Thank You Danny Matthew for coming on
and sharing your thoughts and crystal
ball gazing about the impact the wider
impact that a something like Kovan 19
and 1/2 Danny you wrote about this this
week and talked about how the the
massive the carrot catastrophic flow of
18 19 19 18 19 actually perhaps didn't
have know as wide an influence as long
as firstly because it's been quite a lot
of books about about it and some of them
sort of say this is how it changed the
world what struck me was how little it
changed our political narrative in other
words we talk about all the great events
of that a century the Holocaust
obviously and Mao and his great leap
backwards and Stalin and his purges and
the famines and we don't include in that
what was unquestionably one of the
bullet was the biggest killer and
unquestionably one of the great events
of the century almost forgotten and it
was and so it was there early in the
shadow of the war in a sense yes so it's
true so a hundred thousand American
troops died in the First World War
forty thousand of them were killed by
the Spanish flu but so unquestionably it
sort of melded together and when some of
the earliest people died didn't quite
create the the the fuss it would have
done because so many other people were
dying in the same hospitals I think that
is undoubtedly part of it but part of it
my guess would be is because it wasn't
man-made there is the sort of feeling
it's just one of those things it's sort
of natural disaster and it doesn't
deserve its place you know in a in a
political discussion or in a way in in a
sort of historical discussion of the
great shapes that force that that sorry
the great forces that shaped the century
so I so I was just interested in this as
it relates to covert 19 now obviously
it's very important to stress at this
point we don't know whether Kovac 19 is
what Bill Gates sulit talk to talks
about he's also about the the
once-in-a-century pathogen is kovin 19
that and we simply don't know and at
this point you know it hasn't reached
anywhere close to the levels of the span
so we don't think people should should
start panic or to to make themselves to
feel that definitely versus you know 100
million people will die as died in
Spanish flu but it I certainly think for
the first time it will bring into the
political narrative a thought well
actually we talked about terrorism as a
threat we talked about nuclear
proliferation as a threat we still want
to talk about famine but do we really
think enough and talk enough about
disease and I suspect this event even if
it turns out to be at the very mild end
of the of the possibilities will change
the political narrative do you think
that might be the case is real medicine
yeah I think we need to think about it's
interesting to think about kovat 19 in
in terms of its political impacts its
economic impacts and its social impacts
and we have to recognize that in doing
that there are two big variables that we
don't know about and the first is the
extent I think people are now lark and
coming to assume that it is going to
become pretty endemic that he will
affect all parts of the country and a
reasonably high proportion of people but
the second issue is how long it lasts
because I think how people respond to
something that goes on for six weeks is
very different to how they respond to
something if it feels like it's going on
for six months there's evidence about
this isn't it you've written about this
about how habits in bed how long it
takes
so habits yeah so just to take one small
example psychologists say take six weeks
to embed a habit so think about business
travel you've already got and the second
thing is that the shifts normally occur
because a number of factors combine now
we think my business travel you've
really got costs is expensive you've got
climates and businesses wanting to say
they're doing something narration to
to to climate and you've got
improvements in the technology of
videoconferencing so you got these three
things there Cove in nineteen could be
the tipping point it could be that over
the next couple of months as people give
up business travel because of the virus
they develop a habit and having
developed that habit having got used to
business meetings online having got used
to meetings online I think well what oh
that's what I go through all that jet
like being away from my family and all
of that and that maybe in that maybe a
shift that is never reversed you know
given how much how dependent airlines
are on the front of the plane it's made
all the viable that's a massive cut back
in on travel for everybody potentially
as a thought yeah absolutely and as I
say it occurs because there were already
a set of factors leading to this point I
think you know when Kovac ninety makes
things happen which are just to do with
this and there's nothing else driving it
then things will revert to normal
afterwards but there are certain areas
of society where there was an imminent
tendency for example and I'm sure when
we got on talking about politics this is
the same every 19 is not go to create a
political set of attitudes that never
existed but it will reinforce it in
America for example there has long been
considerable worry and concern Michael
Lewis wrote a book about it that that
the the kind of capacity of the state
has withered away that the institutions
are just not there to be able to deal
with crisis cope in nineteen could take
a point in which people in arguing for
some time which there's been some
evidence for and it could absolutely
drive it home it could lead to a
fundamental shift in attitudes in
America about the kinds of risks they're
willing to take which result from the
rolling back of state capacity well I
was very interested in the way that this
might change the political debate and
actually as it turned out I think I
missed something in the comments
underneath my column people began to
talk about brexit now if we talk about
break set under it calms back anything
but you might but this was particularly
marked and I thought that what they
would talk about would be do have an
internationalist approach to this and
that's what that was what was in the
core interplay or open versus closed it
wasn't actually that that sparked the
rabbit brexit it was fear versus
no fear so lots of people who are either
recognized from previous columns or who
stated this who were levers or no
dealers were complaining that the elite
newspapers and the government was
creating a panic about something that
wasn't actually dangerous the whole
thing would pass over and wouldn't be a
problem whereas the alternative the
opposite people and I suppose they
included me in that were saying well
actually this could be quite serious and
have quite serious consequences so that
that was the first echo of of a debate
that as Matthew said already taking
place about how much value to put on
expert projection experts there's that
word from yes the referendum campaign
and the important thing about expertise
is that do not over coronate for expert
knowledge you then become somebody who
you have this knowledge you don't want
to be the idiot that picked it up only
for it to be worthless so you put more
store on it than you ought and that's
something that experts do do and you
know it's what Dominic Cummings meant
when he starts to talk about super
forecasters Philip tetlock has been
particularly strong against the author
of super forecasters and that is I think
what Dominic Cummings means when he
attacks journalists I said I think he
thinks we over correlate for our expert
knowledge about politics
I think this is fascinating we might
refer to as memes that is to say the
process by which something happens and
there are various political narratives
that kind of fight it out and so you
know Dan is recognized one which is
which is well there's a meme here which
already is it's a pre-existing meme this
is the point this code takes things
which existed already in it and some of
them grow as a consequence so you
already had a medium and that meme was
the experts are out to fry you you don't
don't trust them you know but they're
love memes I mean there's a mean which
is if you're saying well we should not
be frightened which is well you know
what about we don't care for all people
you know that that any kind of
complacency here reveals that we are an
uncaring society that is in some ways
kind of
and willing to tolerate a certain group
of people being damaged as long as the
rest of our lives are left in that in
Dane in the same same position you will
absolutely have a meme which is around
as I said in aeration to America about
the state if the economy starts to close
down you'll have memes that are around
well I know isn't it interesting the
economists we're all coming together now
they're all showing more compassion to
each other you know
isn't this prefiguring a kind of a world
we've adapted to climate change or no
growth or low growth world where
actually we seem to be happier now as a
consequence of the actions we've had to
take so you'll see these kind of
different memes playing themselves out
over the next few weeks so be
interesting to see which ones we
transmit which one's win the points are
down is making there about the echoes of
the referendum this if the virus doesn't
prove to be in these worst-case
scenarios they obviously catch our eye
all the time if it doesn't prove to be
quite as virulent and destructive as
some of the worst case scenarios suggest
there'll be an awful lot of people
echoes in the referendum who say we're
you can't you really can't trust them
about all the expert advice is all
suggestions probabilities involved and
we simply don't know and nobody says
that we do know because you can't know
that there are lots of unknowns for
example nobody really knows what the
fatality rate is because of Kobe 19
because nobody knows exactly how
widespread it is in the places where
they're calculating fatality and then
obviously some of the actions we take
may alter the the spread because we're
reacting to it so it may be that the
very actions we take will reduce its
impacts you can't know that but the
point of Matthew's making their about
how certain narratives will thrive and
some won't as we go through this episode
we are living in an age where the
American president can go to the UN and
say I'm against globalism and can use
hoax and covert 19 in the same sentence
aren't the probabilities that this could
play into the sort of nationalist
narrative and we it's all about drawing
up borders the reaction it feeds yeah I
think funds out there already I think
that I mean if you look at national
responses they vary according to the
intensity of it and also they vary
according to the capacity of the state
so China does look like it's the only
country where the number of cases is in
decline and it was able to use its
pretty strong apparatus and also a set
of social norms and values I think in
China which allowed it to to do that but
nevertheless I'd say that broadly
speaking the responses of states have
been on the same of they've been on the
the same spectrum that is to say but for
some countries very intensive other
countries less intensive but a largely
pragmatic view it would be interesting
if any country any leader was to step
outside of that so if any country leader
was to say well no actually we're going
to just say look let it rip you know
that's that's fine you know I'm a
libertarian look after yourself we'll
all be okay that will have an
interesting effect that will affect
these narratives because then if one
country does that are the people in
other countries will go well we should
do that as well
they'll be able to see whether it fails
yeah and of course it's possible in the
times that we live in that somebody may
choose to use this in some kind of
racist narrative some kind of
nationalist narrative I think I suspect
these already nudged yeah you'll see
you'll see you'll see a bit of that I
would be surprised if that spread
there's not much sign it seems to me
that the public themselves has an
appetite to kind of weaponize really as
this interesting dynamo it'll be very
interesting in the United States because
he runs as the anti-establishment
candidate as you say putting the word
hopes and Kobe 19 all in the same
paragraph and yet he's the president and
people are going to look to him to
provide leadership and so he's you you
know in the end there'll be facts on the
ground that the will that will affect
the political narrative as well as the
memes as well as the way people think
and you know he he'll have to hope that
this could be its Katrina moment that
worry
could and and one of the the evidence
political science evidence about the
impact of these natural disasters is
actually preparation and Prevention
doesn't really help you politically I
mean obviously it's vital in policies
has really helped me politically but how
you deal with it once it happens that
really is very important politically and
sometimes it doesn't even matter if it's
your fault
if the economy gets weaker and people
die people will either find a narrative
that blames it on the government or
they'll think something else was the
cause of the way they feel and blame
that on the government and you know I
want examples I uses in 1916 when when
Woodrow Wilson ran for re-election
there'd been some shark attacks in New
Jersey by Covington's his state the ones
that are in the jaws film actually and
they didn't close the beaches but had
nothing to do with him obviously and yet
when you look at the results you can see
that he suffered in those areas
specifically which suggests that the
people blame the government for natural
disasters I know that that guy who
didn't close the beaches is someone
Boris Johnson once cited as a bit of a
hero of his and and in was like of
ermine Boris Johnson I believe was
acting as a bit of a break on the
announcement that eventually came this
week of the government's action plan but
he inside government until the end of
last week was acting as a break saying
well we don't want to engender chaos I'm
not really sure that since Peru so just
because don't amiss that the Denisovich
is that the prevention doesn't really
kind of register I I wonder them that
may change because of the fact that this
is global and the data so one thing that
might it seems to me happen in a few
weeks time is people can have a kind of
global league table of you know the
number of people the number of deaths
and will start to reflect on what this
tells you about nation how we organize
yes I think an international phenomenon
where you can see that prevention in one
country seems to work quite well and
prevention other country has worked much
less well might mean that it actually
has more political salience than that it
would do that just as just an authority
because the thing about prevention the
reason it doesn't have salience is
because there's really a counterfactual
but here we do have counterfactuals
because it's going on in so many other
countries and so people will say well
why is it the 10% of the population here
is got it whereas only 4% of the
population there it's not it
it's just what I think that's completely
created essentially what you say about
Boris Johnson before he became prime
minister I pointed out that the theme of
all of his writing was all these
regulations were a load of nonsense and
not you know 10-point plan it sort of he
set his sights all the way through
Matthew zero number ten you know on
10-point plans and and declarations and
but you know global policy and that sort
of thing and every instinct of his would
definitely have been let's not panic
with this it would have been with the
comet is under my article
let's not engender an undeserved panic
about it but in the end he looked me
like with Donald Trump he's the Prime
Minister and he he has to take sensible
steps to ensure that people that we do
we do our best to prevent this and to
deal with the problem as it because I
think white difficult to prevent that's
my own this is in governing mode not
campaigning mode and I just wondered
what you make of that so far having
watched him do that press conference the
production the the patience building
that he exudes or not my view is my view
with Boris Johnson's always was that
ultimate that he would see and
relatively rapidly that the sort of
enthusiasts that suited his journalism
isn't a governing strategy that he is
basically an executive mayor and this
sort of event actually rather suits his
style he can organize the government to
do something of a sort of grand type and
so far I think the government's
performance has been good but it's it's
very early at this point and you know I
think however good government's
performance is and ultimately I
basically I don't think that's a
possibility much I suspect it would be
the case under any party be reasonably
good but will we you know however good
it is it's so good
if this does become the problem that one
it could be but it might not be but it
could be then no matter how how good
this preparations are people will still
be cross and resentful to the government
I suspect well I think you know Sony
owns this interest I mean the first
thing just to say is actually I'm not
short campaigning mode is the wrong mode
to be in in relation to Luke Ovid 19
because I think that you know we don't
know what's happening we need to try
things out we need to see what happens
when we pull this lever whether it's
attached to something I mean you know
it's much better for people to do things
voluntarily then there's them through
compulsion so let's try out voluntary
measures and only if people are ignoring
them in a way that is dangerous would
you want to move to the next level side
I think an agile approach is probably
the right kind of attitude to it and I
think it's really about that the test
for government is whether it's got this
kind of real time incapacity to see
what's happening and to respond
reasonably pragmatically as things as
things unfold
I think another interesting dimension of
this is that it
you know we it's such a kind of cliche
that we don't trust government it's a
time like this one of the things you see
is actually no so I would did more
amazed last night when Michael Portillo
and he was saying look isn't it great
the British we're not panicking you know
wearing masks we're not doing this much
and I saw part of the reason that it's
because I trust the government the
government hasn't told us to do this
stuff so we're we're kind of we're kind
of getting on with it so I actually
think that at a time at least it reveals
that we we do want government to take
the lead we broadly do trust government
but but the other issue I think is
important is that Trust is absolutely
vital at all levels of society by the
way you know whether it's trust in the
doctor trusting the NHS trusting the
government trusting your neighbors maybe
and part of that trust is a is a is a
willingness to kind of be open about the
issues and the choices that we face and
at the heart of this is is what
philosophers called the trolley problem
in in this this discussion which is on
the one hand you've got data that as the
data gets better will tell you mayor
toad with increasing accuracy how many
people are likely to die if the disease
let's rip so this is a surrealist of
certain
yeah versus the the very uncertain issue
of the wide consequences for the rest of
society if the economy for example
shrinks by 10 percent so the reason I
say it's the trolley problem is in a
sense in your trolley problem you've got
the train shooting down the track it's
going to kill four people you're on the
bridge do you push the man over the
bridge kills the one man and saves the
four lives and and it turns out that
people don't always assume that you
should push the one man over to save the
four lives because they feel this
somehow deliberately killing somebody is
different more category to allowing
something to happen and there's a
similar kind of element to this which is
you know the ten thousand deaths you
know you're going to have if you let the
disease rip versus the very much less
tangible consequences for the poor and
for everybody else of closing down our
economy now my view is simply that that
kind of German needs to be discussed
it can't be funding which technocrats
decide in a kind of closed room it's
something that we we we have to openly
discuss as a society and the govment
nudged adapt and they by talking about
what one in five might not be in the
workforce it more people can die in
incidents like this from neglect from
the fact there isn't an ambulance yes
well there isn't many okay and then
actually die of the Michael Moritz
report about health inequalities and
austerity suggests really that I I
didn't necessarily grew these political
conclusions but it certainly suggests
there's there's a relationship between
number of people who die and economic
indicators so if you anybody who
believes that will believe that math is
correct
so the classic example here which Dame
remember is the Southall plane a train
crash so after the South will train
crash we closed we closed the Train
Sound Lab there's no trains really
trains for several weeks because you try
to work out what had gone wrong in that
time of course road fatalities went up
by I don't know what it was you know but
you know when 200 more people died on
the roads when you know there was
absolutely no question that 200 people
were did other voices but but in a sense
that was because there was a concrete
risk which was something I wrong the
trains me didn't know quite why am i up
against his 200 car deaths all around
the
none of which you could absolutely I
suspect that more people by the way will
travel in their cars because they don't
want to travel on public transport and
that will have exactly that effect do
you think people really want to be
engaged in that philosophical debate or
to franchise it out to government
whether or not they want to be involved
in the debate I think they want that if
the debate is happening in a democracy
we need the public to understand the
debate is opposing I want to see it
and a real look for me one of the big
tests of politicians is a willingness to
be honest about dilemmas and at a time
like this
yet there is a kind of Chinese way of
doing things which used to say there is
only one right thing and we're going to
do it and you're going to follow us and
there's a democratic way of doing things
which you say there's a genuine dilemma
here we face difficult choices we're
deciding to opt for this and by the way
if it doesn't work out we'll try
something else I know but the the the
problem with the analogy in the trolley
analogy all the people were other people
right the problem with is that this is
that's not true in this case it's the
case the choice between probability that
economic reduction in activity might
kill someone else
versus the possibility that this might
kill you or somebody that you know in
your family so that I think that will I
think ultimately you're right in
thinking that is the trolley problem is
exactly what we're discussing you're
also right that we should discuss it but
I suspect that what that it will be
resolved by that right which is that
people will both expect and will
personally take actions that lead them
to to reduce their chances of death
although sometimes I think people will
be a bit careless about it so they'll
they'll self isolate but they won't do
very well they'll use it to you know to
call the electrician what because they
have to be home at the time all of us
they won't they won't logically see it
through but it will definitely reduce
the spread you know I I do think one
thing is it is gonna be interesting
about this let's assume that it does
reach epidemic proportions you know and
that is what it will teach us of our
economy so I think economies are like
relationships you only really find out
their true nature when they're going
through hard times
and there are certain characteristics of
our economy which have only really
existed in relatively good times the
classic being the cake economy the gig
economy growth has entirely been in a
period of relatively benign economic
circumstances in a relatively tight
labor market when you if you get into a
situation of economic slowdown all these
people who have no means of support if
they're not getting any work who are
reliant on platforms who will have
enormous power now because there haven't
been faulty many drivers and for too few
jobs so you know really for them in some
cases
well what would they do with their
prices etc so the gig economy is a
classic example of something we're going
to find out a lot more about if this
that's isn't it the richest Epogen
proportions but because we've never seen
it on those under those circumstances
more broadly the fact that we have a
service sector economy means that in
some ways this is I think would have a
bigger impact because you hear what I
mean in manufacturing and you close down
for a month you know there's a cash flow
issue but you'll get rid of the
inventory in time people will need to
consume this if you run a restaurant in
there close to four weeks people don't
have two meals at the end of the four
weeks and you know huge number of
service businesses have very very tight
margins finally in this kind of economy
area the level of personal debt that
people have I mean the RSA's don't work
on this a remarkably high proportion of
people say that they are just kind of
150 pounds away from economic disaster
so you know we will learn quite a lot
about the strengths and weaknesses of
our economy if we do go into a sustained
period of kind of economic shutdown
a related point perhaps but in
dependency there's supply lines and the
rest of it there's already lots of
speculation that that kind of economy
that is developed in the globalized
world will come up for question do you
see that happening I think I'm
self-sufficient there will be a debate
about it I think all sorts of debates
and I think weirdly I think food will
become bully part of it because there'll
be a question about food standards where
we get food from whether we're entitled
to impose our food standards on other
countries and other countries on us
which is you know Matthew said is a
pre-existing debate it's varying the
number of people who
have comments about chlorinated chicken
under column about Cove in nineteen
there's definitely going to be an issue
about whether you know China's
sovereignty over its own wet markets is
something that the rest of the world is
willing to live by and if it isn't at
what we would do about it so I think
these questions are that the the
question of whether there is you know it
came up with Ebola as well whether there
is an international minimum that
countries are required to do by law
whether that legal requirement falls on
individuals or on States all those
things I think will be the subject of
renewed debate because the truth is in a
global market economy though there are
always going to be that those political
rails are going to come up and
interestingly I think they've come up so
far in the form of tariffs and you know
the role of World Trade Organization the
role of the European Union but they
might be much more powerful and much
more immediate and more sort of
personally felt when they come up in the
on the question of people's survival
what do you think Matthew do we roll
back to a globalization rollback in any
in any sense at the end of all of this
may be overuse to come nothing instant
of course if it were to be as big as
yeah and and and to go to I said earlier
it's not just the scale but it's also
the time scale that's you know if it
goes on for months if if there is a new
normal the question is is that new
normal one that is deeply painful to us
and therefore reminds us factually how
much we rely on global supply chains
because we're missing our avocados or
whatever and actually in some case it
might reverse that and it but what's
been going on people go oh my goodness I
want to be part of a globally
interdependent world it's been pretty
miserable not being part of it all the
reverse which is people get used to it
and they think well actually you know no
I don't have got her for two months I'm
not life's ok you know maybe I can you
know survive on English
fruit vegetables where and there is a
kind of you know there is out there
narratives around as I said by round
kind of how we need to live in a lower
growth environment you know how might be
local food
you know there'll be a kind of rise in
communitarianism I think associated with
this internationalism because another
way of looking at it is the only way we
get over things like this is by sharing
information and expertise and the rest
so yeah but I think you'll get that in
the Med I mean you think you'll get that
I don't think dynamite will correct me
on this but I don't think the kind of
push against globalization has really
happened in the scientific community I
think they've continued to work very
effectively and I think that will happen
so we'll have a the the economy may
become d globalized politics may become
d globalized I don't hopefully I mean it
would be really problematic for the
scientific community I'm sure they'll be
but the but it but it does raise quite
obviously of dealing with the problem of
food coming from other places or viruses
coming from other places that might
contaminate this country is you don't
take them and another way of dealing
with it is you try and help or assist to
make sure that doesn't happen to those
to those goods and services and people
so but that obviously involves a degree
of international interdependence and I
think that will be a debate I thought
that debate meat might even start in
Britain already and one of the reasons
it hasn't is because the same people I
think who might take more of an a test
nativist of you are at the moment taking
the view I can't believe the media and
the elites are panicking us about
something that's not really going to
happen we're British and we can overcome
this and therefore they're not turning
to that issue that may then happen we
may get that debate but so far that
debate which I did anticipate would be
the first one is not the first one in
line the first one in line is is this
project fear it's another factor than
all of this because we were talking just
on the economic hit that me inevitably
comes if things are as bad as they could
be that masks perhaps other hits that
are happening to the economy whether
it's breaks it or anything else you can
keep pointing at this can't you
it's I mean it's not good but it's a get
out the Johnson government got elected
we're now in danger of having what their
No Deal that everyone has talked about
different No Deal obviously but the Noda
and the supermarket shelves are empty
exactly what everyone said will happen
but it obviously didn't happen for that
reason it
it's but but there definitely as I think
we've been saying throughout the reality
is that what Cove in nineteen does is it
overlays a set of existing narratives
which we'll be fighting it out and you
know on this internationalism issue
there are both the narratives so there
at one which is why on earth are we
cutting us off off from the world you
know I I did a you know really kind of
silly tweet right at the beginning of
this saying you know why does Cove in
nineteen not and realize we're now a
sovereign nation you know I mean so
you've got all of that kind of like you
know isn't it ridiculous this whole kind
of notion nationalist mood when clearly
a problem like this like so many other
problems is global in its nature on the
other hand you get well look we're
cooperating before II know but Brian
Johnson leaning out to background you
know we're perfectly able of core good
to cooperate pragmatically when there's
a crisis we don't need brought through
Brussels and all that bureaucracy in
nations will just work together when
they need to work at it so both of these
narratives will fight it out that's true
but it but it brings up something that
is I think is an acute question and was
you know the heart abrasive heart breaks
it wasn't do we cooperate with France it
is do the French have any stake in our
domestic law and what this raises is
that there are certain things which if
countries don't do they cause this sort
of problem that's why disease is a bit
different I think so what the Chinese do
in terms of regulating use of our
animals it was at definitely by the way
Ducks were involved in the in the
Spanish flu all these people think that
they weren't know was living with all
the animals ripe in their you know in
the trenches and all those sort of
things that was thought of possibly been
involved in it and exactly the same
thing is said to be the case with Co V
nineteen and that means do we have a
legitimate interest in Chinese domestic
farming policy and that's where the
sovereignty issue come I think I think
that that's the second wave thing
personally in the sense that I think
people you know we will pragmatically
respond to where we are we don't know
much about it
if and when this dies down and people
say as I said earlier we need to start
treating pandemics and disease in the
same ways we treat terrorism or whatever
else that's where I think people will
look at the rules and they'll say okay
what should the rules now be if
something breaks out in one country what
is the responsibility of that country
and should we globally be saying to that
country look I'm sorry you as a country
will have to close yourself down
maybe the international community will
commit to supporting you financially as
you go through that so I think that we
will have to consider there's gonna be a
whole new set of kind of academic
studies and political conversations
about how it is you respond - pandemic
now being a forefront of our mind
probabilistically though this is
definitely a bigger threat than
terrorism so that the maths of terrorism
have always been that there's small
numbers of people who probably would
kill small numbers of people but there's
always the possibility that if you don't
deal with the small numbers of people to
get killed that it would you'd end up
getting a massive tragedy our disaster
caused by it the the mass with diseases
are much clearer it's obvious that you
would do and therefore the psychological
connection is not always known that's
exactly the port way I made about
Spanish flu people were less people were
killed in the first world war in combat
but do we have a nine part series on the
Spanish flu no orders does an Australian
New Zealand films are ready to reef
colorizer format the Spanish flu do we
have do we have Spanish flu Armistice
Day no so we because it's not the same
thing as far as we think well I think
this may alter our perceptions or a look
I mean the evidence against me is the
Spanish flu happened that it didn't but
maybe this maybe this will it always
puts me in mind a wonderful New Yorker
cartoon of people walking along Broadway
and in the background there on the
Empire State Building there's an
enormous rabbit chlorine planes out of
the sky but people are just walking
along and one is faint you have of
course if it was a gorilla people could
take it seriously you know so you know
this question of how is we respond to
risks you know it isn't it isn't
we aren't calculating machines Matthew
Danny thank you for responding to the
invitation thank you being here very
grateful for you thought