China plans to invade Taiwan
But are the people of Taiwan ready?
And what can they learn from Ukraine?
Welcome to China Uncensored. I’m Shelley Zhang, filling in for Chris Chappell.
Tensions continue between Mainland China and Taiwan. Especially after talk that US
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi might visit. Yes, yes it angers China, we know already.
But it’s not going to spark a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Because that was already going to happen.
Will China invade Taiwan?
Do fish have gills? Is TikTok sending all of your data to mainland China? Yes, yes, and yes.
At least the war in Ukraine is forcing China to rethink its invasion plans.
According to CIA Director Bill Burns, China appears to be re-evaluating its existing
invasion strategies as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to be stuck in the mud.
So what does this mean for Taiwan?
It means it has a little more time to prepare.
But that doesn’t mean it’ll be easy.
Taiwan can’t just copy Ukraine’s civil defense blueprint.
Yes, Taiwan has a well-equipped military, including a lot of weapons it bought from the US.
And it has an army reserve force.
But recent changes to both gun ownership laws and the structure of national defense
put Taiwan at a disadvantage compared to Ukraine. Those things actually make it harder for Taiwan
to quickly mobilize a citizen-based defense force.Even if Taiwan’s Ministry of National
Defense wanted to raise a citizen defense force, they don’t have the authority to do that.
That’s because matters of civil defense fall to the country’s National Police Agency,
and the police are less-than-enthusiastic about arming people.
“Taiwan’s gun laws are strict and ownership is among the lowest per capita in the world.”
A civil defense expert told The Diplomat that the laws are so restrictive, that
“To buy a spearfishing gun, you need permission from the police station.
It’s like a joke. The law for recreational devices hasn’t been modified for 50 years.”In other words,
the chance of Taiwan’s police building a cohesive civil defense force—in
the style of Ukraine’s civil defense force—is basically nil.
So Taiwan’s citizens are taking matters into their own hands. The Ukraine war is inspiring
many of them to prepare for the inevitable Chinese invasion, despite the challenges.
Some of them are training with airsoft guns. Those are the ones that fire small plastic pellets.
Others are getting involved in civil defense training,
learning how to rescue or provide medical aid to people wounded in a disaster.
“Since the war in Ukraine began, the demand for civil defense training has skyrocketed in Taiwan.”
On the military side, troops in Taiwan have been getting creative with
much of their military hardware, particularly surplus items sent from the United States.
On social media, Taiwanese ground crews for the formerly American-owned
OH-58 Kiowa Warrior scout helicopters
have resorted to seeking tech support from American vets on how to properly maintain them.
American vets have been more than willing to help out by sharing decades of experience
with the Taiwanese troops in Kiowa helicopter-specific Facebook groups.
Despite these shortcomings, Taiwan is no slouch when it comes to national defense.
The island nation held intense drills in early July,
simulating missile attacks and mass casualty scenarios.
And last week, Taiwan held massive military
drills—mobilizing fighter jets, tanks, and munitions experts.
While the Ministry of National Defense is staying on its toes,
one thing is becoming apparent. While the war in Ukraine is currently getting
China to rethink its possible strategies, Taiwan has to rethink their own as well.
And now it’s time for me to answer a question from a fan who supports China Uncensored on Patreon.
Today’s question comes from Li Yang:
“What are the chances of CCP banning abortion and contraception
as a follow up to their failed 3-child policy?”
Great question. You’re right that the three-child policy will fail—in the sense that simply allowing
people to have more children won’t fix China’s population crisis as quickly as leaders hope.
Not with the population growth rate at 61-year lows.
So yes, the Chinese Communist Party will eventually seek more extreme measures.
Just a few years ago, it was common to see billboards like this,
advertising safe and easy, pain-free abortions.
Not as much anymore.
Now, pain-free births are to be promoted, according to Chinese state-run media.
Because that will encourage women to have more babies.
I’m not sure that’s what’s keeping people from having more kids.
Anyway, I wouldn’t be surprised if within a few years, abortions may not be technically banned,
but you’ll need a family planning permit to get an abortion,
just like you need a permit to have a baby.
I don’t think the Communist Party will outright ban birth control, though.
They don’t want unmarried people having kids.
In fact, the children of single women have a hard
time even getting access to public school or health care.
What the Chinese Communist Party wants is for couples to get married young, and have babies in
their 20s, and in specific quantities. So they’ll use a variety of incentives, and if that doesn’t
work, threats, to get people to do just that. It’s all about control, and they’ll never give that up.
Thanks for your question, Li Yang.
And thanks to everyone who contributes on Patreon.
China Uncensored is mostly funded by direct viewer support.
Visit Patreon.com/ChinaUncensored and contribute a dollar or more per episode.
And you’ll get cool perks, like being able to ask us questions that we’ll answer on the show.
Once again, I’m Shelley Zhang. Thanks for watching China Uncensored.