Inside a building on the west side of Tiananmen Square in Beijing, 2,980 members of the National
People’s Conference of China, ratified a plan that would chart the course of its now massive
economy for the next five years. The year was 2021, and of all its fourteen iterations,
this particular five year blueprint was crucial. It needed to jumpstart a rapid
transition towards a zero carbon economy, because for the last two decades China
has been the poster child of runaway emissions. [play clips of people blaming China, China smog,
coal factories in rapid succession]. In the eyes of the world, and especially those in the U.S.,
China is the bogeyman of climate change. It’s easy to continue extracting and burning fossil fuels
on American soil, when you can point across the Pacific and claim that China is doing
far worse. But is China really to blame? That’s a complicated question, and there’s a lot to unpack
with China’s environmental record. Like how its historical emissions stack up to other countries,
what’s China’s toll on the planet right now, and is this country of more than 1.4 billion people
doing anything to curb this graph? So, today we dive into China’s impact on climate change.
This video was made possible by Ground News. Stick around until
the end to find out how to navigate the news with clarity and confidence.
The nature of China’s economy has long been debated. After the communist revolution under Mao,
China seemed well on its way to more advanced forms of socialism. But after Mao’s death and
the reforms of his successor, Deng Xiaoping, the country seemed to turn back towards capitalism.
Today, the waters of China’s economy are murky. Is it capitalist? Is it socialist? Is it somewhere in
between? It seems that depending on the decade China has either been more socialist [play clip
of the 1970s] or less [play clip of the 1990s]. The Chinese Communist Party or CCP for short under
the current president Xi Jinping, however, firmly asserts they operate under socialism with Chinese
characteristics. Allowing for markets and private ownership to exist as long as they were useful in
developing the forces of production. As result the actual workings of Chinese socialism is more
akin to state capitalism, or a market economy controlled and heavily influenced by the ruling
legislative body. Often the over one thousand Chinese billionaires are highlighted to explain
that China functions within very much a capitalist economy, but the reality is much deeper than
that. Because socialism and capitalism, at least according to Marxists, is at its core all about
how production and the workplace is organized. Under socialism, the workplace is democratically
controlled by all laborers involved in production, producing goods for use rather than for profit.
While under capitalism, the workplace is owned and controlled by just a few who decide how production
is run, and seek profits over use. Of course, these are very limited and flawed definitions,
Marx, Engels and their intellectual descendants have spent centuries debating the shapes of these
two modes of production. But for the sake of this video, they are adequate enough. And when
we use these definitions to understand socialism instead of “how much stuff the state does,” it’s
clear that China very much still has a hand in the capitalist mode of production. But China’s
politics and economics are not set in stone– with the right conditions, an upsurge of working class
pressure, China might very well turn accelerate towards a more socialist and ultimately communist
stage of development. Right now, however China’s economy is a mix of privately-owned
and state-owned enterprises that function within a profit oriented market. The ultimate question
though, is whether the Chinese Communist Party is wielding market forces in order to carve an
eventual path towards socialism or whether they’ve lost control of the reins and these market forces
are driving China back towards a more capitalist mode of production? The answer is unclear, but
whichever path China travels down will certainly have massive ramifications on global emissions.
Historical: If you stack up China’s current emissions output
against any other country in the world, it paints a pretty clear picture. Asia’s most populous
country is by far the world’s biggest polluter. But here’s a little secret, that wasn’t always
the case. For most of the last two centuries, ever since fossil fuels were siphoned out of the earth
and burned into the air, China wasn’t even on the map in terms of emissions. England, and then soon
after the United States, spent most of the 19th century, and all of the 20th century pumping
millions of tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere well before China. Emissions that have
locked the world into soaring past the maximum amount of CO2 we can release for 1.5 degrees and
even 2 degrees celsius of warming. When stacked up against those two centuries of emissions,
China’s current pollution seems a little less intense. This doesn’t mean that China’s current
trajectory isn’t worrying, but instead that when we consider carbon emissions, we need to consider
them cumulatively. Carbon dioxide can linger in the atmosphere for 300 to 1000 years. When we look
at it from this perspective, the United States and Europe are the real culprits. They account
for the most cumulative emissions since 1750. The United States alone is responsible for a quarter
of all of the world’s historical emissions, while China has emitted just half of that. So as much as
politicians in the United States like to point at China’s current annual emissions and claim
that China has to be doing more, the reality is that the U.S. and its European counterparts
were the ones that dug us into this deep climate crisis hole in the first place. That being said,
U.S. emissions have been dropping, and it seems like they’re handing off the shovel to China,
who’s now furiously digging us deeper into a hole of climate chaos.
Contemporary:
In 2008, China had a smog problem. The Olympics were right around the corner and Beijing looked
like this. [clips in rapid succession of smog clips]. There were days upon days when people
couldn’t go outside because the air quality was too low. But when you glance back through history,
China’s smog problem was nothing new. Beijing looked very much like LA in 1955 or London
in 1952. China wanted blue skies for the 2008 Olympics, and in an effort to lighten the heavy
pollutants spoiling the air, they tightened air quality standards and restricted car use around
major cities. Initiatives that they continued sporadically, and then in force after 2013. While
still present, China’s smog problem has certainly improved as a result, but the coal plants at
the source of those dark clouds are still firing away. It’s here, at the heart of the coal furnace,
where China’s emissions problem lies. Coal powers China, plain and simple. To fuel the
massive increase in energy consumption over the last two decades, China has turned to mining and
burning coal in its three northern regions of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi. Deemed the
“coal triangle,” these three provinces produce 70% of the country’s 4.07 billion ton yearly coal
output coal according to Carbon Brief. Coal that then gets shipped around the country to fuel heavy
industry like steel production, as well as fuel the explosion of residential energy use. Because,
the fact of the matter is that China’s energy use today is gargantuan. Taken all together,
China’s population uses 43,791 TWh of energy per year, which is almost double that of the United
States. This coal-soaked energy demand means that China’s yearly emissions are substantial. China
generated 11.47 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions in 2021, accounting for 27% of the whole
world’s emissions footprint. For perspective the U.S. accounted for 13.5%. But here’s the thing,
China is also the most populous country in the world. It's home to almost four times more
people than the United States, so when you narrow down into emissions per person, China is actually
pretty efficient. It ranks 48th against the per capita emissions of all other countries. The
United States is 14th. So, while China’s overall emissions and energy usage is certainly large,
we can’t ignore the fact that its people are creating significantly less impact than many
other countries. Especially if you factor in exports. Because China is the factory of the
world. The CO2 churning out its coal plants is attached to phones and shirts that are bought
up by Americans and Europeans thirsty for a good deal. As a piece from Carbon Brief notes– gleaning
information from China’s state media– the county of Dongguan “produces one in every three toys,
one in every five smartphones and one in 10 pairs of trainers globally.” So, when we take exported
goods out of the picture, China’s emissions drop by 14%, while the United States’ footprint rises
7.7%. Regardless of China’s current emissions, per person efficiency, or historical responsibility,
they are still on an unsustainable path. In part this is due to the country constructing
bigger and bigger coal-plants and expanding oil pipeline infrastructure across the country,
negating any renewable technology expansion, which we’ll talk about a little later. In a time when
Chinese leadership needs to be doing the exact opposite, they are increasing fossil fuel output.
Chinese coal production reached a record high in 2022. This is what’s causing a graph like this.
Emissions in China are still on the rise, and they need to be rapidly curbed in order
to stave off catastrophic climate change. A fact which the Chinese government recognizes,
and actually seems to be acting on. The question is, are they doing enough?
What’s China doing about climate change? Flying over the remote Golmud solar park in
the Qinghai province in China might take a while. That’s because it’s the second largest solar panel
installation in the world. And it is just one of many renewable behemoths on Chinese soil that
has come online in the last decade. Installations that are called “clean energy bases,” that seek to
rapidly push China toward a less coal dependent future. And if China’s 2021 five year plan is
any indication, these kinds of solar, wind, and battery technologies are set to blossom throughout
China. Through the plan, President Xi Jinping and his party laid out high-level climate targets,
the specific logistics of which will be planned and coordinated by the 22 provinces throughout
mainland China. But the government’s 14th five year plan didn’t set targets based on absolute
emissions or energy usage, instead they focus on carbon dioxide intensity, or how clean their
energy mix is, and energy intensity. The goal over the next five years is an 18% reduction of CO2
intensity and a 13.5% reduction of energy intensity. These two targets set China up to
reach much longer term targets, which President Xi Jinping announced through a speech in 2020:
“we will reach the peaking of co2 emission before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality before 2060.”
To reach those goals, the government poured $546 billion into low carbon infrastructure during 2022
alone. Infusing renewable projects like the Golmud Solar Park, as well as wind, battery, and electric
vehicle production with financial backing. That’s almost four times what the United States and the
European Union invested into renewables in 2022. And that money is already fueling a surge in
renewable energy production throughout China’s provinces. Since 2011, the share of China’s
electricity that comes from fossil fuels dropped by over 14%. Meanwhile, the percentage of China’s
renewable electricity capacity has doubled over the same period. According to a prediction from
the International Energy Agency, China will install almost half of the world’s renewable
energy capacity over the next five years. But solar and wind capacity is only part
of the battle, China is also leading a massive expansion of battery power, alongside electric
transportation. The state produced 77% of the world’s lithium battery capacity in 2022 and is
predicted to grow to seven times that production by 2027. Meanwhile, the state owned company BYD
has consistently dwarfed all other competitors in global electric vehicle sales. And China has
also spent decades building out the biggest and extensively used high-speed rail networks
in the world. That is a massive infrastructure achievement, especially when combined with the
electrification of public transportation networks in cities like Shenzen. With a fleet of over
16,000 electric buses and 22,000 electric taxis, the city is the gold standard of electrifying
public transit. China is revealing just what is possible in a transition to a zero carbon economy.
And to top it all off the CCP has a long history of tree planting projects. Since 1978, the desert
provinces of China have witnessed the world’s biggest afforestation project. To turn back the
creep of the Gobi Desert, China has planted over 66 million trees, completely terraforming the
landscape. And now, the government has pledged to plant and conserve 70 billion trees by 2030. While
experts remain skeptical about the effectiveness of this project, it’s undoubtedly an impressive
feat of potential carbon sequestration. Despite all of these impressive feats to
ward off emissions, Climate Action Tracker has deemed the Chinese Communist Party’s plans and
policies ``highly insufficient,” arguing that while China’s five year plans and clean energy
projects have led to increased decarbonization, the are ultimately not ambitious enough– and
will lead us on a path towards 3.0 degrees of warming. China is currently the leader of pack
in terms of renewable capacity and zero carbon infrastructure, but in a world where governments
have hemmed and hawed about minimizing carbon emissions, that’s sadly a low bar.
Is this the path?:
Whether through the electrified buses of Shenzen, the high speed rail rolling through Chengdu,
or a gargantuan offshore wind power project in the Taiwan strait China reveals that the building out
a zero carbon electrified world right now is not only possible, but also achievable. They
show that in order to create a rapid transition to a zero carbon energy, we can’t just wait and let
the market decide, we need state intervention– whether that’s through the new $370 billion
U.S. climate package or through China’s massive renewable infrastructural investments. Because,
as IPCC report after IPCC has urged, we need to be taking unprecedented transformational action
right now. Crucially, these massive investments in clean world, though also need to be democratically
planned. Because China also reveals that this massive transition can have a dark side. One
that requires substantial human and material extraction. It reveals that if we are truly to
create a transition that is just and equitable, we need to do more than just replace all fossil fuels
with renewable alternatives, all gas guzzling cars with electric ones. We also need to focus
on understanding and minimizing production while seeking full worker control of our economy. So
that we don’t need to build as much, extract as much, and pollute as much to wrest ourselves
away from fossil fuels. Indeed, China’s massive buildout of battery and renewable technologies
has left it with an insatiable appetite for precious metals and minerals. Minerals that
are most often found in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Chief among those minerals is cobalt. The
journey of that blue rock from the soils of the Congo to the batteries of Beijing is marked with
hyper exploitation, imperialism, and environmental destruction. Which is why next months video I dive
into the rarely told reality of the gruesome conditions powering the renewable revolution.
It’s essentially the part two to this video and if you’re a Nebula subscriber you can watch that
video right now. And while you’re on Nebula you can also get access to exclusive series like
Polymatter’s, “China, Actually,” whichs dives into the reality of China. It’s a must watch if you
enjoyed this video, and does a great job clearing up misconceptions about China. But as much as
these longform videos are important, it’s crucial to stay up to date with what’s happening in the
world right now. like China’s recent approval of increased coal production or the climate protests
in Berlin shutting down major city roads. And one of the best ways to stay up to date with these
ongoing stories is Ground News. I’ve been using Ground News for a long time and really appreciate
how clear and simple it makes the current events. Ground News is a website an app that collects over
50,000 media sources into one place and let’s you compare how headlines are being
covered across the political spectrum. This is crucial for not only understanding exactly how
the news is being covered, but it also helps build your media analysis skills along the
way. So that when you an encounter a media source in the wild you know their biases.
Because Ground News makes it easy to decipher what’s really going on by providing bias,
factuality, and ownership ratings for each source. For literally any story, like the one on China’s
recent approval of increased coal power, I can look at how many sources are reporting it as
well as the political leaning of those that are covering the event. I can also check how reliable
all of those sources are and even who owns them. And when that’s not enough, Ground News allows
you to do side-by-side comparisons of headlines to understand how different media organizations
are portraying the issuse and they even have a handy blindspot tool to help you discover stories
that you might never have seen. Ground News is an extremely powerful tool for navigating the news.
I use it literally every day. So if you want more clarity in your news, head to ground.news/occ or
click the link in the description and subscribe to make media a whole lot more transparent in
your everyday life. Otherwise, consider watching another OCC video on radical climate futures,
or support OCC on Nebula by clicking the link on screen right now, and I will see you next month!