>>> AS DEMOCRATS DEBATE THE BEST PERSON TO TAKE ON DONALD TRUMP,
DOES IT EVER FEEL LIKE THERE ARE
TOO MANY CHOICES IN THE FIRST
PLACE?
PLACE? CHOICE IS SUPPOSED TO BE A GOOD
THING.
THING. IN COMMERCE IT CAN BE A LUXURY
IN AND OF ITSELF.
THE ABUNDANCE OF DOZENS OF
TOMATO SAUCES CAN FEEL LIKE OUR
SUPERMARKETS ARE WINNING.
A POINT THAT THE ICON CLASTIC
AUTHOR MALCOLM GLAD WELL HAS
CITED.
CITED. >> TODAY IF YOU GO TO THE
SUPERMARKET, YOU LOOK AT HOW
MANY RAGUS THERE ARE, DO YOU
KNOW HOW MANY?
36.
36. IN SIX VARIETIES.
CHEESE, LITE, ROBUSTO, RICH AND
HEARTY, OLD WORLD TRADITIONAL,
EXTRA CHUNKY GARDEN.
>> GLADWELL HAS FAMOUSLY
CHALLENGED COMMON PREMISES ABOUT
HOW WE MAKE DECISION AND WHY
CERTAIN THINGS CATCH ON.
WHAT WOULD HE SAY ABOUT THE
DEMOCRATS’ PREDICTIONAMENT OF SO
MANY CHOICES TO TAKE ON ONE OF
THE MOST CONTROVERSIAL
PRESIDENTS EVER?
PRESIDENTS EVER? LET’S ASK HIM.
THE "NEW YORKER" JOURNALIST AND
AUTHOR OF FIVE HUGE BEST-SELLERS
INCLUDING "THE TIPPING POINT" IS
HERE.
HERE. >> THANK YOU, ARI, GLAD TO BE
HERE.
HERE. WHERE DID YOU FIND THAT?
THAT’S SO LONG AGO, THAT’S A
DIFFERENT HAIR ERA.
>> WHICH HAIR ERA?
YOUR EXTRA CHUNKY GARDEN PERIOD.
>> A BETTER HAIR ERA.
>> ANYONE WITH A STRONG AVENUE
ROW LOOKS CONFIDENT.
>> YEAH, I WOULD SAY THAT.
>> NO MATTER WHAT YOU’RE DOING.
>> YEAH, YEAH.
>> YOU COULD BE GARDENING OR
GIVING A SPEECH.
>> I WAS CHANNELING MY INNER
SHAFT, I BELIEVE, IN THAT.
>> THE SHAFT MOVIE IS COMING
OUT, MAYBE YOU BRING IT BACK.
WE’LL CALL SAM EWE JACKSON FOR
YOU.
YOU. WE’RE CURIOUS WHAT YOU THINK.
BECAUSE SO MUCH OF YOUR WRITING
AND STUDY HAS BEEN ABOUT,
WHATEVER YOU CAN’T TO CALL IT,
DECISION-MAKING
DECISION-MAKING DECISION-MAKING.
DECISION-MAKING. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR DEMOCRATS,
YES, OF COURSE EVERYONE HAS THE
RIGHT TO RUN.
WHEN THERE’S SO MANY CHOICES?
>> YEAH, SO THE -- I THOUGHT I’D
GIVE YOU A VERY SIMPLE ANALOGY
WHICH COMES FROM THE WORLD OF
PSYCH METRICS.
PSYCH METRICS. IMAGINE I LINED UP A SERIES --
INFINITE SERIES, 20 GLASSES OF
WATER WITH SUGAR IN THEM.
EACH GLASS HAS A DIFFERENT
AMOUNT OF SUGAR IN IT.
SO ONE GLASS IS HALF SUGAR,
ONE’S 40%, ONE’S ALL THE WAY
DOWN THE LINE.
AND I ASKED YOU TO DRINK THEM
ALL AND RANK THEM IN ORDER OF
THEIR SUGAR CONCENTRATION.
RIGHT?
RIGHT? RANK THEM SWEET TOAST
NONSWEETEST.
NONSWEETEST. CAN YOU DO THAT ACCURATELY IF I
GIVE YOU 20 CHOICES?
THE ANSWER IS, WELL --
>> THE ANSWER IS NO.
THIS IS LIKE THE STARBURST TEST.
WHEN I USED TO DO LONG ROAD
TRIPS, YOU CAN DISTINGUISH
BETWEEN THE CHERRY AND THE
STRAWBERRY IF THEY’RE YOUR FIRST
TWO.
TWO. BUT AFTER 15 STARBURSTS, YOU
CAN’T.
CAN’T. >> SO THERE’S A NATURAL LIMIT.
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN FIVE AND
SEVEN.
SEVEN. WHERE ALMOST ALL HUMAN BEINGS
START TO BREAK DOWN AND THEY CAN
NO LONGER RELIABLY DISTINGUISH
BETWEEN TWO COMPETING CHOICES.
SO YOU CAN -- IF I GAVE YOU SIX
OF THOSE GLASSES, YOU COULD
PROBABLY RANK THEM IN ORDER.
YOU START TO MAKE ERRORS AT
SEVEN.
SEVEN. IF I GIVE YOU TEN, BASICALLY YOU
THROW YOUR HANDS UP.
>> THIS IS A BRAIN FACT?
>> THIS IS A BRAIN FACT.
SO SAYING IT’S TRUE FOR SOUNDS,
IT GIVE YOU A SERIES OF TONES.
♪ DO DO DO DO DO DO ♪
HOW ACCURATELY CAN YOU
DISTINGUISH THEM?
DISTINGUISH THEM? AT A CERTAIN POINT IT STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN.
BREAK DOWN. HERE I’M MAKING THE KIND OF
LUDICROUS, UNCALLED FOR LEAP FOR
WHICH I’M FAMOUS.
I’M GOING TO SUGGEST THAT MAYBE
THERE’S AN ANALOGY HERE WITH THE
LINEUP OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES.
>> ARE YOU DUBBING YOURSELF AN
INTELLECTUAL LONG JUMPER?
>> WELL, YOU KNOW.
AFTER A CERTAIN POINT WHEN YOU
HEAR THAT YOU HAVE MADE LEAPS
THAT ARE UNCALLED FOR OFTEN
ENOUGH, YOU START TO BELIEVE IT.
>> YOU HAVE TO JUST HANG OUT
WITH MORE RAPPERS.
YOU KNOW, THEY SAY, DAVEY SAYS
THANK YOU, YOU KNOW YOU’RE DOING
SOMETHING RIGHT WHEN THEY HATE
YOU.
YOU. >> THEY DON’T HATE --
>> YOU HAVE SOME HATERS.
YOU’VE SOLD A LOT OF BOOKS, YOU
HAVE NO HATERS?
>> NO ONE HATES ME, NO ONE HATES
ME.
ME. MY POINT IS I WONDER AT A
CERTAIN POINT WHETHER IF I ASKED
YOU TO RANK HOW MANY?
>> 23.
>> 23. >> IT CHANGES BY THE DAY.
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. 23.
23. YOU’RE SAYING, HERE’S A GLASS OF
SUGAR WATER WITH UNIVERSAL PREK.
HERE’S A GLASS OF SUGAR WATER
WITH UNIVERSAL PREK IF A STATE
PROGRAM MATCHES THE FUNDS.
AT A CERTAIN POINT EVEN THE
PEOPLE WHO WANT TO DRINK THAT
SUGAR WATER HAVE A HARD TIME
TELLING IT APART?
>> YES.
>> YES. I DON’T THINK ANYONE OUTSIDE OF
SOME KIND OF UBER POLITICS IN
OTHER WORDS CAN ACTUALLY RANK
THESE 23 PEOPLE IN ORDER OF
THEIR OWN PREFERENCE.
IT’S JUST IMPOSSIBLE.
SO THERE HAS TO BE SOME -- SO
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU DO GET
PEOPLE -- GIVE PEOPLE TOO MANY
CHOICES, WHEN YOU THEY’D THOSE
NATURAL LIMITS?
NATURAL LIMITS? THEY START TO MAKE BAD
DECISIONS.
DECISIONS. >> THIS IS INTERESTING.
YOU’RE SAYING THIS FROM A
POSITION OF ANALYZING THE
NUMERICAL CHALLENGE, WHICH IS
FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT THAN THE
WAY WE AS VOTERS AND CITIZENS
AND JOURNALISTS TYPICALLY LOOK
AT THE FIELD.
WE KEEP LOOK AT THE FIELD AS IF
WE’RE IN AN UNDER SEVEN
SITUATION.
SITUATION. AND WE’RE COMPARING THEM.
YOU’RE SAYING THAT YOU THINK THE
SCIENCE YOU’VE STUDIED SHOWS
WHEN YOU’RE OVER SEVEN OR TEN --
>> YOU GET OVERWHELMED.
I’M NOT SAYING -- ALL OF US HAVE
A FAVORITE, PROBABLY.
BUT IF YOU’RE THINKING ABOUT
THIS FROM A PURELY RATIONAL
PERSPECTIVE AND YOU WOULD
LEGITIMATELY LIKE TO KNOW WHO IS
THE BEST CANDIDATE, WHO IS THE
CANNED DID IT WHO BEST MATCHES
YOUR OWN SENSE OF WHERE THE
COUNTRY OUGHT TO BE GOING?
IT IS ALL BUT IMPOSSIBLE WITH A
FIELD THIS LARGE.
SO I HAPPEN TO BE A HUGE FAN OF
JOHN HICKENLOOPER, BUT I IMAGINE
MANY VOTERS CANNOT RELIABLY
DISTINGUISH JOHN HICKENLOOPER
FROM MICHAEL BENNET.
>> I PREFERRED HIM --
>> IS IT MICHAEL BENNET?
>> YEAH.
>> YEAH. >> SEE?
>> SEE? >> I PREFERRED GOVERNOR HICKEN
HOOPER IN HIS BIG AFRO ERA.
>> DID HE HAVE A BIG AFRO AS
WELL?
WELL? >> NO.
>> NO. >> SEE, THE POINT, I CAN’T KEEP
IT STRAIGHT.
IT STRAIGHT. >> IS THERE AN IMPLICATION HERE?
I KNOW YOU DIDN’T SIGN UP TO
HELP THE POLITICAL PARTIES
REWRITE THEIR --
>> YOU KNOW I CAN’T VOTE, I’M KA
DADE
DADE -- CANADIAN.
-- CANADIAN. >> WE DON’T HOLD IT AGAINST YOU.
THE POLITICAL PARTY RULES MAKE
DISTINCTIONS.
DISTINCTIONS. WHEN THE DEMOCRATS DEALT WITH
THE REVOLT IN THEIR PARTY TO
MAKE CERTAIN STATES MORE
IMPORTANT, IT HAD PROS AND CONS.
IOWA FIRST.
IOWA FIRST. WE’RE ALL LIVING IN THAT WORLD.
NOW YOU HAVE RULES ABOUT DEBATE.
THIS FITS WITH THE POLITICAL
CULTURE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY,
HAVE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF VERY
WIDE EARLY DEBATE STAGE.
MANY PEOPLE LIKE THAT FOR
CHOICE.
CHOICE. DOES YOUR ANALYSIS HERE SUGGEST
THAT EVENTUALLY IT WOULD BE
BETTER FOR THE VOTERS TO NARROW
THAT IN SOME WAY IF YOU WANTED
TO WRITE THE RULES THAT WAY?
>> FROM A SERIOUS PERSPECTIVE,
THE FIRST THING TO THINK ABOUT
WITH LARGE FIELDS IS CHANGE THE
WAY THAT WE VOTE.
SO YOU SHOULD GO TO SOME KIND OF
LIMITED RANKED VOTING.
IN OTHER WORDS, I NEED TO GIVE
MY FIRD, SECOND, THIRD, FOURTH,
FIFTH CHOICE.
FIFTH CHOICE. I WOULDN’T GO BEYOND FIVE.
BECAUSE IT’S SO CLEAR THAT IF
YOU JUST VOTE FOR ONE PERSON,
WE’RE GOING TO HAVE THIS KIND OF
CRAZY -- WHAT WE’RE REALLY
INTERESTED IN IS FINDING THOSE C
ACCEPTABLE TO THE LARGEST NUMBER
OF VOTERS.
OF VOTERS. .
. YOU DON’T DO THAT USING A
CONVENTIONAL SYSTEM.
CONVENTIONAL SYSTEM. I WANT TO KNOW SOMEONE’S SECOND
AND THIRD CHOICE.
>> I HEAR YOU SAYING THE
ORIGINAL SYSTEM DEVISED
THOUSANDS OF YEARS AGO TO PICK
ONE OUT OF TWO BASED ON WHAT WE
HAVE LEARNED IS IS POORLY
APPLIED TOAPPLY
APPLIED TOAPPLY ED TODAY.
ED TODAY. >> IT DOESN’T WORK WHEN YOU HAVE
23.
23. YOU HAVE TO THINK OF MORE
INNOVATIVE AND FRIVOLOUS NOTE,
PERHAPS WE SHOULD BE CREATIVE ON
HOW TO WHITTLE THE FIELD DOWN.
WE COULD HAVE DUALS.
WE COULD PLAY BASKETBALL.
MY PERSONAL WOULD BE A 5K RACE.
HOW INTERESTING WOULD THAT BE?
I WOULD BE FAVORABLY DISPOSED TO
THE CANDIDATE WHO WON THE 5 K
RACE.
RACE. >> WHAT WOULD THAT TELL YOU?
>> HOW ABOMINATION OF
DESOLATIONLY BADLY THEY ITMENT
THE JOB.
THE JOB. SOME DEGREE OF STRATEGY.
WHO WOULD WIN A 5 K?
I’M A RUNNER SO I’M AWARE THAT
HE’S SLOW.
HE’S SLOW. >> IF I WERE GUESSING AND I’M
OUTSIDE OF MY EXPERTISE HERE, I
WOULD GUESS KLOBUCHAR AND
BUTTIGIEG WOULD BE PRETTY GOOD.
>> HE LOOKS LIKE THE A RUNNER
AND HE WAS MILITARY.
>> JOHN McCAIN WOULD BE A GOOD
RUNNER LATE INTO LIFE.
>> I’M NOTTEN HAPPY WITH THOSE
TWO CHOICES.