With China rising fast as a strong contender for the new global superpower,
many are wondering who would win in a battle between China and the USA. The US, which has
traditionally paid close attention to Russian capabilities, is now looking across the Pacific
as China develops new and more technologically capable military equipment and weaponry.
Besides Russia, China and the US are currently the only other countries in the world to develop fifth
generation fighter jets, though only the US’s jets are currently ready for frontline service. The US’
formidable entry into this category is the F-22 Raptor, while in the late 2010s, China debuted
its own Chengdu J-20 fighter jet. Who would win in a fight between these two powerful jets?
First of all, you might be wondering what the big deal is with fifth generation
fighter jets in the first place. Are they really that different from fourth generation fighters?
Or is it like when your teacher makes you buy the brand new fifth edition
of a textbook, only so you can then discover the only change is the font.
Well, the truth is that the difference between successive generations of fighter
jets is astounding. Fifth gen fighters jets are so powerful,
and feature so many upgraded capabilities, that they pretty much render fourth gen jets useless in
any fight against them. Countries vying for global influence, such as the US and China,
know that failing to keep up with such developments in military tech, especially
in the Air Force, can make all the difference between winning and losing potential wars.
At first glance, one might think that the US would have significantly more advanced military tech
based on its spending alone. In 2020, China’s official defense budget amounted to $179 billion.
However, it’s important to note that outside sources, including the International Institute
for Strategic Studies (IISS) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI),
estimate the actual Chinese military budget to be closer to $225 to $261 billion. The average
of these institutes’ estimates puts China’s military spending at around 1.9% of GDP.
A recurring theme in this comparison will be that China, perhaps understandably,
plays its cards close to the vest and is less than transparent about its military specs.
The US, on the other hand, has had a defense budget of approximately 3.2% of GDP
over the last few years, with 2020’s defense budget estimated at around $718 billion.
If we take these numbers into account alone,
it seems there’s no way any of China’s tech or military would be able to match the US soon.
However, those direct comparisons don’t take PPP, otherwise known as Purchasing Power Parity,
into account. Though the Chinese budget is smaller, Chinese products and salaries are
also relatively cheaper than in the US, and this extends to the military as well.
So taking PPP into account, “China’s spending is worth about 75% that of the US”.
Still less, but nowhere near as wimpy as the original GDP numbers make it sound.
Zeroing in on the fifth gen fighter jets of each country,
let’s compare the F-22’s and J-20’s specific capabilities.
Many aerospace consultants and other experts complain that China ripped
off much of the design for their J-20s from the US F-22’s, designed by Lockheed Martin,
via cyberattacks and espionage. That may be one reason why both aircraft have a ceiling of
12.4 miles (20 km) and a max speed of just over Mach 2 - approximately 1,535 mph (2,470 km/h).
One of the key differences is in the jets’ range. The F-22 Raptor has a combat range
of 497 miles (800 km) while the J-20 has a much larger range of 684 miles (1,100 km), thanks to
a larger fuel tank. The F-22 has an actual range of 1,840 mi (2,960 km), but that’s when it flies
with two external fuel tanks, which would not be the case in a combat situation.
That might sound like an advantage for the Chinese at first; however, Zhou Chenming,
a Beijing-based military expert, pointed out that China’s J-20 was only introduced in 2017,
and has yet to be tested in a real combat situation. On the other hand,
the US Raptors have been in use since 2005, and employed in combat situations
around the world, including in the Middle East, Singapore, and Okinawa.
Besides the J-20s being relatively untested, another advantage for the US
is the sheer number of F-22’s that have been made. China has around 50-60 J-20s in total,
while the US currently has 187 operational F-22s, with 8 more in testing.
When it comes to specific capabilities, such as the weapons the Chengdu J-20 can hold,
experts have had to make educated guesses since China refuses to release many details.
The J-20 has a broad but shallow weapons bay which can hold between four to six
long-range missiles or bombs. We know the F-22 can
carry up to six missiles for either air to air or air to ground combat.
The weapons each jet carries are important, but they may actually be less important than each
jet’s stealth and detection capabilities. The F-22 is incredibly hard to detect and track,
giving it a natural stealth advantage. After all, the best weapons in the world
can’t shoot what the plane’s technology can’t see. The J-20 is thought to be similarly hard
to detect from the front, however, there are elements on the aircraft’s
sides and engine nozzles that may make it more susceptible to radar detection.
The next great consideration is maneuverability. In a dogfight,
the more agile jet will usually win the day.
However, it is also important to note here that the increasing speeds and weapon range of modern
day fighters have rendered dogfighting much less important - and frequent - than it used to be. In
fact, the only US aircraft to have been involved in a dogfight in the last 20 years was in 2017,
when a US Navy pilot shot down a Syrian fighter. Generally,
pilots these days are trained to avoid or negate dogfights.
That being said, maneuverability still gives jets tactical advantages in non-dogfight
situations. Many observers, especially those who closely watched the Zhuhai 2018 airshow,
believe China has overstated the Chengdu J-20’s capabilities.
Military experts believe it is probable that China’s J-20 is less maneuverable in a dogfight,
and therefore at a disadvantage against the more agile F-22.
Others point out that the J-20 was made to function optimally with high-thrust
WS-15 engines, which China is struggling to refine and produce.
Therefore, current J-20s are relying on less optimal Saturn AL-31F M2 turbines imported
from Russia, which would definitely affect their current maneuverability.
China did recently announce that they will start mass production of the J-20B, a more agile line
of fighter jets, in July of 2020. Though these might pose a bigger threat to the US air force,
many reports of China producing updated and mightier aircraft have proven to be false,
and it seems this may be the case with this news release as well.
Overall, the lack of specifics known about the Chengdu J-20 due to China’s tendency
to keep details about their military specs and military program secret,
combined with the Chinese government’s habit of releasing misleading reports,
makes a comparison of the J-20 and the USA’s F-22 very difficult.
Most military experts believe that currently, the F-22 would handily beat the J-20 in a fight.
However, some are concerned about the future because China is continuing to fund
and refine its J-20 production program, while significant updates on the F-22 have stalled,
especially since F-22 manufacturing facilities were shut down in 2011.
Another concern is the missiles the J-20s are carrying, known as PL-15s;
one of the top air to air missiles in the world. PL-15s have a much higher effective
range than their current US counterparts, the AIM-120s, and are built with top of the line
anti-jamming technology, which its US counterparts don’t necessarily have. However, the Pentagon is
currently focused on developing the brand new JATM - Joint Advanced Tactical Missile - which
they are convinced will be the best air to air weapon in the world when completed.
Even with the Pentagon developing new air to air missiles, and the F-22 probably forging ahead with
scheduled upgrades in the 2020s, thus pushing it further ahead of J-20 in terms of modern tech,
observers caution that the J-20 is at the relative start of its production run,
meaning the advantage may shift to China over time if the US isn’t careful. A recent comparison
of Chinese and US air superiority from 1996 to 2017 by RAND shows a rapidly closing gap in air
force capabilities between the two countries, which would seem to reinforce this concern.
Who do you think would win in a fight? Does the Chinese J-20 stand a chance against
the F-22 Raptor, widely considered the premier fighting jet worldwide?
Let us know in the comments. Now go check out more comparison videos!