well this is the first set of leading
indicators so which means that this is
the first signal of how much this
disruptions have meant for the economic
activities in China I would expect to
see not a very good number I think most
economists are looking to see that the
extent of a disruption to supply chains
production as well as any economic
activity involving human interaction
could be completely disrupted regardless
of the lunar China New Year for the
whole of the month February probably
that the confidence around the
likelihood of continued disruptions
would have remained so this set of data
is quite important I think given the
market conditions
maybe people are looking for this to be
the real official data signal that the
disruptions will mean that further
policy action may be warranted so we see
a lot over the last 24 hours about how
historic these market moves have been
but place this in context this period of
time since this virus first broke out in
China how does it compare to say the
great financial crisis what's different
over the last five or six weeks compared
to previous periods of unrest certainly
people will be comparing this to SAS
unfortunately the data for PMI for
example doesn't go back to SARS levels
but I would say the extent of a
disruption may be beyond SARS because
not only have we been seen already a
period of economic slowdown heading into
the virus outbreak also the impact that
China has for the rest of global economy
is much much greater compared to 2002
2003 so I would it really compared the
market reaction to financial crisis but
the actual fundamental disruptions from
an economic standpoint will be probably
even greater because this is not only a
demand-side shock is also a supply-side
shock the disruption not only to China
but for the overall economic growth
globally will certainly be yet to see
and I think people have been under
estimating the
mainly because people thought that this
would be a China focus or perhaps maybe
Asia focus story but as we've seen so
far this is likely to be a global story
hi I'm Giovanna barrace and thank you
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