welcome to how to win the Hunger Games
part 2 thank goodness there's not a part
3 to this series otherwise we'd have to
break it in half and make two
unnecessarily slow episodes out of it am
i right
hello Internet
welcome to film theory we're devoting a
second episode to legally sanctioned
child killing unlike a life advice
vlogger except instead of teaching you
how to do quinoa five ways I'm teaching
you how to manipulate a gladiator style
bloodbath to make sure you're the sole
survivor so you know the usual stuff
when we left off you had just avoided
death at the cornucopia and you also
managed to grab a mystery bag on the way
out so now you're equipped and running
blindly through the arena in a
relatively good arena you have three
days until dehydration so classic
survival theory says everything else can
wait water is your first priority
unfortunately the game makers know this
too we don't know the layout of every
Hunger Games just from the movies or
even the books but we do know nine of
them over the nine arenas we know
spanning 25 years of Hunger Games six of
those arenas used water as a weapon
against the tributes the most common way
is through thirst either making water
poisonous setting the arena in a desert
or making it accessible in some weird
way like tapping into trees so
statistically we know that two-thirds of
the time there will be some major water
issue almost definitely a shortage
so while Cato is still sharpening his
katana back at the cornucopia scout the
arena find feasible water sources and
test them slowly so you can avoid
getting poisoned if you've managed to
find a water source on your first day
you'll be doing better than the majority
of your peers and besides 40% of them
already died at the cornucopia this
morning so more water for you I guess at
this point I sense that the comments are
starting to raise a very valid point
couldn't you survive better out there
with a partner now you're getting into
some of the most complicated strategy in
the game the part that involves everyone
else in survival theory yes there is
really a thing called survival theory
and no it's not the next spin-off Theory
Channel hello internet welcome to
survival theory in survival Theory there
are two schools of thought for solo
versus group survival the advantages of
solo survival are that you move quicker
you leave less of a trail so that you
can't be tracked and you get a bigger
share of the food and water when the
times
lights all of those are a really big
deal in The Hunger Games but there's
also an argument to be made the other
way around group survival allows you to
hunt in a wider radius faster and
doubles the odds that one of you will be
carrying something useful when you need
it the most
but there's a fundamental problem here
The Hunger Games doesn't reflect
traditional survival theory in survival
Theory the goal is for everyone to
survive the goal in the Hunger Games is
to be the only survivor which means that
no matter how awesome your group is
eventually you know you'll all kill each
other and that changes everything
in fact the further into the games you
get the scarier a group prospect becomes
you're okay for the first couple days
because there are enough enemies around
to force you to stick together past that
it's actually a matter of game theory ah
not of that game theory but rather game
theory game theory that we're talking
about on film theory not game theory
over on game theory we're so meta right
now fun fact this is the first time in
episode is covered game theory and it's
not happening over on game theory ironic
anyway it's sort of like the prisoner's
dilemma where if you stick with your
group you have good odds of going to the
end but you're tempted to betray them
the whole time because only one of you
can win we think about this your group
of three teams up at the beginning of
the game to take out Cato because he's
the biggest threat it takes you eight
days to hunt him down and kill him but
you massacred with your amazing knife
skills that you hold last episode go
team good job one step closer to winning
maybe there are still three or four
other players running around in the game
but your biggest mutual threat is now
gone and all of a sudden the reality
hits you this little threesome can't go
on forever only one of you can win so
should you wait until everyone else is
gone or do you get a leg up by killing
the other two members of your group in
their sleep if you do your odds go from
one in six to one in four and those
statistics matter a lot there's no way
to predict where the tipping point is
for your group to turn on you it's all
situational but there are even more risk
factors that make being in a group worse
people who form groups are often doing
it to protect themselves from the most
aggressive players think of routining up
with Katniss to protect yourself from
the Careers but what happens when
Katniss has bow and arrow to almost
everyone else
now Katniss is the biggest threat to
and statistically Roo has the best
chance of winning by killing her off
when Katniss doesn't expect it so if
you're a leader of a group early on you
become the biggest threat the fastest
I've seen enough seasons of Survivor to
know that the most aggressive players
are the first to get thrown out by their
own alliance in The Hunger Games you
don't get to be the second person to
betray your group anyone who isn't first
is dead as a result stay solo the group
psychology of the arena also brings us
to the last big issue you have to face
directly should you hunt or be hunted
it's basically the question of whether
the odds are in your favor by playing
offensively or defensively and it's more
complicated than you think statistically
if 16 out of the 27 or about 60% laid
defensively until they absolutely had to
telling you that you should only be
aggressive if necessary and if you need
more reasons consider this in the 74th
Hunger Games 5 out of the 27 kills were
revenge kill in the 75th Games there
were three even though those games only
lasted three days and practically every
tribute was Katniss's a lie the
probability of a revenge kill goes up
dramatically if you're the one hunting
everyone else down especially if you're
trying to pick off members of an
alliance like the Careers killing one of
them dramatically raises your chances of
being targeted and killed by a different
one any time you signal the fact that
you're a threat you're statistically
more likely to die so laying low and
waiting for everyone else to stop
surviving or turn on each other is not
only the safest bet but also the most
effective route to victory so there you
have it based on sheer probability your
clearest path to winning the Hunger
Games is to train for survival grab
tools early sit alone at lunch only use
your knife on rabbits and play for the
long game does it feel like something's
missing here because it is so far I
haven't mentioned the one factor about
The Hunger Games that eclipses every
other strategy in the arena The Hunger
Games isn't a competition it's a
competitive reality show I mentioned
earlier that I've watched a lot of
Survivor and I've definitely seen enough
to know that no amount of stealth
survival skills or killer instinct is
any match for reality TV
producers and this should be a surprise
to anyone in the movies they mention all
the time how important the hunger games
are for the image of the capital in the
movies and in the books we see the game
makers making choices that shove
tributes closer together further apart
to make the games more interesting in
case anyone hasn't died in a while we
see them target tributes with specific
traps aimed at them the games aren't any
more real than a reality TV show we
watch now I mean except that they're
really killing children that part is is
much more real but the purpose is insane
when we watch reality TV we want a good
story compelling characters someone to
root for someone to root against we want
to see growth development and in a lot
of ways how people survive under the
ridiculous pressure that the show
producers put them on nerd there's a
reason the game makers only flooded an
arena once why they only set the hunger
games in the Arctic once because it was
boring no one cares about kids who all
drown or ones that just freeze to death
instead of killing each other The Hunger
Games is about providing a good story
statistically what gets people through
the Hunger Games might have to do with
their abilities yes but it has more to
do with how they impact ratings just
look at the collection of interesting
winners and Catching Fire their
interviews with Caesar all tell
interesting compelling stories about who
they are as individuals they all have
clear brands and are highly recognizable
the girl with the sharpen teeth the girl
who's totally edgy and goes off the
rails a brother and sister and of course
the most classic example Peeta and
Katniss the star-crossed lovers these
people are survivors because they know
how to make themselves memorable they've
created interesting stories around
themselves which is why they were able
to survive their first game so let's go
through again and see what the strategy
looks like now you need to build your
story early and there's no way you can
play the cute kid card this is a show
where you're killing off children so
everybody is pretty sympathetic and sure
Roo may be an underdog that people like
to root for but she's such an underdog
that her odds of survival are
astronomical
it wouldn't be believable for the game
to shape her into a winner the actual
movie Katniss immediately stands out
from the crowd when she volunteers in
place of her sister she's increasing her
odds of dying by entering the Hunger
Games but statistically she's lowering
her chances of
as much as possible by winning the
audience's sympathy immediately if this
were America's Got Talent that's a
guaranteed ticket through to the
semi-finals people immediately know who
she is she's immediately established
herself as a brand and as a potentially
interesting hero story or tragic story
now while you're in the capital your
best chances to win the audience over
are with the story about yourself this
is where Katniss's love story gives her
another statistical advantage this time
Peeta pushes the odds in their favor by
setting them both apart from the other
tributes not for their skills not for
their abilities but for the story the
audience can watch unfold as long as the
producers keep them alive so what about
the training well here the game makers
are watching you think of this like your
casting call you need to pick a skill
that distinguishes you from the crowd
that shows that you're going to be an
interesting character to follow sure
anyone can throw a javelin or do a
memory puzzle but camouflaging yourself
into the room Keita's strategy here
brilliant because it's not only super
deadly but it's also super memorable and
the game makers your most influential
audience members are gonna remember you
Katniss firing an arrow at the game
makers again shows that she's super
deadly and the super interesting
character this matters a lot
statistically the higher your game
makers score the better your chances of
winning two games besides your score
making you look more skilled more
importantly it makes you more memorable
audiences remember the one kid who
scored an 11 they don't remember the
dozen or so who scored a stick so now
that you're in the arena what do you do
actually the same stuff that I told you
over the last two episodes avoid the
Cornucopia not only because it's your
best chance of survival now but also
because it makes sure that your good
character remains intact for the
audience you look like the underdog with
your backpack full of twine instead of
leather faced with ten dead bodies
strewn around you remember the goal is
to keep sympathy on your side as long as
possible so don't blow it by killing off
that six-year-old from district 10 on
the first day next you're gonna survive
just like we talked about in the last
episode not just because it's your best
odds in the arena but because it
demonstrates your clever survival skills
to the audience that they're rooting for
a smart and resourceful person I mean
have you ever routed a
against Bear Grylls I don't think so you
admire him for being resourceful you
also go solo not just because of
survival theory but because it allows
you to more fully distinguish your
personality to the audience they get to
know you as an individual rather than
your group and even though they might
like you in a group at first the longer
you stay in an alliance the more likely
you're gonna have to start killing
people off no one likes someone who
turns on their teammates at the last
minute so being in a group hurts your
chances of keeping the audience on your
side in the long run from there you'll
want to continue to play defensively
join the audience that you only kill
when you absolutely have to you'll wait
for the game traps to kill off the last
couple of opponents ideally you get to
mercy kill one or two of them and
finally you win but you Rin because the
audience wanted you to win because the
producers wanted to keep you around for
the storyline and the views sure you
could make it about survival but it's
really about whether you accomplish the
goal of the Hunger Games entertaining
the capital and creating a compelling
story about 23 kids dying to remind
everyone about the power of the games so
where does that leave us can you
actually make the odds ever in your
favor the answer is absolutely yes
we've shown you that everything you do
from the way you eat train survive play
and even kill people will put the odds
very much in your favor but we also
learned that even if you have the
absolute best survival skills out there
if you're not telling a good story you
can have your face projected into the
sky at any point in the end you should
do everything you can to stack the odds
in your favor but more importantly you
should remember that your very best
strategy is to have the audience stack
those odds for you but hey that's just a
theory
a film theory and gosh