The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, formerly known as the Millennium Dam and
sometimes referred to as Hidase Dam, is a gravity dam on the Blue Nile River in
Ethiopia currently under construction. It is in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region of
Ethiopia, about 15 km east of the border with Sudan. At 6,000 MW, the dam will be
the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa when completed, as well as the
11th largest in the world sharing the spot with the Krasnoyarsk Dam. The
storage reservoir has a surface area of 1561 km² at level of 640 m, i.e. 146 m
behind the dam which holds a large volume of water equal to 79 billion m³.
According to the Ethiopian government, as of October 2014, the dam is 40%
complete. The potential impacts of the dam have
been the source of severe regional controversy. The Government of Egypt, a
country which relies heavily on the waters of the Nile, has demanded that
Ethiopia cease construction on the dam as a preconditions to negotiations,
sought regional support for its position, and some political leaders
have discussed methods to sabotage it. Egypt has planned a diplomatic
initiative to undermine support for the dam in the region as well as in other
countries supporting the project such as China, Italy, and Norway. However, other
nations in the Nile Basin Initiative have expressed support for the dam,
including Sudan, the only other nation downstream of the Blue Nile, which has
accused Egypt of inflaming the situation. Ethiopia denies that the dam
will have a negative impact on downstream water flows and contends that
the dam will in fact increase water flows to Egypt by reducing evaporation
on Lake Nasser. It has accused Egypt of being unreasonable; Egypt is demanding
to increase its share of the Nile's water flow from 66% to 90%.
Background The eventual site for the Grand
Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was identified by the United States Bureau of
Reclamation during a Blue Nile survey conducted between 1956 and 1964. The
Ethiopian Government surveyed the site in October 2009 and August 2010. In
November 2010, a design for the dam was submitted. On 31 March 2011, a day after
the project was made public, a US$4.8 billion contract was awarded without
competitive bidding to Salini Costruttori and the dam's foundation
stone was laid on 2 April 2011 by then Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. A rock
crushing plant has been constructed along with a small air strip for fast
transportation. The first two generators are expected to become operational after
44 months of construction. Egypt, which lies downstream, opposes the dam which
it believes will reduce the amount of water that it gets from the Nile. Zenawi
argued, based on an unnamed study, that the dam would not reduce water
availability downstream and would also regulate water for irrigation. In May
2011, it was announced that Ethiopia would share blueprints for the dam with
Egypt so the downstream impact could be examined.
The dam was originally called "Project X", and after its contract was announced
it was called the Millennium Dam. On 15 April 2011, the Council of Ministers
renamed it Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. In March 2012, the Ethiopian
government announced an upgrade to the power plant's design, increasing it from
5,250 MW to 6,000 MW. Ethiopia has a potential for around 45,000 MW of
hydropower. The dam is being funded by government bonds and private donations.
It is slated for completion in July 2017.
Design The gravity dam will be a 170 m tall,
1,800 m long and composed of roller-compacted concrete. The
structural volume of the dam will be 10,000,000 m3. Its reservoir will have a
storage capacity of 79 km3 and surface area of 1,561 km2 when at a normal
elevation of 640 m . The dam will have three spillways, the main one is located
to the left of the dam and will be controlled by six sector gates and have
a design discharge of 15,000 m3/s. Flanking either side of an uncontrolled
spillway at the center of the dam will be two power houses. The right will
contain 10 x 375 MW Francis turbine-generators and the left will
house six of the same turbine-generators. Supporting the dam
and reservoir will be a 5 km long and 50 m high rock-fill saddle dam. To the
right of the saddle dam will be a third spillway for emergencies.
Cost and financing The Ethiopian government has stated that
it intends to fund the entire cost of the dam by itself. It has issued a bond
targeted at Ethiopians in the country and abroad to that end. The turbines and
associated electrical equipment of the hydropower plants costing about US$1.8
billion are reportedly financed by Chinese banks. This would leave US$3
billion to be financed by the Ethiopian government through other means. The
estimated US$4.8 billion construction cost, apparently excluding the cost of
power transmission lines, corresponds to less than 15% of Ethiopia’s Gross
Domestic Product of US$41.906 billion in 2012.
Construction The main contractor will be the Italian
company Salini Costruttori, which also served as primary contractor for the
Gilgel Gibe II, Gilgel Gibe III, and Tana Beles dams. It is expected to
consume 10 million metric tons of concrete, the government has pledged to
use only domestically produced concrete. In March 2012, Salini awarded the
Italian firm Tratos Cavi SPA a contract to supply low- and high-voltage cable
for the dam. Alstom will provide the eight 375 MW Francis turbines for the
project's first phase, at a cost of €250 million. As of April 2013, nearly 32
percent of the project is complete. Site excavation and some concrete placement
is underway. One concrete batch plant has been completed with another under
construction. Diversion of the Blue Nile was completed on 28 May 2013 and marked
by a ceremony the same day. Benefits
A major benefit of the dam will be hydropower production. The electricity
to be produced by the hydropower plant is to be sold in Ethiopia and to
neighboring countries including Sudan and possibly Egypt. Selling the
electricity from the dam would require the construction of massive transmission
lines to major consumption centers such as Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa and
Sudan’s capital Khartoum, both located more than 400 km away from the dam.
These sales would come on top of electricity that is expected to be sold
from other large hydropower plants that are under construction in Ethiopia, such
as Gilgel Gibe III. = Alleged over-sizing =
The plant load factor of the planned hydropower plant – the expected
electricity production divided by the potential production if the power plant
was utilized permanently at full capacity – is only 33% compared to
45-60% for other, smaller hydropower plants in Ethiopia. Critics conclude
that a smaller dam would have been more cost-effective. According to Asfaw
Beyene, a Professor of Mechanical Engineering at San Diego State
University, the dam and its hydropower plant are massively over-sized: "GERD’s
available power output, based on the average of river flow throughout the
year and the dam height, is about 2,000 megawatts, not 6,000. There is little
doubt that the system has been designed for a peak flow rate that only happens
during the 2-3 months of the rainy season. Targeting near peak or peak flow
rate makes no economic sense." Environmental and social impacts
It appears that some form of environmental study has been undertaken,
since the press reported that an international panel reviewed an
environmental study in 2012. The NGO International Rivers has commissioned a
local researcher to make a field visit because so little information is
available. Public consultation about dams in
Ethiopia is affected by the political climate in the country. International
Rivers reports that "conversations with civil society groups in Ethiopia
indicate that questioning the government’s energy sector plans is
highly risky, and there are legitimate concerns of government persecution.
Because of this political climate, no groups are actively pursuing the issues
surrounding hydro-power dams, nor publicly raising concerns about the
risks. In this situation, extremely limited and inadequate public
consultation has been organised" during the implementation of major dams. In
June 2011, Ethiopian journalist Reeyot Alemu was imprisoned after she raised
questions about the proposed Grand Millennium Dam. Staff of International
Rivers have received death threats. In the meantime, the late prime minister
Meles Zenawi called opponents of the project "hydropower extremists" and
"bordering on the criminal" at a conference of the International
Hydropower Association in Addis Abeba in April 2011. At the conference, the
Ethiopian state power utility was embraced as a "Sustainability Partner"
by the IHA. = Impact on Ethiopia =
Since the Blue Nile is a highly seasonal river, the dam would reduce flooding
downstream of the dam, including on the 40 km stretch within Ethiopia. On the
one hand, the reduction of flooding is beneficial since it protects settlements
from flood damage. On the other hand, it can be harmful, if flood recession
agriculture is practiced in the river valley downstream of the dam since it
deprives fields from being watered. The dam could also serve as a bridge across
the Blue Nile, complementing a bridge that was under construction in 2009
further upstream. An independent assessment estimated that at least 5,110
people will be resettled from the reservoir and downstream area, and the
dam is expected to lead to a significant change in the fishery. According to an
independent researcher who conducted research in the area where the dam is
being built, near to 20,000 people are being relocated. According to the same
source, "a solid plan in place for the relocated people" and those who have
already been resettled "were given more than they expected in compensation".
Locals have never seen a dam before and "are not completely sure what a dam
actually is", despite community meetings in which affected people were informed
about the impacts of the dam on their livelihoods. Except for a few older
people, almost all locals interviewed "expressed hope that the project brings
something of benefit to them" in terms of education and health services or
electricity supply based on the information available to them. At least
some of the new communities for those relocated will be downstream of the dam.
The area around the reservoir will consist of a 5 km buffer zone for
malaria control that will not be available for settlement. In at least
some upstream areas erosion control measures will be undertaken in order to
reduce siltation of the reservoir. = Impact on Sudan and Egypt =
The precise impact of the dam on the downstream countries is not known. Egypt
fears a temporary reduction of water availability due to the filling of the
dam and a permanent reduction because of evaporation from the reservoir. The
reservoir volume is about equivalent to the annual flow of the Nile at the
Sudanese-Egyptian border. This loss to downstream countries would most likely
be spread over several years. Reportedly during the filling of the reservoir 11
to 19bn cubic meters of water per year could be lost, which would cause two
million farmers to lose their income during the period of filling the
reservoir. Allegedly, it would also "affect Egypt's electricity supply by 25
to 40 percent, while the dam is being built". However, hydropower accounts for
less than 12 percent of total electricity production in Egypt in 2010,
so that a temporary reduction of 25 percent in hydropower production
translates into an overall temporary reduction in Egyptian electricity
production of less than 3 percent. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam could
also lead to a permanent lowering of the water level in Lake Nasser, if floods
are stored instead in Ethiopia. This would reduce the current evaporation of
more than 10 billion cubic meter per year, but it would also reduce the
ability of the Aswan High Dam to produce hydropower to the tune of a 100 MW loss
of generating capacity for a 3 m reduction of the water level.
The dam will retain silt. It will thus increase the useful lifetime of dams in
Sudan – such as the Roseires Dam, the Sennar Dam and the Merowe Dam – and of
the Aswan High Dam in Egypt. The beneficial and harmful effects of flood
control would affect the Sudanese portion of the Blue Nile, just as it
would affect the Ethiopian part of the Blue Nile valley downstream of the dam.
Specifically, the GERD would reduce seasonal flooding of the plains
surrounding the reservoir of the Roseires Dam located at Ad-Damazin, just
as the Tekeze Dam, by retaining a reservoir in the deep gorges of the
northern Ethiopian Highlands, had reduced flooding at Sudan's Khashm
el-Girba Dam. The reservoir, located in the temperate
Ethiopian Highlands and up to 200 m deep, will experience considerably less
evaporation than downstream reservoirs such as Lake Nasser in Egypt, which
loses 12% of its water flow due to evaporation as the water sits in the
lake for 10 months. Through the controlled release of water from the
reservoir to downstream, this could facilitate an increase of up to 5% in
Egypt's water supply, and presumably that of Sudan as well.
Reactions: cooperation and condemnation Egypt has serious concerns about the
project so that it requested to be granted inspection allowance on the
design and the studies of the dam, in order to allay its fears, but Ethiopia
has denied the request unless Egypt relinquishes its veto on water
allocation. After a meeting between the Ministers of Water of Egypt, Sudan and
Ethiopia in March 2012, Sudan's President Bashir said that he supported
the building of the dam. A Nile treaty signed by the upper
riparian states in 2010, the Cooperative Framework Agreement, has not been signed
by either Egypt or Sudan, as they claim it violates the 1959 treaty which gives
Sudan and Egypt exclusive rights to the Nile's waters. The Nile Basin Initiative
provides a framework for dialogue among all Nile riparian countries.
Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan established an International Panel of Experts to review
and assess the study reports of the dam. The panel consists of 10 members; 6 from
the three countries and 4 international in the fields of water resources and
hydrologic modelling, dam engineering, socioeconomic, and environmental. The
panel held its fourth meeting in Addis Ababa in November 2012. It reviewed
documents about the environmental impact of the dam and visited the dam site. The
panel submitted its preliminary report to the respective governments at the end
of May 2013. Although the full report has not been made public, and will not
be until it is reviewed by the governments, Egypt and Ethiopia both
released details. The Ethiopian government stated that, according to the
report, "the design of the dam is based on international standards and
principles" without naming those standards and principles. It also said
that the dam "offers high benefit for all the three countries and would not
cause significant harm on both the lower riparian countries". According to
Egyptian government, however, the report "recommended changing and amending the
dimensions and the size of the dam". On 3 June 2013 while discussing the
International Panel of Experts report with President Mohammad Morsi, Egyptian
political leaders suggested methods to destroy the dam, including support for
anti-government rebels. Unbeknownst to those at the meeting, the discussion was
televised live. Ethiopia requested that the Egyptian Ambassador explain the
meeting. Morsi's top aide apologized for the "unintended embarrassment" and his
cabinet released a statement promoting ""good neighborliness, mutual respect
and the pursuit of joint interests without either party harming the other."
An aide to the Ethiopian Prime Minister stated that Egypt is "...entitled to day
dreaming" and cited Egypt's past of trying to destabilize Ethiopia. Morsi
reportedly believes that it is better to engage Ethiopia rather than attempt to
force them. However, on 10 June 2013, he said that "all options are open" because
"Egypt's water security cannot be violated at all," clarifying that he was
"not calling for war," but that he would not allow Egypt's water supply to be
endangered. In January 2014, Egypt left negotiations
over the dam, citing Ethiopian intransigence. Ethiopia countered that
Egypt had set an immediate halt on construction and an increase of its
share to 90% as the preconditions, which were deemed wholly unreasonable. Egypt
has since launched a diplomatic offensive to undermine support for the
dam, sending its Foreign Minister, Nabil Fahmi to Tanzania and the Democratic
Republic of the Congo to garner support. Egyptian media outlets declared the
visits productive and that the leaders of those nations had expressed
"understanding" and "support" of Egypt's position. However, the accuracy of such
statements are questionable; when Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Karti
criticised Egypt for "inflaming the situation" through its statements on the
dam, and that it was considering the interests of both sides Al-Masry Al-Youm
declared that Sudan had "proclaimed its neutrality". The campaign is intensive
and wide-reaching; in March 2014, for the first time, just Uganda, Kenya,
Sudan, and Tanzania were invited by Egypt to participate in the Nile Hockey
Tournament. Foreign Minister Fahmi and Water Resources Minister Muhammad Abdul
Muttalib planned visits to Italy and Norway to express their concerns and try
to compel them to pull their support for the GERD.
In April 2014 Ethiopia's Prime Minister invited Egypt and Sudan to another round
of talks over the dam and Nabil Fahmi stated in May 2014 that Egypt was still
open to negotiations. Following an August 2014 Tripartite Ministerial-level
meeting, the three nations agreed to set up a Tripartite National Committee
meeting over the dam. The first TNC meeting occurred from 20 to 22 September
2014 in Ethiopia. See also
Water politics References