
SEE.
THE KREMLIN HAS SUFFERED
CATASTROPHIC LOSSES IN TERMS OF
PERSONNEL, VEHICLES, AND
EQUIPMENT.
BUT, THE RUSSIAN MILITARY HAS
SIGNIFICANT RESERVES TO
REPLENISH ITS FORCES.
MEANWHILE, UKRAINE WILL RUN
SHORT OF FUEL, AMMUNITION, ANTI
TANK WEAPONS, AIR DEFENSE
SYSTEMS, UNMANNED COMBAT AERIAL
VEHICLES, AND AIRCRAFT LONG
BEFORE IT'S MAN POWER IS
EXHAUSTED OR IT'S MORALE
BREAKS.
WESTERN DEMOCRACIES HAVE THE
NECESSARY RESOURCES TO CLOSE
THIS GAP, AND ENSURE THAT
UKRAINE PREVAILS.
SO, IF THAT'S NOT A NO-FLY ZONE,
WHAT DOES THAT ACTUALLY LOOK
LIKE ON THE GROUND?
DOES IT LOOK LIKE UKRAINIANS
HAVING MISSILES AND JAVELINS TO
TAKE DOWN AIRCRAFT AND
HELICOPTERS, AND MISSILE
BATTERY?
>> THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT.
IT'S NOT NATO COMING IN WITH A
NO FLY ZONE.
WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT THINGS
THAT SEEMED UNPALATABLE TEN
DAYS AGO ARE NOW BEING
DISCUSSED.
THESE AIRCRAFTS THAT THE U.S.,
FROM WHAT I UNDERSTAND, IT MAY
HAVE OBSTRUCTED FROM POLAND,
THESE SOVIET AIRCRAFT COMING
FORWARD ARE NOW --
THERE ARE SERIOUS DISCUSSIONS
ABOUT PUSHING THOSE FORWARD.
POLAND, SLOVAKIA, AND BULGARIA.
SO, THESE THINGS THAT SEEMED
UNPALATABLE BEFORE ARE NOW
QUITE REASONABLE.
AND, THINGS THAT WILL SEEM --
THAT SEEM UNPALATABLE NOW, A
WEEK, OR TWO WEEKS FROM NOW ARE
GOING TO BE NECESSARY.
SO, OPTIONS ARE GOING TO
NARROW.
RISKS ARE GOING TO INCREASE.
BUT, THIS IS NOT SOMETHING THAT
REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES
RISK.
PROVIDING --
WE PROVIDE MORE OF THE AIR
VEHICLES.
SO, WE'VE BROKEN THE CODE ON
THAT ONE.
THE MEMBERS OF NATO ARE DOING
IT.
IT'S THAT UKRAINIANS USING
THEIR STUFF THAT WE PROVIDE
THEM.
SO, IT'S NOT NATO, DIRECT NATO
INVOLVEMENT.
IT'S COMPLETELY WITHIN THE
BOUNDS OF HOW THESE THINGS HAVE
UNFOLDED IN PREVIOUS WARS.
WE HAVE TO REMEMBER, THIS IS
NOT THE FIRST TIME WE ARE
FACING OFF AGAINST RUSSIA.
AND, THE QUESTION IS, HOW DO WE
AVOID BILATERAL CONFRONTATION.
RUSSIA KNOCKDOWN ARE PLANES IN
KOREA.
THEY KNOCK DOWN PLANS ON BEHALF
OF THE NORTH KOREAN FORCES.
THEY DID THE SAME THING IN
VIETNAM.
SO, THERE ARE WAYS TO DO THIS
BETTER NOT ESCALATORY.
>> LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT THE
PRESSURE ON RUSSIA.
MANY PEOPLE REMEMBER THE COLD
WAR.
THEY REMEMBER THE END OF THE
COLD WAR.
THEY REMEMBER THAT RUSSIAN
PEOPLES DISSATISFACTION WITH
HOW MUCH MONEY, OR LACK OF
SUCCESS RUSSIA WAS HAVING IN
AFGHANISTAN.
THEY REMEMBER TERRIBLE,
TERRIBLE STANDARDS OF LIVING.
THAT YOUR OWN FAMILY
EXPERIENCE.
IT DOES SEEM, WITH ALL THESE
SANCTIONS AND ALL THESE
COMPANIES PULLING OUT, ALL OF
THE SHIPPING COMPANIES NOT
DOING BUSINESS THERE, VISA AND
MASTERCARD --
IT DOES IS HE THAT THE RUSSIAN
PEOPLE ARE GOING TO GIVE UP ALL
THE GAINS THAT THEY HAVE HAD
SINCE THE END OF THE COLD WAR.
>> ABSOLUTELY, THIS IS GOING TO
BE A REVERSAL TO THAT DEPTHS OF
THE COLD WAR WITH THE SOVIET
UNION WAS ISOLATED FROM THE
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FROM
MEDIA.
THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS FREE
PRESS.
WE WENT FROM AN OLIGARCHY,
WHICH HAD SOME ARTIFACTS OF
DEMOCRACY, TO AN OUTRIGHT
RADICAL DICTATORSHIP.
THERE IS NO SEMBLANCE OF A
FREEDOM.
THE LAWS THAT ARE BEING PASSED
RIGHT NOW, WHERE IF SOMEBODY
STEPS OUT OF LINE, AND SAYS
ANYTHING CRITICAL ABOUT THAT
WAR, THEY CAN BE SENT TO JAIL.
THOSE ARE THE KINDS OF, YOU
KNOW, DRACONIAN TACTICS THAT
THE GOVERNMENT IS USING.
BUT RIGHT NOW, WE ARE SEEING
TESTS.
THIS IS WHAT I WOULD CALL
POLITICAL PROTESTS.
AGAINST THE WAR.
WHEN WE TURN TO SOCIAL ECONOMIC
PROTEST, WHEN PEOPLE CAN'T SEE
THEIR FAMILIES BECAUSE OF THE
ACTIVITIES OF VLADIMIR PUTIN,
FOOD IS NOT COMING IN.
TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, ALTHOUGH
THEY HAVE SOME BREAD BASKETS, OR A LOT OF WHEAT SUPPLIES.
OR A LOT OF WHEAT SUPPLIES.
RIGHT NOW, RUSSIAN ATTACKS ARE
BUT, NONE OF THE COMFORTS THAT
THEY'VE ENDURED FOR THE PAST 30
YEARS.
WHEN THOSE START TO FALL AWAY,
WHEN THE SECURITY SERVICES STOP
GETTING PAID, THAT'S WHEN YOU
START GETTING MAJOR UNREST.
AND, THAT BODY BAGS COMING BACK
FROM UKRAINE, THAT'S GOING TO
HAVE A MULTIPLAYER EFFECT.
IT'S GOING TO BE 11,000 RUSSIAN
SHOULDERS THAT HAVE DIED.
THAT'S A TRAGIC, ENORMOUS
NUMBER OF RUSSIAN SOLDIERS THAT
WERE EXPANDED.
THERE ARE ONLY MORE COMING
BASED ON THE PLANS THAT ARE
UNFOLDING.
IT DOESN'T TAKE A DEEP
INTELLIGENCE WHICH I DON'T HAVE
ACCESS TO.
YOU CAN JUST SEE THAT FACTS
UNFOLD ON THE GROUND.
IT'S CRYSTAL CLEAR WHITE, HOW
OTHER RUSSIANS ARE OPERATING,
WHAT KINDS OF DIRECTIONS
THEY'VE GOTTEN FROM THEIR
LEADERSHIP, PUTIN, AND SO
FORTH.
IT'S GOING TO BE A CATASTROPHE.
>> LIEUTENANT COLONEL ALEXANDER