Russia’s in big trouble, and it’s not just because they are losing the war in Ukraine. Years before
Vladamir Putin came to power and recklessly invaded Ukraine, Russia’s future was in jeopardy
due to an unexpected factor. Its population was decreasing. A perfect storm of economic hardships,
disease, and war has caused serious demographic problems for Russia. And when we look closely at
what is happening within its borders today, the future looks bleak for the Russian Federation.
Putin has known for a long time that Russia has a population crisis. When he came to
power in the year 2000, he almost immediately began brainstorming ways to increase Russia’s
population. In Putin’s mind, more people equals more power, and therefore, he needed to get the
population growing as quickly as possible. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Russia went
into an economic crisis. It’s almost always inevitable that when a country’s economy tanks,
birth rates go with it. We will examine why this phenomenon occurs later on when we look
at what current economic sanctions and the war in Ukraine are doing to family planning in Russia.
As the 90s progressed, Russia's birth rates remained low. This affected the future,
as shown by the low number of people who currently fall within the 25 to 35-year-old
demographic in the country. And since this is the age group of people who usually start families,
there are not enough individuals to significantly boost the birth rate
and grow the population. However, this is not the only problem. The decisions
made by Putin over the years have made Russia’s demographic crisis even worse.
For years, Putin has been declaring that he will fix the population growth problem,
and for years he has failed. Putin has even said that “saving the people of Russia is our
top national priority,” referring to the stagnation of population growth. In order
to try and stimulate this growth and improve Russia’s predicament, Putin decided to throw
money at the problem without any real plan. Unsurprisingly, this tactic failed miserably.
So, let’s look at what led to this demographic crisis, what Putin tried to do to fix it,
and why this problem is about to get so much worse for Russia.
When the Soviet Union fell, mortality rates significantly exceeded birth rates in Russia,
which led to population decline. To put this into perspective, before World War II,
the population of the Soviet Union was around 195 million people. After the devastating consequences
of the war, the population shrunk to around 170 million people. These numbers include nations
that were formerly a part of the Soviet Union but are independent of Russia today. However,
what these statistics show is the magnitude at which life was lost due to World War II.
As the USSR grew during the Cold War, the population within its borders also grew. By
1989 around 287 million people were living in the Soviet Union. However, after its collapse,
Russia was left with only 148 million citizens. If we focus on the data of the
region that would become present-day Russia during this same time period,
we see that its population was growing throughout the Soviet Era as well.
When we look strictly at the Russian population, it increased from around 120 million in 1960 to
just over 148 million by 1990. Unfortunately for Russia, this is when things start to go wrong.
By the early 2000s, the Russian population had declined by around 3 million people. In 2007,
Russia’s population was under 143 million people. For a man who said he would improve
Russia’s demographics in the early 2000s, Putin had failed miserably.
Vladimir Putin tried to make changes to the Russian healthcare system, such as updating
hospitals to curb the country's mortality rate. He also launched campaign after campaign to increase
birth rates by setting up financial aid programs for anyone looking to start or grow their family.
This included a family allowance system that gave bonuses to larger families. Basically,
Putin was incentivizing family growth in every way he could short of forcing women to have children.
In his speeches, Putin talked about family values and the importance of having a large household.
Although this is a little ironic since Putin only has two daughters that we know of. However,
it has been suggested that he has at least two other children who he had with his mistresses.
If Putin wanted to lead by example, he would have shown the country that large,
close-knit families were the future of Russia. However, he rarely talks about
his daughters and doesn’t really portray himself as a family man.
When promoting large families did not achieve the desired results,
Putin turned towards migration policies that would entice more people to move to Russia.
You’re probably thinking that Russia would be the last place anyone would ever want to move to,
but large populations of immigrant workers from Central Asia did migrate to Russia,
where they became naturalized citizens as long as they could speak Russian. Putin also gave out
Russian passports to people in surrounding countries just to boost population numbers.
These strategies seemed to help slightly, as by 2018, the population of Russia reached
around 144.5 million people. However, these numbers may have likely been inflated and
don’t really paint a clear picture of what was actually happening within the Russian
Federation. This is because as 2019 began and the COVID-19 pandemic ravaged the world,
the Russian population was hit particularly hard. Currently, it is estimated that there
have been around 18.5 million infections in Russia since the start of the pandemic,
and approximately 807,000 people have died due to coronavirus-related complications.
This dealt another huge blow to the already declining population of the country. Yet,
rather than focusing on his own people and helping the nation’s population bounce back
from the pandemic, Putin decided to do the unthinkable: he invaded Ukraine.
War is never good for population growth for obvious reasons. When a country is at war, its
citizens die. This is exactly what is happening in Ukraine. Even though the pandemic ravaged Russia,
Putin sent more young men to die in a pointless war, worsening the population crisis. Sources
estimate that around 100,000 Russians have lost their lives as a result of the invasion
of Ukraine. This includes both soldiers and civilians. For a nation that is trying to grow its
population, losing thousands of lives each month as a result of war is just not the way to go.
Also, the fact that the most of the Russians who are dying are males between the ages of 20 and
40 is a huge problem for the country. It’s this age group that will determine whether the next
generation grows in size or not. Since these men are the ones who need to father children in order
to increase birth rates and population size, the fact that they are the main demographic dying is
detrimental to the future of Russia. Every soldier that dies is a man who will never father a child.
The math seems pretty simple, but Putin just doesn’t seem to get it.
He is conscripting hundreds of thousands of young men to fight and die in Ukraine. It’s
clear that forcing Ukraine back into what he sees as a new Russian Empire
is much more important to him than the future of the country itself. Although,
Putin may just be crazy enough to believe that his war is actually helping the population of Russia.
It’s very possible that one of the reasons Vladamir Putin declared war on Ukraine was to
incorporate its population into the Russian demographics. Ukraine has over 43 million
people living within its borders. Putin may believe that if he can integrate Ukraine and
all of its citizens into Russia, then it will not only increase the country’s population,
but it will allow for population growth in the future. However,
due to the number of casualties and displaced people due to the war,
capturing Ukraine almost certainly won’t have the effect that Putin is hoping for.
As crazy as it sounds, the war in Ukraine may actually be less about territory and
more about people. Putin believes many of the inhabitants in Ukraine are ethnically Russian and,
therefore, can be integrated into the Russian population. This may seem like
the train of thought of a raving lunatic rather than the leader of a world power,
but as Vladamir Putin has shown time and again, he is actually insane.
One of the most tragic things about the war is that Russia has been deporting
captured Ukrainians out of their country and forcing them to live in Russia. Although,
“live” may not be the right term. Some accounts suggest that Ukrainians who have been sent to
Russia are now working in facilities where they produce weapons and products to aid in the war
effort. It’s reminiscent of the work camps set up by the Nazis during World War II, and when we look
at what Putin is doing in Ukraine, this is not the only correlation between him and Adolf Hitler.
In the last Russian census, the government counted the 2.4 million inhabitants living in the Donbas
region of Ukraine as part of its population, even though the region was illegally annexed.
The rest of the world does not count these Ukrainians as part of Russia’s demographics,
but Putin doesn’t care. This is because it creates the illusion that the Russian
population is growing rather than declining. But statistics don’t lie, and we know that
the birthrate needed to increase Russia’s population is nowhere near where it needs to be.
As a general rule of thumb, the fertility rate of a population needs to be around 2.1
children per woman in order to keep a population stable. This means that fertility rates need to
be above this number if a country is to grow. Currently, it’s estimated that the fertility
rate in Russia is around 1.5 births per woman, and it only appears to be getting lower. What
this means is that there is no hope for Russia to grow its population in the near future. And
as the war with Ukraine continues, the fertility rate will only continue to get lower and lower.
The reasons for this are twofold. The first we already discussed:
if men are being shipped off to fight a war and are dying,
they are not reproducing. However, the other reason is a much more economical one.
One of the main factors causing the demographic problems in Russia is that its economy is in
shambles. When Vladamir Putin came to power in the early 2000s, he promised the Russian
people that he would improve the economic might of the country. In exchange, all he asked was
that Russian citizens trust him blindly and not question any of his decisions. For a few years,
Putin delivered on his promise, and the Russian people were somewhat content. But
this didn’t last very long, and by 2007, the Russian economy was in decline once again.
However, Putin still declared that the Russian people must take his word as gospel. The problem
was that when times get hard, and a nation’s economy isn’t doing well, birth rates begin
to decline. Raising a child is a heavy financial burden. Raising multiple children only increases
this burden exponentially. Therefore, if people don’t have a reliable source of income or feel
that times are uncertain, they will put off having children until things feel more stable.
There is nothing that creates more uncertainty than war. So,
by invading Ukraine, Putin has literally brought population growth to a standstill
in Russia. With every day that the war continues and economic sanctions crush the Russian economy,
people will push off having children for longer and longer. That’s if they
have them at all. Almost all researchers and population analysts believe that birth rates
in Russia will continue to decrease for as long as the war rages on. This means that
the demographic problem in Russia will only be getting worse for the foreseeable future.
Then there’s the very real possibility that Russia will lose the war. If this happens, the crushing
economic sanctions will likely continue for some time. The Russian people will suffer greatly,
and no one will have children if they are in poverty. It almost seems unbelievable that Putin
could be so reckless with his own nation’s future, but this just confirms how much of a psychopath he
is. However, Putin may be doubling down on his war efforts with the expectation that a victory
over Ukraine will both forcibly add more people to the Russian population and cause its citizens to
celebrate, resulting in a baby boom. This seems like very wishful thinking, but at this point,
it’s hard to put anything past Vladamir Putin. Another problem leading to population decline in
Russia is emigration. It’s estimated that over one million people have fled the country since
the war with Ukraine started. People have done this for various reasons. Many young men don’t
want to be drafted to fight in Putin’s pointless war and therefore have escaped to nations like
Kazakhstan. Other people have become fed up with the stagnation of the Russian economy and others
have left for the United Arab Emirates and Israel to seek better opportunities.
All of these factors together have literally created the perfect storm to decimate Russia’s
population in the future. It’s estimated by many that the population could fall to as low
as 130 million people by the year 2050, and if things don’t change, this rapid decline could
continue. The biggest thing standing in the way of Russia increasing its population and thriving as a
country is Putin. And it might not be much longer before the majority of Russians realize this.
For anyone living in Russia who wants to see their country grow and thrive in the future,
Vladimir Putin should be public enemy number one. Unfortunately,
he has pretty much coup-proofed his government and has put a number of different agencies in
place to ensure there will never be a popular uprising while he is in power.
This must be heartbreaking for any freethinking Russian who wants real change in their nation.
Putin may not be a very smart man; but he is a ruthless one. It’s highly probable
someone in the government warned him about the impending crisis a war would have on
Russia’s population. But he didn’t listen. Instead, Putin did what Putin always does:
whatever he wants. The shrinkage of the 25 to 35-year-old demographic in Russia was initially
caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the economic crisis that ensued. However,
it’s the death of Russian men and the economic decline as a result of the war with Ukraine
that is currently exacerbating this population problem. And Putin holds almost all of the blame.
Now watch “How Would US Respond To Russian Nuclear
Attack in Ukraine War.” Or check out “Why Putin's Invasion of Ukraine is a Failure.”