Fernandinho turns 34 in May and Manchester City know that they must cast around to find
someone of his calibre. And they know it will not be easy; as Pep Guardiola, City’s manager,
said before the game against Wolves:
“Maybe there aren’t many but there are players who can play in that role. Specifically
Fernandinho’s role, it’s so difficult to find.
“He knows the Premier League, he knows everything and that’s so important. But, of course,
for the next season it’s an important target to find. He’ll be 34 and he cannot play
every few days.”
In fact, over the festive period, Fernandinho couldn’t play at all due to injury, and
the back to back losses suffered by City were both without him, as first John Stones and
then Ilkay Gundogan sought to plug the gap.
City are far more successful with the Brazilian in the side than without.
It’s also worth saying that two of the recent victories achieved without Fernandinho were
against Rotherham and Burton Albion; it’s in games against Premier League and European
opposition where his absence is felt, and that’s where it matters most.
So what does Fernandinho do that’s so important? He’s essentially a defensive midfielder
who is capable of playing higher up the pitch as well, able to cover and screen as well
as he can pass, get forwards, or shoot. In other words, he’s pretty much the complete
midfielder. In City’s 4-3-3, he’s the lynchpin, sitting behind the two aggressively
attacking central midfielders who split high and wide to overload the wider areas of the
pitch with the wingers and full backs, safe in the knowledge that the athletically gifted
and tactically intelligent Fernandinho will plug the gaps.
As City attack and cluster players out wide, with the central midfielders pushing into
the half spaces, Fernandinho will find also space in which to push up, or take possession
and switch the play or pass forwards to runners.
Should City lose possession, he is able to shuttle across and cover the gaps, using his
superb reading of the game and his pace, as well as his ability to work with the centre
backs, to thwart counter-attacks. Because he gets forwards, this often happens quite
high up the pitch and can even lead to regaining possession rather than just stopping attacks,
allowing City to counter the counter and attack again against a defence that thinks it’s
just got rid of the threat.
He’s also adept at the tactical foul, another facet of understanding the game state, knowing
when it’s worth surrendering a free kick to stop an opposition move, and when City
can regroup into a more defensive pose without giving away a foul.
Fernandinho’s positional sense means he can drift into spaces during the build-up
from deep, and then carry the ball, launch a long wide or vertical pass, or rotate it
back to the centre backs or full backs to ensure City keep possession. In this, his
passing range is important but, perhaps more so, his ability to judge when and how to pass
is key.
Fernandinho’s combination of defensive nous, ball winning ability, creative passing, and
dynamic running is obviously extremely hard to replicate. His tactical awareness and reading
of the game has developed under the hugely successful Mircea Lucescu at Shakhtar Donetsk,
as well as under Guardiola and Manuel Pellegrini. His experience, as much as his abilities,
make him tough to replace.
So, where do City start? Recruitment in football has tended to follow a certain path in the
past – a manager, or a director of football, uses their contact book to secure a player
who has caught the eye over a number of games or even at a tournament, scouted in person
and maybe based on recommendations of other trusted football sources. Now, however, there
has been an increase in the use of data-driven analytics and video scouting. The sensible
approach is a marriage of the two, using stats and video to whittle down a shortlist of players,
who are then also observed in person.
City won’t take an old-school approach. Data will be used, but this poses two further
questions. Firstly, which data? Fernandinho is the sort of all-rounder that’s almost
impossible to replicate, so do City privilege his defensive actions, or his deep-lying creativity
and attacking input, or try to find an amalgam of the two while being aware that it’s highly
unlikely anyone can replicate both aspects as well – in other words, is compromise
better than specialisation? Secondly, while data scouting can turn up brilliance in surprising
places, such as N’Golo Kante in Ligue 2, it’s unlikely that City would, at this point,
take a relative unknown when their finances and reputation mean they could attract a safer
bet, even if it costs more.
So, who should replace Fernandinho? Jorginho, who’s 2017/18 season at Napoli showed Fernandinho-like
all-rounded qualities, albeit within a very specific system geared to his style of play,
isn’t available. Sergio Busquets wouldn’t likely leave Barcelona, and Joshua Kimmich,
a right back who, like Philip Lahm, is gifted enough to be a world class defensive midfielder,
probably wouldn’t leave Bayern Munich even if they were prepared to sell.
It’s also worth noting that City have a few players who could step in: Gundogan could
improve defensively, while Fabian Delph could also be used in the position, although again,
he can be caught out in the defensive phase.
But are some options for Manchester City that could be reasonably priced, and fit most of
the bill to replace Fernandinho:
Miralem Pjanic – is as good as or better than Fernandinho creatively from the deep
position, but doesn’t contribute as much defensively and could command a hefty price
tag compared with other suggestions, especially as Juventus are in a strong position and would
not need to sell. But he’s a silky player and reads the game beautifully.
Leandro Paredes – has excelled for Zenit St. Petersburg this season after impressing
at Roma, is an Argentina international, and looks a strong all-round fit to take over
from Fernandinho when price is also considered. He’s also young enough to be part of the
team for quite some time.
Roberto Gagliardini – has not played much for Inter this season, but has a strong defensive
game, carries the ball well, and presses well, while also contributing creativity from midfield
and comfortable in a 4-3-3. He’s an excellent all-rounder, but perhaps has insufficient
top level experience. Marcelo Brozovic, also at Inter, would be a possible fit too, but
is likely to cost significantly more.
Marten de Roon – is part of Gian Piero Gasperini’s superbly exciting Atalanta side, and impressed
in an otherwise poor Middlesbrough side but bafflingly did not get another chance with
a Premier League team. Excellent defensively and as a reader of the game, contributes less
offensively in his current team than Fernandinho does but is still developing and made his
Dutch national team debut in 2018.
Florian Grillitsch – is probably the most left-field choice but plays for a very astute
manager in Julian Nagelsmann at Hoffenheim and shows the sort of positional fluidity
that Guardiola admires. He’s defensively strong and a good passer of the ball and at
23 has room to develop under the right tutelage.
Whoever City choose, they will have significant shoes to fill. What is certain is that City
will not just throw money at someone; a role as important as Fernandinho’s requires real
consideration and thought to replace.