Do not come, do not come.
As VisualPolitik viewers, you’re probably well aware that relations between the United
States and Latin America have never been easy, they have not always been cordial and it is
not entirely clear which side has been more reluctant to hold hands with the other.
Put another way, this relationship has always been less romantic than a Sylvester Stallone
movie.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, Washington's only interest in its southern neighbors has
been almost exclusively to align them with its own geopolitical and ideological interests.
This was reinforced during the 1960s with the arrival of communism in Cuba in the midst
of the Cold War.
Since then, Washington politicians have not hesitated to support any dictators, paramilitary
groups or evildoers who were willing to bow down to Uncle Sam.
Even so, the fact is that the role or rather, the interference of the United States has
gone through different stages. The latest one, that of former President Donald Trump,
was perhaps one of the most distant phases of all. And he left statements like this one:
("When Venezuela is free, and Cuba is free, and Nicaragua is free, this will become the
first free hemisphere in all of human history. The last hour of socialism in our hemisphere
has arrived [...] The days of socialism are numbered. Not just in Venezuela, but in Nicaragua
and Cuba." - Donald Trump)
However, when it comes to the crunch... How can I say this... Let's just say that Trump
never showed much interest in Latin America. At least not more than a vegan's interest
in a five-pound steak.
But hold on a minute, because now things have changed: there is a new tenant in the White
House. A president with very different ideas and experiences and one who is expected to
try to take on the disputed Latin American competition once again.
That's caused us here at VisualPolitik to ask ourselves a few questions:
What changes might the new administration bring?
Beyond the Mexican issue, which has its own distinctive quirks, what are the key issues
on the table?
And perhaps the most important question of all: What about China, will Latin America
once again become the playing field for a new global contest?
Listen up.
By the way, for those of you who want to know more about Latin America, don't miss Latampolitik,
our newsletter dedicated exclusively to this region. I’ll leave you all the information
in the description.
(HIT THE ROAD)
During the last US presidential election, two out of three Latinos voted for Joe Biden.
However, no, that is far from the main reason why Latin America is expected to gain more
importance in US foreign policy.
The truth is that Joe Biden is the tenant of the Oval Office with the most knowledge
of the region. To give you an idea, during his time as Barack Obama's Vice President
alone, Biden visited the region no less than 16 times.
Never before has a president or vice president visited Latin America so many times.
And... it’s reasonable to assume this is not merely anecdotal. If Donald Trump considered
the region as something insignificant, a sort of pit that only gave him headaches so to
speak, for Biden it is a scenario in play that he also has first-hand knowledge of.
And for better or worse, this has been evident from the very beginning.
For example, he has appointed Juan Sebastían Gonzalez, of Colombian birth, as the new Senior
Director for the Western Hemisphere on the National Security Council, that is, the President's
right hand for Latin American affairs.
But, of course, the changes were not limited to one appointment. Virtually as soon as they
landed at the White House, the new team announced major changes:
First, the Biden Administration decided to abandon Trump's policy of a second axis of
evil comprising Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. This basically means that the Venezuelan or
Cuban issue will no longer be Washington's only concern.
In other words, being part of the common front against this axis of evil will no longer exempt
disapproving countries from possible criticism from the American giant.
For example, this is what happened as soon as the new Secretary of State's team came
to power when they made public that they were closely following the Guatemalan Congress'
attempt to place a judge accused of obstruction of justice on the Constitutional Court; or
when they expressed their concern about the violence against human rights activists in
Colombia.
Secondly, it was announced that Cuba would be removed from the list of state sponsors
of terrorism. We will look at this issue in more detail later.
And the third decision quickly taken by the new government team was to agree to grant
Temporary Protected Status to more than 300,000 Venezuelan exiles.
In other words, all signs indicate that we will see a much more active, demanding and
intrusive Administration in Latin American affairs at the local level.
But, of course, the first two issues, the two star issues on the Latin American agenda
of absolutely every US president for several decades now, are none other than immigration
and the war on drugs. So the first question we can ask ourselves
is, what exactly is the Biden Administration's position on immigration and drug trafficking?
Well... Listen up.
(A BOOM OF IMMIGRATION AND DRUG LORDS)
Donald Trump was one of the most immigration-hostile US presidents in decades. And that's something
that Joe Biden has indicated both actively and passively is going to end.
Of course, the consequence of launching such messages can turn out to be exactly what you
don't want:
(22 March: The saturated southern border: how the first migration crisis of the Biden
era came to be. El País)
The impact of the pandemic in already very poor countries, together with the new position
of the Biden Administration on immigration and some of the measures taken, such as the
suspension of the "Remain in Mexico" policy, which obliged asylum seekers on the United
States border to stay in Mexican territory until they regularized their situation, have
provoked a new migratory wave.
(17 March 2021: "We are on pace to encounter more individuals on the southwest border than
we have in the last 20 years." Alejandro Mayorkas, Homeland Security Secretary).
("They see him as the migrant president, and so many feel they’re going to reach the
United States". Andrés Manuel López Obrador, President of Mexico)
For example, the decision not to deport unaccompanied minors has caused them to arrive en masse.
("The number of unaccompanied minors arriving in the US sets records. Nearly 19,000 unaccompanied
migrant children arrived in the United States after crossing the Mexican border during March.
This is the highest monthly figure ever recorded in the country". France24)
And of course, that's when we start hearing messages like these:
("Don't come," Joe Biden asks migrants. The US president urged undocumented immigrants
who are the protagonists of the latest wave of migration to stay in their countries. DW)
But, the question is, what concrete plans does the new administration have in mind to
deal with this problem? And another important question: Why are we talking about immigration
if this is a video about Biden and Latin America?
Well, the reason has to do with the new White House strategy.
Let's say that the new approach of the US government is that both immigration and, to
a large extent, the proliferation of drug trafficking is essentially related to the
local situation in the place of origin.
That is, a consequence of the lack of opportunities, the absence of security and the lack of strength
of local institutions to deal with the problems.
And the current US administration understands that it is exactly on these points that they
have to work.
For example, when we talk about immigration, apart from Mexico, we have to talk about what
the United States calls "the northern triangle": Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras.
These are three of the poorest countries in Latin America. Countries with very, very serious
problems: very high rates of violence, gangs, massive corruption and even politicians with
direct ties to drug trafficking. For example, there’s the case of the President of Honduras
himself, Juan Orlando Hernandez, of whom we have already spoken on several occasions in
VisualPolitik.
Washington's approach is that if living conditions improve in these countries, then there will
be less irregular immigration and it will also be easier to control drug trafficking.
That is why Biden is betting on resuming the strategy that Barack Obama launched in 2016:
the so-called Alliance for Prosperity in the Northern Triangle. A program that received
$750 million in 2016 but then under the Trump Administration, that amount was reduced year
after year. Even so, the total allocated budget exceeded $2 billion between 2016 and 2020.
Money that was supposedly used to finance projects to boost development and improve
local living conditions. Well, now Joe Biden has presented a plan to
boost this policy again with $4 billion over four years. That’s one billion per year.
At the head of this plan he has placed Vice President Kamala Harris, which is exactly
what Obama did with Biden during his presidency.("When I was vice president, I focused on providing
the help needed to address these root causes of migration. It helped keep people in their
own countries instead of being forced to leave. Our plan worked." Joe Biden)
It seems the problem is that it is not clear that the program really worked. The idea made
sense but the results were very poor.
During 2019 and 2020 immigration to the United States has skyrocketed again and, for example,
in Guatemala, a country that has received more than $1.6 billion in US aid over the
past 10 years, poverty rates have increased, malnutrition is a real problem and corruption
is rampant. Perhaps the problem is that the plan was poorly
thought out. For example, it is estimated that the companies that piloted it kept about
50% of the budget for items such as salaries and bureaucratic expenses.
("It's a business. The same performers win contracts over and over again, despite having
been poor performers in the past, without showing any level of impact and without changing
anything". Carlos Ponce, Professor of Business Management at Columbia University)
But we will talk about all this at length in an upcoming video that we are already preparing
and that we are sure will not leave you indifferent, so, you know, don’t forget to subscribe
to VisualPolitik if you haven’t already done so.
Then, in the case of Colombia, which along with Mexico is the epicenter of the narcotics
problem, Biden has asked Congress to raise annual aid to fight drug trafficking to $453
million annually. An amount substantially higher than the average of $330 million allocated
by Trump during his last three budgets. It’s a funding policy that fits in with
the more interventionist vision that the new White House seems to support in its neighboring
continent.
But, of course, that's not all.
(DREAMS OF CARACAS AND HAVANA)
The policy towards Cuba is always one of the most controversial and politically costly
of all US diplomacy. Don’t forget we only have to look back to the last presidential
elections of 2020, when the Cuban minority in Florida turned its back on the current
President and overwhelmingly favored Trump.
And they did so because Biden is willing to resume the policy of détente [DAY tont] that
was once implemented by Barack Obama and came to be known as "baseball diplomacy".
However, it seems that Biden learned his lesson when Obama reached out to the Castro regime
for change and almost got his hand bitten off. So, it seems that the position will be
rather passive: that is, that it will need to be Havana that makes the first move and
actively demonstrate that they are willing to initiate a certain political and economic
transition.
Still, one thing that the White House certainly does want is to leave the door open.
Biden's team is determined to reverse the Trump Administration's inclusion of Cuba on
the list of terrorist-sponsoring countries in its last days in office.
It is also assumed that they will stop the implementation of the Helms-Burton Act whose
Title III allows US citizens to sue international companies that use or benefit from properties
confiscated by Fidel Castro's regime. This is a law, which has been suspended by all
presidents since 1996 but which Trump decided to re-activate in 2019
In addition, given the poor state of the Cuban economy and in order to promote openness,
Biden's team intends to lift the existing limits on remittances and travel to the island.
And with respect to Venezuela, it’s pretty much the same story – let them be the ones
to make the first move.
But having said that, beyond the increasingly weakened Cuban-Venezuelan bloc and in addition
to the Central American policy, there is another issue of great concern in Washington:
Nothing less than the fear of Chinese influence.
(THE CONQUEST OF THE EAST)
If there is one issue that has been causing alarm bells to ring in Washington lately,
it is precisely that of China's influence on the rest of the world. It does not matter
whether we are talking about the Pacific, Africa, Europe or Latin America.
And the truth is that in recent years, Chinese influence in this region has been on the rise.
China literally devours the region's raw materials and has invested heavily in sectors such as
energy, highways and ports. And that seems to be what Biden now wants to counteract.
("Biden's strategy will be to offer alternative financing for critical infrastructure sectors,
including key areas such as telecommunications” - Benjamin Gedan, director of the Wilson Center's
Latin America Program)
Just a moment, however, because the most important move to counter China's growing influence
in the region and at the same time support the countries closest to the United States
would be none other than to return to the TPP, now known as CPTPP.
This is the most advanced trans-Pacific free trade agreement to which, as we have already
covered in other videos, even the United Kingdom has asked to join. And that is exactly what
is now being considered in Washington. Rejoining this trade agreement would have
two direct consequences: a boost to the Pacific Alliance, whose members are part of this agreement,
and closer ties between the United States and Latin America.
It would also put an end to one of the most characteristic policies of the Trump era:
trade protectionism.
Well, there you have it. These are the main issues on Joe Biden's Latin American agenda.
And having reached this point, here's a question for you: What do you think the Biden Administration
will mean for Latin America? What influence will it have?
Leave us your answer in the comments and, of course, if you found this video interesting,
don't forget to like and subscribe to VisualPolitik.
Thank you very much for watching.
All the best and see you next time