Just before his army invaded Ukraine, Vladimir Putin outlined his motivations in a speech.
His first and main argument:
He blamed the extension of the military alliance ever closer to Russia’s borders
and accused Western leaders of breaking alleged promises to never do so
But experts disagree on whether that’s true
the U.S. broke these assurances that had been made
I think it’s false. It’s really sort of a pretext
So was anything really promised? And why is that such a crucial point for Russia?
After WWII two spheres of influence emerged in Europe, each one with their military alliance.
NATO in the west, countries that would soon become part of the Warsaw Pact in the east.
This created a clear red line between the two superpowers.
Their spheres of influence were clearly defined and for many years NATO grew slowly
– until 1990, when that divide started to crumble…here in Germany
Germany was the key focal point of the Cold War in Europe.
Joshua Shifrinson has done extensive archival research on the U.S. and Soviet foreign policy
including this great question of what was or was not promised in 1990
At the time, Germany was speeding toward reunification. And for many in Europe,
this was a bit scary.
The US did not want to see a reunified Germany either in the Soviet camp or neutral.
And the concern with neutrality was that a neutral Germany might one day run amok.
Washington decided the best option was to bring Germany into NATO.
But first, they had to convince the Soviets.
And here we get to the famous assurances about NATO’s expansion.
in February of 1990, in a series of meetings, U.S. and West German leaders very openly said
that if the Soviet leadership consented to German reunification and Germany remaining in NATO,
then NATO would not expand one inch to the East
Logs of those conversations have since been declassified.
And they show what Soviet politicians were told by western leaders like… (show several
of the documents)
So, what happened to NATO after Germany unified?
In 1999 the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland joined NATO
In 2004 it was the baltic states and four other countries
And finally four more from 2009 to just a few years ago
Georgia and Ukraine were promised membership in 2008 but are not yet members
This would seem to justify Putin’s grievances.
But one historical event could suggest a different interpretation:
Back in 1991 and the collapse of the Soviet Union
This is Steven Pifer.He was the US ambassador to Ukraine when NATO was expanding,
and deputy director on the Soviet desk when those assurances were made.
When Secretary Baker at that time was talking about not extending
forward. I understood not into East Germany
Pifer says that those commitments didn’t refer to countries like Poland or Lithuania because…
and at that time, the Warsaw Pact still existed. It didn't collapse for another year,
so I saw the discussions about not one inch really in the context of Germany.
But many experts disagree
That doesn't quite hold water for two different reasons. One is that the
Soviet leadership and the Americans both understood that the question of
what comes next in Europe was all about the future of Eastern Europe, not East Germany.
There's a concern that the Warsaw Pact is falling apart. And also, if I say to you,
I'm not going east. It's a pretty generic statement, right? It kind of beggars the
imagination to think that they only meant, oh, it's only there, but no further from there.
Pifer, however, raises another point
When you look at the actual agreements, there were no final commitments by NATO not to enlarge.
In other words, no treaties. Only conversations.
Nothing was written down, but at the same time,
diplomatic commitments carry a lot of water in politics. This is how we ended the Cuban
Missile Crisis. And if it didn't matter, why would we have diplomats talk to each other?
Regardless of how serious these assurances were,
this debate arguably misses a more important point.
States don't uphold treaties just because they're written down.
If those leaders in those states decide to change course, then a treaty is not going to
stand in the way. So all the emphasis on writing things down… it puts the cart before the horse.
NATO’s expansion could be better explained by focusing
not on those conversations but on the countries involved.
On one side, the U.S., whose influence grew after the fall of the Soviet Union.
The NATO expansion was fundamentally a byproduct of the unipolar era.
Right of this moment in time where the U.S. had great power, very few constraints, and
at least some policymakers who had an idea that American power and influence applied to the world
would generate lots of goods for the United States, as well as good things for the world.
On another, the countries that joined NATO
It wasn't that NATO's said, let's enlarge. It was you had countries such as Poland emerging from
the records of the Warsaw Pact saying, we want to be a member of NATO, we want to be a member
of the European Union, and we are prepared to do all of the things that are required.
And finally, Russia, whose motivations are not limited to NATO
I think they're really three reasons behind what
Russia's doing. 1 - One is
the geopolitical concern. The Russians want a sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space,
and Ukraine is a very important part of that. 2 - One is a domestic political concern.
For the Kremlin, a western-oriented democratic, economically successful Ukraine
is a nightmare for the Kremlin because it leads to Russians asking, ‘why can't we have
the same political voice and the same democratic rights that they have in Ukraine?
3 - And then there's a third risk, which I just think is it's Vladimir Putin,
and he's quite emotional about Ukraine. He's very emotional and even angry about it.
Whether NATO should have kept its assurances is up for debate
We underestimated just how much antipathy there was in Moscow to NATO's existence.
Years of the US are downplaying the reassurances that were previously given and making Russia feel
like it could not trust the West have really narrowed the opportunity to resolve this crisis
But it's really sort of a pretext now. Mr. Putin has put together this list of
grievances against the West, But he didn't talk about them 20 years ago.
But those discussions were important not only for what they promised but also for what they showed:
a willingness to compromise and to not cross each other’s red lines.
Over the years, the situation around Russia changed, and more countries decided to join NATO
But it changed even more within Russia, as Putin’s grip on power strengthened
and he became more authoritarian and isolated