I think the one thing that has happened is that sterling, the value of the pound has
been affected almost overnight.
Now the impact of that as far as most people are concerned, is that it makes imports more
expensive and therefore pushes up those more expensive imports and means more expensive
prices of many goods that people buy and we see those increased costs of imports are pushed
on to consumers and so the price of stuff just goes up in your supermarkets, in the
shops that you go into, so things get more expensive.
We see that in inflation figures, inflation is now about 3%, which historically isn't
necessarily that high, but it's much higher than it has been in recent history.
I think it's particularly significant during a period where for most people their wages
aren't going up significantly.
so the price of stuff you're having to buy is going up quicker or higher than your wages
are going up and therefore your cost of living will be hit, people are being hit in the pocket.
I think that's the most obvious way that we see the impact of Brexit at the moment.
Now after we formally leave the EU, that may continue to be the case.
The Scottish government, for instance, estimate that about 80,000 jobs will be lost directly
as a result of Brexit.
I think prices and jobs will probably be the two main things that people will notice.
Obviously, trade deals being the other one that will affect particularly companies that
have an interest in exporting and importing good and services.
I think Scotland is certainly facing a particularly big challenge on the ending of free movement
of people.
Because Scotland and its economy have benefited considerably from inward migration in increasing
the labour supply and bringing younger people into Scotland.
There's a lot of concern here and the Scottish government has, of course, argued for Scotland
to stay in the single market even if the rest of the UK doesn't but that has been rejected
by the government.
I think the Scottish government would be very keen at least to see the potential for a separate
or partially separate migration policy for Scotland because of the economic concerns
there.
other economic issues in many ways are similar to the rest of the UK in terms of the potential
huge drop in services and goods trade if you do have a Canada style free trade deal.
We've seen recent studies suggesting that Scottish cities might be particularly badly
hit, Edinburgh and Aberdeen were quite high up on the list in that piece of research.
We haven't seen the sector-specific impact studies that the government is, of course,
keeping secret.
So there may be sectors like food and drink that could be particularly badly hit, especially
if we were going to go to WTO tariffs if you look at Norway the tariffs on smoked salmon
mean they tend to put plants into the UK rather than the do the smoking and processing in
Norway to avoid the tariffs.
I think if you start to look at it sector by sector, whether it's fish processing or
the NHS or migration it's going to have a very wide-ranging impact.
And just on fish because that's often seen as very sensitive in Scotland.
As an area where Scottish fishermen are seen as supporting Brexit, which in some areas
they are.
But in others areas, if you're exporting for instance live fish or shellfish and they need
to get across borders really, really quickly then actually you're going to have a big problem.
structural funds, as well.
Money that's come to Scotland specifically for great projects.
The University of the Highlands and Islands is an example, it wouldn't exist if hadn't
been for European funding.
You go to most communities, I live in Dunfermline, and the road next to where I live has got
a 12-star flag of the EU where European funding came to help support that road, that investment,
that infrastructure.
We've got all these examples across Scotland that for the future, what is going to happen
to money that we have agreed to?
Whether it's restructural funds or other programmes, how are we going to ensure that programmes
are not disrupted?
there will be some kind of transitional, or so called implementation period, probably
of around two years or so.
During that period I think we'll still pay substantially into the EU budget, I think
a lot of the existing rules will still be in place for that period, or at least part
of that period.
The important thing is the longer term, what happens beyond the two years, and I think
what we'll see is something close to, if not completely a free trade agreement between
the UK and EU.
clearly there will be long term liabilities, that for example in the European Investment
Bank and the European Development Bank, and things of that nature, where we've signed
up to long term projects with long term liabilities.
At the same time we share the assets of the European Union, so we need to get our share
of the assets of the European Union as well.
There will be a bit of a balance sheet exercise in that, but I think with common sense on
both sides we could reach a deal.