US President-elect Donald Trump said the United States did not necessarily have to stick to
its position that Taiwan is part of "One China”.
This is one of the most controversial assertions by him, and has the potential to start hostilities
between two of the most powerful nations in the world.
In this video, Defense Updates looks into the One China policy in details, analyzes
the key aspects, and examines its potential to even result in war between the 2 nations.
The policy can be traced back to 1949, and the end of the Chinese civil war.
The defeated Nationalists retreated to Taiwan and set up their own government, while the
victorious Communists declared the People's Republic of China.
Both sides said they represented all of China.
One China policy is the diplomatic acknowledgement of the Chinese position that there is only
one China in the world, and Taiwan is a part of that China.
Under the policy, the US has formal ties with China rather than the island of Taiwan, which
China sees as a breakaway province to be reunified with the mainland one day.
The policy of acknowledging China's position on this issue is not only a key cornerstone
of Sino-US relations; it is also fundamental bedrock of Chinese policy-making and diplomacy.
While the U.S. does not recognize Taiwan as an independent nation, it sold the island
$12 billion worth of arms since the 1970s as part of an agreement that commits Washington
to helping Taiwan defend itself.
Although Taiwan's government claims it is an independent country officially called the
"Republic of China", any country that wants diplomatic relations with Mainland China must
break official ties with Taipei.
It has resulted in Taiwan's diplomatic isolation from the international community.
So basically, China feels there is a "one country, two systems" structure in place at
the moment and that Taiwan will eventually be folded back into China entirely, while
Taiwan maintains it should have its own government and become its own country.
Donald Trump spoke to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, few days back.
The call between Trump and Tsai, is the first publicly reported direct contact between a
United States President or President-elect and Taiwan's leader in 40 years.
With this he not only broke decades of U.S. protocol, he also opened the door to potential
trouble with China — which has long refused to recognize the controversial island as a
separate nation.
Further Trump set off a diplomatic firestorm when he told Fox News, “I fully understand
the One-China policy, but I don’t know why we have to be bound by a ‘one China’ policy
unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade.”
Taiwan — located just over 100 miles off China, across the Taiwan Strait — has a
population of more than 23 million people, and is an economic powerhouse despite its
history of political woes.
Over the decades Taiwan has turned into a vibrant democracy with freedom of the press
and speech, unlike China, which is tightening its grip on dissent.
Attitudes towards China are changing in Taiwan.
Polls show that over the last two decades, many in Taiwan have come to identify themselves
as Taiwanese, instead of Chinese or both Taiwanese and Chinese.
There are 2 ways of looking into these developments:
1. Taiwan is democracy and shares values accepted by US.
President-elect Donald Trump is genuinely in favor of Taiwan’s stand, and is ready
for a long drawn confrontation with China on this.
2. China has been very aggressive in recent times.
It has constructed military infrastructure in disputed islands of South China Sea, and
has also out rightly rejected the verdict of Hague Tribunal.
Trump’s comment seemingly indicates that he is interested in using One China policy
as a chip, to correct Chinese behavior by touching China’s raw nerve.
The problem with Trump’s bargaining-chip comment is that if Chinese leaders think Trump
is not serious about supporting Taiwan because it’s only a chip, then they would know that
in the long term they wont have much problem, and will continue to be belligerent.
China flew a long-range bomber capable of carrying nuclear weapons over the South China
Sea, which is seen as a response to Trump’s comment.
Trump’s unpredictability and out of box statement is making matters interesting, even
before he has officially got into White House.
Let us see how things pan out in coming days.