Did you know that the sun beams down more energy in an hour
than the entire world uses in a year?
As the world races to avert catastrophic climate change,
the sun offers by far the most abundant source of clean energy.
And by harnessing it, countries can also power economic growth,
expand electricity access, and reduce energy imports.
Over the last decade, solar has gone from expensive novelty
to the cheapest, fastest-growing power source on Earth.
But here's the thing.
We could squander its potential if we don't plan for the future.
Today, solar supplies just two percent of the world's electricity.
And even though it might look like solar power could
keep on growing exponentially,
its rise could very well hit a ceiling,
flattening out in coming decades,
far before it unseats dominant fossil fuels.
In Europe, we're already seeing this slowdown,
and if that happens on a global scale,
the solar revolution could sputter out.
Preventing that is the point of my new book, Taming the Sun.
I argue that three types of innovation are needed
to unlock solar's full potential.
The first innovation is financial.
Right now, solar needs to attract trillions of dollars to fuel its rise.
But so far, the world's most deep-pocketed investors have largely sat on the sidelines.
So, the solar industry needs to take a page out of the playbook from the fossil fuel,
automobile, and mortgage industries,
and bundle together solar projects,
so big institutional investors feel comfortable buying and trading them.
I'm pretty confident the industry will figure that one out.
But just as soon as solar gets over that funding speed bump,
it could run into a much more serious obstacle,
known as value deflation.
See, all this investment will help the industry
produce and deploy more solar panels,
driving down the cost of building a new solar project.
That's the good news.
But the bad news is that the value of the electricity produced by solar
will plunge even faster.
As more solar panels come online, they'll flood the grid with power
in the middle of the day, but shut off when the sun sets.
Even though customers will need power during dinnertime,
the next solar panel will just feed them more lunchtime power.
That's not very valuable.
Soon, the value will fall below the cost,
so it won't make economic sense to install any more solar panels.
That will halt the momentum of solar's rise.
Overcoming this barrier starts with technological innovation.
Breakthroughs in solar technology could cause the cost of solar to plunge,
enabling more solar to be deployed economically.
Next-generation technologies, such as perovskites, already exist in laboratories.
They could transform today's heavy, rigid, and frankly ugly solar panels
into lightweight, flexible, and colorful coatings
that tomorrow could cover cityscapes around the world.
Additionally, developing advanced solar thermal plants could convert the sun's energy into heat,
and use that heat to generate power 24/7,
rather than just at lunchtime.
And one day, artificial leaf technology could even harness sunlight
to make portable fuels, finally making oil obsolete.
Still, even with these two types of innovation, solar will need a third
to limit the decline of its value as more of it's deployed.
And that would be systemic innovation, which includes things like:
Continent-spanning power grids
that link sun-drenched deserts to power-hungry cities;
Energy markets that pay for energy storage and flexible generators
to smooth out the volatile swings of solar power;
And smart software that can turn electric vehicles into mobile batteries
to resupply the grid once the sun goes down.
These innovative energy systems would preserve solar's value
by making sure that solar power can be used
no matter when it's produced or how it fluctuates.
Promoting all three kinds of innovation will require urgent investments
by governments all around the world.
And that needs to start right now.
If we wait until solar runs out of steam,
it'll be too late to get it back on track.
But if we get this right,
the twenty first century will finally be the one
in which humankind secures cheap, clean, and virtually limitless energy
all by taming the sun.